Emelec vs Mushuc Runa SC Prediction
Ecuador · Regular Season - 21
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
83%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.18
SignalSTRONGModel52%SurpriseMediumGap-2.0%
Value Analysis
62%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 2.5 Goals
1.69
SignalSOLIDModel42%SurpriseHighGap+6.7%
Emelec Rest
3 days
Mushuc Runa SC Rest
3 days
Emelec vs Mushuc Runa SC: the result in context
Emelec and Mushuc Runa SC drew 1-1 in the Liga Pro on 24 Jul 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Their history points to a close game: 10 previous meetings produced 1.8 goals a game.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
154%1.80
X29%3.40
217%4.25
Double Chance
1X83%1.18
X247%1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes46%1.92
No54%1.75
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.5 + 0.81 = 2.31
Over 1.564%1.34
Over 2.538%2.06
Over 3.518%3.65
Under 1.536%3.00
Under 2.562%1.69
Under 3.582%1.24
Corners
Corner forecasts not available for this match
Cards
Card forecasts not available for this match
Match Events
28'J. RuizAssist: F. Pizzini
45'R. BiojoUnsportsmanlike conduct
55'O. Herrera INM. Carabali out
62'F. Pizzini INL. Fragozo out
64'R. Carrillo(Penalty)
67'G. NapoliFoul
79'J. Ruiz INA. Viteri out
79'G. Napoli INJ. Cevallos out
80'C. Angulo INK. Peralta out
80'J. Cusme INF. Carabali out
83'E. Davila INJ. Gonzalez out
83'R. Ibarra INB. Corozo out
89'M. Perea INJ. Caicedo out
Lineups
EmelecMushuc Runa SC
4-2-3-1Coach: Paul Velez Ordonez AngelAvg ratingAvg rating
12P. Ortiz
80O. Herrera
C2A. Leguizamón
4E. Segura
3I. Guerrico
5A. Mina
6V. Griffith
10F. Pizzini
8G. Nápoli
19J. Ruiz Gómez
7L. Klimowicz
C25R. Formento
99C. Angulo
4R. Biojo
50J. Cusme
33J. Hernández
5N. Dávila
8A. Zambrano
7T. Minda
30R. Ibarra
28M. Perea
9R. CarrilloEmelec Substitutes
18Mathias Carabalí
15Luis Fragozo62'for F. Pizzini
21José Cevallos79'for G. Napoli
24Andrés Viteri
1Mario Valero
27Luis Fernando León
51Stalin Valencia
25Rafael Narváez
16Sergio Quintero
28Tobar Bolivar
17Jaime Ayoví
Mushuc Runa SC Substitutes
26Kevin Peralta80'for C. Angulo
12Franklin Carabali80'for J. Cusme
18Jackson González83'for E. Davila
19Bryan Corozo83'for R. Ibarra
61Jefferson Caicedo89'for M. Perea
22Felix Collaguazo
42Adonnis Pabón
2José Flor
37José Luis Quiñones
23Lucas Lemos
52Derlys Gómez
Match Stats
EmelecMushuc Runa SC 54%Ball Possession46%
11Corner Kicks7
1Yellow Cards1
13Total Shots7
4Shots on Goal3
6Shots off Goal1
10Shots Inside Box3
3Shots Outside Box4
3Blocked Shots3
6Fouls11
2Offsides1
2Goalkeeper Saves3
398Total Passes339
322Passes Accurate267
81%Pass Accuracy79%
Team Comparison
EmelecMushuc Runa SC1471Elo Rating 1447
1.06Attack 1.21
1.26Defense 0.67
19%Hit Rate 0%
19.0Shots per Game 15.5
4.8Shots on Target 5.0
5.0Corners per Game 6.3
3.4Cards per Game 2.6
AI Insights
📉Home Underperforming
📉Away Underperforming
Game State Tendencies
Emelec- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Mushuc Runa SC- Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
- Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.8 vs 0.4 in second half)
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
Emelec4Wins · 40%Draws440%
Mushuc Runa SC2Wins · 20%
2Wins · 20%1.8Avg Goals
20%Both teams scored2 of 10
30%3+ goals3 of 10
Previous meetings
23/03/2026Mushuc Runa SCEmelec20
20/07/2025EmelecMushuc Runa SC10
30/03/2025Mushuc Runa SCEmelec11
12/08/2024Mushuc Runa SCEmelec30
09/03/2024EmelecMushuc Runa SC00
23/09/2023EmelecMushuc Runa SC31
24/04/2023Mushuc Runa SCEmelec00
02/10/2022Mushuc Runa SCEmelec00
08/05/2022EmelecMushuc Runa SC40
06/11/2021EmelecMushuc Runa SC20
Recent Form
Emelec3W4D3L
20/07/2026
Independiente del ValleEmelec
17/07/2026Independiente del ValleEmelec61
L
Orense SCEmelec02
W13/07/2026Emelec
Barcelona SC00
D06/07/2026
Delfin SCEmelec11
D01/06/2026Emelec
Universidad Catolica
EmelecUniversidad Catolica10
W20/05/2026
Daquilema FCEmelec
Daquilema FCEmelec10090
L18/05/2026
Manta FCEmelec
Manta FCEmelec00
D10/05/2026Emelec
Libertad
EmelecLibertad11
D04/05/2026
Leones del NorteEmelec
Leones del NorteEmelec20
L26/04/2026Emelec
LDU de Quito
EmelecLDU de Quito10
WMushuc Runa SC2W2D6L
20/07/2026Mushuc Runa SCOrense SC
MacaraMushuc Runa SCUniversidad CatolicaMushuc Runa SC
Mushuc Runa SCOrense SC21
W14/07/2026MacaraMushuc Runa SC21
L11/07/2026Mushuc Runa SCIndependiente del Valle
06/07/2026Mushuc Runa SCIndependiente del Valle14
LUniversidad CatolicaMushuc Runa SC23
W03/06/2026
Gualaceo SCMushuc Runa SC
Gualaceo SCMushuc Runa SC10
L31/05/2026Mushuc Runa SC
Aucas
Mushuc Runa SCAucas00
D23/05/2026Mushuc Runa SC
Guayaquil City FC
Mushuc Runa SCGuayaquil City FC22
D17/05/2026Leones del NorteMushuc Runa SC
Leones del NorteMushuc Runa SC31
L12/05/2026Mushuc Runa SCLDU de Quito
Mushuc Runa SCLDU de Quito13
L03/05/2026Delfin SCMushuc Runa SC
Delfin SCMushuc Runa SC10
LReferee Profile
4.45Cards per match
3.91Yellow cards per match
0.55Red cards per match
24.6Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
4.45 cards a match, 0.34 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.79).
