Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction

Sao Paulo
1-0
Finished
HT 0-0
Vasco DA Gama

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
68%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.30
SignalSOLIDModel44%SurpriseMediumGap-8.6%
Sao Paulo Rest
7 days
Vasco DA Gama Rest
3 days

Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama: result, form and history

Sao Paulo beat Vasco DA Gama 1-0 in the Serie A on 18 Oct 2026. That went against recent form: Vasco DA Gama had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 2 for Sao Paulo.

Games between these two are rarely quiet: their 9 previous meetings averaged 3.1 goals, and both sides scored in 5 of them.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
42%2.15
X
28%3.35
2
30%3.44
Double Chance
1X
70%1.30
X2
58%1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%1.85
No
48%1.85
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.26 + 1.29 = 2.55
Over 1.5
72%1.34
Over 2.5
48%2.15
Over 3.5
27%3.82
Under 1.5
28%3.00
Under 2.5
52%1.70
Under 3.5
73%1.23
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.3 + 4.6 = 9.9
Over 8.5
64%1.28
Over 9.5
53%1.53
Over 10.5
41%1.93
Under 8.5
36%3.00
Under 9.5
47%2.26
Under 10.5
59%1.80
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.4 + 2.5 = 4.9
Over 3.5
72%-
Over 4.5
54%1.80
Under 3.5
28%-
Under 4.5
46%1.91

Match Events

42'Artur Victor GuimarãesDissent
44'Facundo ColidioDissent
45'Luciano INLucas Moura out
45'Rafael Tolói INJose Monteiro out
45'Paulo Henrique INJose Luis Rodriguez out
51'Red card cancelledGabriel Pereira
54'Gabriel PereiraFoul
62'Bruno Duarte Da Silva INBrenner out
68'Artur Victor GuimarãesAssist: Pedro Lima
71'Marcos Antonio INPablo Maia out
74'Tchê Tchê INThiago Mendes out
74'Santiago Sosa INJair out
80'Jonathan Calleri INGustavo Santana out
89'Artur Victor Guimarães INLuis Osorio Messias De Oliveira out
89'Alan Lescano INAdson out
90+2'Iago Amaral BorduchiFoul

Lineups

Sao Paulo
3-4-2-1Coach: Dorival Júnior
Vasco DA Gama
4-2-3-1Coach: Pedro Emanuel
Avg rating7.07
Avg rating6.53
Rafael7.023Rafael
Newton7.728Newton
R. Arboleda7.05R. Arboleda
R. Tolói7.52R. Tolói
Pedro Lima7.732P. Lima
Marcos Antônio7.28M. Antônio
D. Bobadilla7.216D. Bobadilla
Iago6.712Iago
Luciano6.710Luciano
Artur8.237Artur
J. Calleri6.59J. Calleri
Léo Jardim6.51L. Jardim
Paulo Henrique6.496P. Henrique
Gabriel Pereira6.055G. Pereira
Robert Renan6.430R. Renan
Cuiabano7.066Cuiabano
Tchê Tchê6.73T. Tchê
S. Sosa7.05S. Sosa
A. Gómez6.611A. Gómez
A. Lescano6.222A. Lescano
F. Colidio6.19F. Colidio
Bruno Duarte6.319B. Duarte

Sao Paulo Substitutes

18Wendell
27Victor Sá
43G. Santana80'for Jonathan Calleri6.5
35Sabino45'for Rafael Tolói7.1
49Ryan Francisco
46Pedro Ferreira
29Pablo Maia71'for Marcos Antonio6.9
54Osorio Luis89'for Artur Victor Guimarães7.1
45Lucca Marques Alencar
19Lucas Ramon
7Lucas Moura45'for Luciano6.3
31Carlos Coronel

Vasco DA Gama Substitutes

45Loide Augusto
23Thiago Mendes74'for Tchê Tchê6.8
20Brenner62'for Bruno Duarte Da Silva6.2
13Daniel Fuzato
7David
8Jair74'for Santiago Sosa6.9
43Lucas Freitas
6Lucas Piton
83Ramon Rique
2J. Rodríguez45'for Paulo Henrique7.2
4A. Saldivia
28Adson89'for Alan Lescano6.3

