Toronto FC vs CF Montreal Prediction

Toronto FC
2-1
Finished
HT 0-0
CF Montreal
BMO Field, Toronto·Allen Chapman 10/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
70%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.28
SignalSOLIDModel50%SurpriseMediumGap-8.3%
Value Analysis
64%Trust
Corners Total
Corners Under 10.5
1.61
SignalSOLIDModel64%SurpriseMediumGap+3.1%
Toronto FC Rest
13 days
CF Montreal Rest
13 days

Toronto FC vs CF Montreal: the result in context

Toronto FC beat CF Montreal 2-1 in the Major League Soccer on 10 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

When these two meet, goals usually follow: 3.7 a game across 10 meetings, with both teams scoring in 7. Referee Allen Chapman averages 3.55 cards a game, 0.85 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
48%1.95
X
25%3.90
2
27%3.58
Double Chance
1X
73%1.28
X2
52%1.84
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%1.47
No
38%2.53
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.71 + 1.15 = 2.86
Over 1.5
82%1.14
Over 2.5
60%1.51
Over 3.5
39%2.27
Under 1.5
18%5.36
Under 2.5
40%2.46
Under 3.5
61%1.61
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.2 + 4.6 = 9.9
Over 8.5
61%1.43
Over 9.5
48%1.67
Over 10.5
36%2.19
Under 8.5
39%2.65
Under 9.5
52%2.10
Under 10.5
64%1.61
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.8 + 2.2 = 4.1
Over 3.5
58%1.91
Over 4.5
38%2.86
Under 3.5
42%1.82
Under 4.5
62%1.38

Match Events

23'Luka Gavran INWilliam Yarbrough out
51'Daniel Rios
55'Brayan VeraTime wasting
61'Jonathan Osorio INDjordje Mihailovic out
72'Alexis Sanchez INFabian Herbers out
72'Victor Loturi INSamuel Piette out
82'Alonso INLewis Morgan out
84'Brandan CraigFoul
86'Brandan Craig INEfrain Morales out
86'Daniel Rios INWikelman·Carmona out
87'Luca PetrassoTime wasting
90+3'Lewis MorganAssist: Niklas Dorsch
90+5'Djordje MihailovicAssist: Theo Corbeanu
90+6'Richie Laryea

Lineups

Toronto FC
4-3-3Coach: R. Fraser
CF Montreal
3-4-2-1Coach: Philippe Eullaffroy
Avg rating6.92
Avg rating6.44
L. Gavran6.21L. Gavran
R. Laryea6.122R. Laryea
B. Kuscevic7.213B. Kuscevic
N. Gomis6.915N. Gomis
Matheus Pereira6.53M. Pereira
J. Osorio6.321J. Osorio
Alonso Coello6.514A. Coello
N. Dorsch7.46N. Dorsch
T. Corbeanu7.47T. Corbeanu
J. Sargent6.79J. Sargent
D. Sallói6.420D. Sallói
S. Breza6.11S. Breza
J. Neal6.72J. Neal
B. Craig6.25B. Craig
B. Vera6.44B. Vera
D. Bugaj6.527D. Bugaj
V. Loturi6.422V. Loturi
M. Longstaff6.38M. Longstaff
L. Petrasso6.013L. Petrasso
D. Ríos7.414D. Ríos
A. Sánchez6.810A. Sánchez
P. Owusu6.69P. Owusu

Toronto FC Substitutes

23W. Yarbrough23'for Luka Gavran7.6
11D. Etienne
96R. Chukwu
17Emilio Aristizábal Chavarriaga
38J. Gilman
10D. Mihailović61'for Jonathan Osorio90+5'7.7
12Z. Monlouis
90L. Morgan82'for Alonso90+3'8.1
27A. Piedrahita

CF Montreal Substitutes

16W. Carmona86'for Daniel Rios6.2
21F. Herbers72'for Alexis Sanchez6.8
41S. Keita
24E. Morales86'for Brandan Craig6.7
7D. Pereira
6S. Piette72'for Victor Loturi5.9
28V. Radojević
23N. Streit
18H. Synchuk