Cards come from 22 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
Liga Pro: Regular season
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 73:33 | +40 | 74 | WWDLW |
| 2 | Universidad Catolica | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 51:27 | +24 | 51 | DLDWL |
| 3 | Macara | 30 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 41:33 | +8 | 51 | DWWWW |
| 4 | Aucas | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 33:28 | +5 | 50 | LWLDL |
| 5 | LDU de Quito | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 31:24 | +7 | 46 | DLLDW |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 32:25 | +7 | 44 | DLWLL |
| 7 | Libertad | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 33:34 | -1 | 41 | LDLWW |
| 8 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 31:32 | -1 | 39 | DWWLL |
| 9 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 33:36 | -3 | 39 | DDWLW |
| 10 | Emelec | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 25:34 | -9 | 39 | WLLWL |
| 11 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 35:38 | -3 | 38 | WLLDL |
| 12 |  Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 25:37 | -12 | 36 | WLWWD |
| 13 | Orense SC | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 36:47 | -11 | 33 | LDWDD |
| 14 |  Tecnico Universitario | 30 | 10 | 2 | 18 | 28:42 | -14 | 32 | LDWLL |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 19:31 | -12 | 28 | LWLWW |
| 16 | Manta FC | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 17:42 | -25 | 21 | WWLLW |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 73:33 | 74 |
| 2 | Universidad Catolica | 30 | 51:27 | 51 |
| 3 | Macara | 30 | 41:33 | 51 |
| 4 | Aucas | 30 | 33:28 | 50 |
| 5 | LDU de Quito | 30 | 31:24 | 46 |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 32:25 | 44 |
| 7 | Libertad | 30 | 33:34 | 41 |
| 8 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 31:32 | 39 |
| 9 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 33:36 | 39 |
| 10 | Emelec | 30 | 25:34 | 39 |
| 11 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 35:38 | 38 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 25:37 | 36 |
| 13 | Orense SC | 30 | 36:47 | 33 |
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 30 | 28:42 | 32 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 30 | 19:31 | 28 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 30 | 17:42 | 21 |
Liga Pro: Placement Group
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Libertad | 36 | 14 | 9 | 13 | 43:40 | +3 | 51 | LDLWW |
| 8 | Guayaquil City FC | 36 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 39:44 | -5 | 48 | DDWLW |
| 9 | Leones del Norte | 36 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 40:41 | -1 | 47 | DWWLL |
| 10 | Emelec | 36 | 12 | 9 | 15 | 32:43 | -11 | 45 | WLLWL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Libertad | 36 | 43:40 | 51 |
| 8 | Guayaquil City FC | 36 | 39:44 | 48 |
| 9 | Leones del Norte | 36 | 40:41 | 47 |
| 10 | Emelec | 36 | 32:43 | 45 |
Liga Pro: Relegation Group
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Deportivo Cuenca | 36 | 13 | 8 | 15 | 33:42 | -9 | 47 | WLWWD |
| 12 | Mushuc Runa SC | 36 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 43:50 | -7 | 43 | WLLDL |
| 13 | Orense SC | 36 | 10 | 9 | 17 | 43:53 | -10 | 39 | LDWDD |
| 14 | Delfin SC | 36 | 10 | 8 | 18 | 31:43 | -12 | 38 | LWLWW |
| 15 | Tecnico Universitario | 36 | 11 | 4 | 21 | 35:49 | -14 | 37 | LDWLL |
| 16 | Manta FC | 36 | 9 | 6 | 21 | 27:52 | -25 | 33 | WWLLW |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Deportivo Cuenca | 36 | 33:42 | 47 |
| 12 | Mushuc Runa SC | 36 | 43:50 | 43 |
| 13 | Orense SC | 36 | 43:53 | 39 |
| 14 | Delfin SC | 36 | 31:43 | 38 |
| 15 | Tecnico Universitario | 36 | 35:49 | 37 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 36 | 27:52 | 33 |
PromotionRelegation
Explore more predictions
This match
More Liga Pro matches
- Macara vs Deportivo Cuenca 22/07/26
- Independiente del Valle vs Tecnico Universitario 22/07/26
- Manta FC vs LDU de Quito 23/07/26
- Orense SC vs Aucas 23/07/26
- Tecnico Universitario vs Manta FC 26/07/26
- Orense SC vs Independiente del Valle 26/07/26
- Deportivo Cuenca vs Emelec 28/07/26
- Libertad vs Orense SC 01/08/26
About the Emelec vs Mushuc Runa SC forecast
The forecasts for this Liga Pro match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Emelec and Mushuc Runa SC in the Liga Pro table
Emelec and Mushuc Runa SC are close in the Liga Pro table, 10th and 11th, with 1 point between them. League goal record so far: Emelec 25-34, Mushuc Runa SC 35-38. The full standings are on the Liga Pro Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.