Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors Prediction

Vasco DA Gama
1-3
Finished
HT 0-2
Boca Juniors
Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro·Jesus Valenzuela 21/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
7.7 / 10
AI Best Pick
67%Trust
Double Chance
Draw or Away Win
1.44
SignalSOLIDModel40%SurpriseMediumGap-2.6%
Vasco DA Gama Rest
3 days
Boca Juniors Rest
4 days

Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors: the result in context

Boca Juniors beat Vasco DA Gama 3-1 in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana on 21 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Referee Jesus Valenzuela averages 4.19 cards a game, 0.66 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
33%2.70
X
32%3.02
2
35%2.82
Double Chance
1X
65%1.40
X2
67%1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%2.09
No
55%1.67
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.17 + 0.92 = 2.09
Over 1.5
65%1.54
Over 2.5
37%2.67
Over 3.5
19%5.22
Under 1.5
35%2.49
Under 2.5
63%1.46
Under 3.5
81%1.14
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.4 + 3.8 = 10.2
Over 8.5
68%1.67
Over 9.5
56%2.08
Over 10.5
44%2.70
Under 8.5
32%2.10
Under 9.5
44%1.65
Under 10.5
56%1.37
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.1 + 2.4 = 4.5
Over 3.5
67%1.27
Over 4.5
48%1.55
Under 3.5
33%3.55
Under 4.5
52%2.35

Match Events

4'Lautaro Di LolloAssist: Lautaro Blanco
34'Miguel MerentielAssist: Sebastián Villa
37'Leandro ParedesDissent
40'Thiago MendesFoul
45'David INBrenner out
45'Adson INMarino Hinestroza out
56'Paulo Henrique INJose Luis Rodriguez out
57'Rodrigo Battaglia INLeandro Paredes out
66'Jose Luis Rodriguez
77'Leonel Flores INAlan Velasco out
77'Miguel Merentiel INEnner Valencia out
88'Leandro ParedesAssist: Milton Delgado
90'Alan Lescano INClaudio Spinelli out
90+2'Sebastián Villa INAyrton Enrique Costa out
90+2'Alan VelascoTime wasting

Lineups

Vasco DA Gama
4-1-4-1Coach: Pedro Emanuel
Boca Juniors
4-2-3-1Coach: R. Arruabarrena
Avg rating6.34
Avg rating6.75
Léo Jardim6.01L. Jardim
Paulo Henrique5.596P. Henrique
A. Saldivia6.44A. Saldivia
Robert Renan6.630R. Renan
Cuiabano6.066Cuiabano
S. Sosa6.35S. Sosa
Adson5.828Adson
A. Lescano7.222A. Lescano
Thiago Mendes6.223T. Mendes
David5.87David
Bruno Duarte6.319B. Duarte
Á. Montero6.11Á. Montero
L. Lozano6.217L. Lozano
L. Di Lollo7.72L. Di Lollo
F. Herrera6.742F. Herrera
L. Blanco6.63L. Blanco
R. Battaglia6.46R. Battaglia
M. Delgado7.518M. Delgado
S. Villa7.022S. Villa
S. Ascacíbar6.325S. Ascacíbar
L. Flores6.519L. Flores
M. Merentiel8.016M. Merentiel

Vasco DA Gama Substitutes

18M. Hinestroza45'for Adson7.0
13Daniel Fuzato
55Gabriel Pereira
6Lucas Piton
17Nuno Moreira
8Jair
2J. Rodríguez56'for Paulo Henrique66'7.3
83Ramon Rique
20Brenner45'for David6.4
77C. Spinelli90'for Alan Lescano
3Tchê Tchê
43Lucas Freitas

Boca Juniors Substitutes

30E. Valencia77'for Miguel Merentiel6.4
53Joaquín Ruíz
11Á. Romero
5L. Paredes37'57'for Rodrigo Battaglia88'7.1
7C. Palacios
24D. Gorosito
4N. Figal
32A. Costa90+2'for Sebastián Villa
12L. Brey
27M. Braida
15W. Alarcón
20A. Velasco77'for Leonel Flores90+2'6.1

Match Stats

Vasco DA GamaBoca Juniors
59%Ball Possession41%
5Corner Kicks5
1Yellow Cards2
12Total Shots7
2Shots on Goal3
9Shots off Goal2
8Shots Inside Box5
4Shots Outside Box2
1Blocked Shots2
8Fouls14
0Offsides2
0Goalkeeper Saves1
560Total Passes340
475Passes Accurate259
14Free Kicks8

Team Comparison

Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama
Boca JuniorsBoca Juniors
1731Elo Rating 1815
0.75Attack 2.02
1.82Defense 1.98
34%Hit Rate 64%
13.2Shots per Game 13.7
3.3Shots on Target 3.8
5.4Corners per Game 4.9
1.6Cards per Game 1.7

AI Insights

📉Home Underperforming
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
Boca JuniorsBoca Juniors
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches

Head to Head

1 previous meeting, all competitions

Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama1Wins · 100%
Draws00%
Boca JuniorsBoca Juniors0Wins · 0%
1.0Avg Goals
0%Both teams scored0 of 1
0%3+ goals0 of 1

Referee Profile

Jesus Valenzuela43 matches

4.19Cards per match
4.02Yellow cards per match
0.17Red cards per match
25.6Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Jesus Valenzuela4.19
Other referees4.85

4.19 cards a match, 0.66 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.85).

Cards come from 42 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

Bracket

Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Deportivo Recoleta
Seeded
Sao Paulo
Seeded
Atletico-MG
Seeded
Atletico Torque
Seeded
Macara
Seeded
Olimpia
Seeded
Botafogo
Seeded
River Plate
Seeded

League Table

CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1OlimpiaOlimpia641110:6+413WWWLD
2Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama631210:6+410WLWWL
3A. ItalianoA. Italiano62137:9-27LWLDW
4Barracas CentralBarracas Central60332:8-63LLLDD
#TeamMPGPts
1OlimpiaOlimpia610:613
2Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama610:610
3A. ItalianoA. Italiano67:97
4Barracas CentralBarracas Central62:83
Promotion

About the Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors forecast

As a knockout tie in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About CONMEBOL Sudamericana

More CONMEBOL Sudamericana fixtures and forecasts are on the CONMEBOL Sudamericana Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

This is a high-importance fixture for both sides, rated 7.7 out of 10 by our context model. Vasco DA Gama and Boca Juniors have met only 1 time recently, with 1.0 goals in that meeting. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.