Match Stats

Toronto FCCF Montreal
52%Ball Possession48%
8Corner Kicks6
1Yellow Cards3
14Total Shots16
5Shots on Goal7
7Shots off Goal5
11Shots Inside Box12
3Shots Outside Box4
2Blocked Shots4
9Fouls17
4Offsides2
6Goalkeeper Saves3
352Total Passes341
272Passes Accurate257
17Free Kicks9

Team Comparison

Toronto FCToronto FC
CF MontrealCF Montreal
1569Elo Rating 1478
1.76Attack 0.96
1.36Defense 1.21
46%Hit Rate 17%
11.2Shots per Game 11.4
4.4Shots on Target 3.5
4.0Corners per Game 4.7
2.0Cards per Game 2.0

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy2.85 goals
📈BTTS Trend70% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

Toronto FCToronto FC
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.3 vs 0.5 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
CF MontrealCF Montreal
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

Toronto FCToronto FC3Wins · 30%
Draws330%
CF MontrealCF Montreal4Wins · 40%
3.7Avg Goals
70%Both teams scored7 of 10
60%3+ goals6 of 10

Previous meetings

Major League Soccer17/07/2026
CF MontrealToronto FC
00
Major League Soccer31/08/2025
Toronto FCCF Montreal
11
Major League Soccer17/05/2025
CF MontrealToronto FC
16
Canadian Championship01/05/2025
Toronto FCCF Montreal
2232
Major League Soccer21/07/2024
CF MontrealToronto FC
01
Major League Soccer19/05/2024
Toronto FCCF Montreal
51
Major League Soccer21/08/2023
Toronto FCCF Montreal
23
Major League Soccer14/05/2023
CF MontrealToronto FC
20
Canadian Championship10/05/2023
Toronto FCCF Montreal
12
Major League Soccer05/09/2022
Toronto FCCF Montreal
34

Referee Profile

Allen Chapman138 matches

3.55Cards per match
3.46Yellow cards per match
0.10Red cards per match
21.4Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Allen Chapman3.55
Other referees4.40

3.55 cards a match, 0.85 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.40).

Cards come from 134 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Nashville SCNashville SC30207364:23+4167DWWWW
2Inter MiamiInter Miami301510573:51+2255WWWLD
3New England RevolutionNew England Revolution301641049:41+852WWLLW
4Chicago FireChicago Fire301461052:44+848LLWWW
5CharlotteCharlotte30138953:45+847DLWLW
6Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia Union301371061:48+1346DWWWW
7Orlando City SCOrlando City SC301251358:70-1241WDWLL
8FC CincinnatiFC Cincinnati301091162:71-939WLLWL
9New York Red BullsNew York Red Bulls301061439:56-1736LLWLW
10Toronto FCToronto FC308121046:55-936WDWLL
11Columbus CrewColumbus Crew301051546:47-135WWLWW
12New York City FCNew York City FC308101243:41+234DLLDL
13DC UnitedDC United307121138:53-1533LLWLD
14Atlanta United FCAtlanta United FC30861637:51-1430LWLDW
15CF MontrealCF Montreal30671736:60-2425DLLWL
#TeamMPGPts
1Nashville SCNashville SC3064:2367
2Inter MiamiInter Miami3073:5155
3New England RevolutionNew England Revolution3049:4152
4Chicago FireChicago Fire3052:4448
5CharlotteCharlotte3053:4547
6Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia Union3061:4846
7Orlando City SCOrlando City SC3058:7041
8FC CincinnatiFC Cincinnati3062:7139
9New York Red BullsNew York Red Bulls3039:5636
10Toronto FCToronto FC3046:5536
11Columbus CrewColumbus Crew3046:4735
12New York City FCNew York City FC3043:4134
13DC UnitedDC United3038:5333
14Atlanta United FCAtlanta United FC3037:5130
15CF MontrealCF Montreal3036:6025
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About the Toronto FC vs CF Montreal forecast

The forecasts for this Major League Soccer match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Toronto FC and CF Montreal in the Major League Soccer table

In the Major League Soccer table, Toronto FC are 10th and CF Montreal 15th, 11 points apart. League goal record so far: Toronto FC 46-55, CF Montreal 36-60. The full standings are on the Major League Soccer Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.