Match Stats

Sao PauloVasco DA Gama
40%Ball Possession60%
3Corner Kicks4
2Yellow Cards2
9Total Shots13
2Shots on Goal2
7Shots off Goal7
6Shots Inside Box11
3Shots Outside Box2
0Blocked Shots4
14Fouls15
1Offsides2
2Goalkeeper Saves1
381Total Passes577
296Passes Accurate493
14Free Kicks14

Team Comparison

Sao PauloSao Paulo
Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama
1681Elo Rating 1731
1.03Attack 0.75
2.05Defense 1.82
64%Hit Rate 34%
15.1Shots per Game 13.2
4.0Shots on Target 3.3
6.5Corners per Game 5.4
2.0Cards per Game 1.6

AI Insights

📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Sao PauloSao Paulo
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches

Head to Head

Last 9 meetings, all competitions

Sao PauloSao Paulo5Wins · 56%
Draws111%
Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama3Wins · 33%
3.1Avg Goals
56%Both teams scored5 of 9
67%3+ goals6 of 9

Previous meetings

Serie A18/04/2026
Vasco DA GamaSao Paulo
21
Serie A03/11/2025
Vasco DA GamaSao Paulo
02
Serie A13/06/2025
Sao PauloVasco DA Gama
13
Serie A17/10/2024
Sao PauloVasco DA Gama
30
Serie A23/06/2024
Vasco DA GamaSao Paulo
41
Serie A07/10/2023
Vasco DA GamaSao Paulo
00
Serie A20/05/2023
Sao PauloVasco DA Gama
42
Copa Do Brasil05/08/2021
Vasco DA GamaSao Paulo
12
Copa Do Brasil29/07/2021
Sao PauloVasco DA Gama
20
5.19Cards per match
4.94Yellow cards per match
0.26Red cards per match
27.3Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Fernando Antonio Mendes de Salles Nascimento Filho5.19
Other referees5.08

5.19 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.08).

Cards come from 31 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FlamengoFlamengo31207461:25+3667WWDWW
2PalmeirasPalmeiras31199354:22+3266WWWDW
3Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense31158849:37+1253LWDWD
4CruzeiroCruzeiro311561050:46+451WLWWL
5FluminenseFluminense31149849:39+1051LLWWL
6Atletico-MGAtletico-MG31148942:35+750WWDWD
7BahiaBahia311310844:39+549LWLLW
8SantosSantos311291048:46+245WLDWW
9Sao PauloSao Paulo311261336:35+142WWLLW
10RB BragantinoRB Bragantino311181239:36+341DWDLL
11BotafogoBotafogo311091244:48-439WDLLW
12CoritibaCoritiba311091238:49-1139LDLLD
13VitoriaVitoria311071434:45-1137DLWLD
14MirassolMirassol31991336:44-836WLDWD
15Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama30981336:43-735LDWWW
16CorinthiansCorinthians31891432:39-733DLLLL
17InternacionalInternacional317111333:40-732LDWLW
18GremioGremio317101434:44-1031LDDDL
19RemoRemo315111534:49-1526DDDLL
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc30391830:62-3218LLLDL
#TeamMPGPts
1FlamengoFlamengo3161:2567
2PalmeirasPalmeiras3154:2266
3Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense3149:3753
4CruzeiroCruzeiro3150:4651
5FluminenseFluminense3149:3951
6Atletico-MGAtletico-MG3142:3550
7BahiaBahia3144:3949
8SantosSantos3148:4645
9Sao PauloSao Paulo3136:3542
10RB BragantinoRB Bragantino3139:3641
11BotafogoBotafogo3144:4839
12CoritibaCoritiba3138:4939
13VitoriaVitoria3134:4537
14MirassolMirassol3136:4436
15Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama3036:4335
16CorinthiansCorinthians3132:3933
17InternacionalInternacional3133:4032
18GremioGremio3134:4431
19RemoRemo3134:4926
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc3030:6218
PromotionRelegation

About the Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Sao Paulo and Vasco DA Gama in the Serie A table

In the Serie A table, Sao Paulo are 9th and Vasco DA Gama 15th, 7 points apart. League goal record so far: Sao Paulo 36-35, Vasco DA Gama 36-43. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.