Vasco DA Gama vs Santa Fe Prediction

Vasco DA Gama
2-0
Finished
HT 1-0
Santa Fe
A. Herrera 16/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
7.0 / 10
Value Analysis
58%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 2.5 Goals
1.86
SignalSOLIDModel58%SurpriseMediumGap+6.9%
Vasco DA Gama Rest
3 days
Santa Fe Rest
3 days

Vasco DA Gama vs Santa Fe: result, form and history

Vasco DA Gama beat Santa Fe 2-0 in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana on 15 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
63%1.37
X
25%4.75
2
12%9.00
Double Chance
1X
88%1.06
X2
36%3.02
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%2.25
No
55%1.59
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.7 + 0.9 = 2.60
Over 1.5
72%1.28
Over 2.5
41%1.95
Over 3.5
22%3.40
Under 1.5
28%3.45
Under 2.5
59%1.86
Under 3.5
78%1.30
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.9 + 3.5 = 9.4
Over 8.5
56%1.63
Over 9.5
44%2.07
Over 10.5
33%2.63
Under 8.5
44%2.14
Under 9.5
56%1.69
Under 10.5
67%1.40
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.1 + 2.7 = 4.9
Over 3.5
72%1.38
Over 4.5
54%1.80
Under 3.5
28%2.87
Under 4.5
46%1.91

Match Events

6'Emanuel OliveraFoul
37'Bruno Duarte Da SilvaAssist: Alan Saldivia
40'Emerson Rodriguez INMaximiliano Lovera out
62'Jader Obrian INNahuel Bustos out
62'Daniel Torres INKilian Toscano out
62'Bruno Duarte Da Silva INDavid out
63'Adson INNuno Moreira out
63'Marino Hinestroza INAndrés Gómez out
63'Ramon Rique Santos De Souza Barros INThiago Mendes out
65'DavidAssist: Jose Luis Rodriguez
82'Jhojan Torres INAlexis Zapata out
83'Santiago Sosa INLucas Freitas out

Lineups

Vasco DA Gama
4-2-3-1Coach: Pedro Emanuel
Santa Fe
4-2-3-1Coach: P. Repetto
Avg rating6.89
Avg rating6.13
Léo Jardim7.41L. Jardim
J. Rodríguez7.92J. Rodríguez
A. Saldivia7.14A. Saldivia
Robert Renan7.430R. Renan
Lucas Piton7.06L. Piton
S. Sosa6.55S. Sosa
Ramon Rique6.283R. Rique
Adson6.928Adson
Tchê Tchê6.43T. Tchê
M. Hinestroza6.218M. Hinestroza
Bruno Duarte7.719B. Duarte
A. Mosquera5.71A. Mosquera
H. Palacios6.113H. Palacios
E. Olivera6.318E. Olivera
V. Moreno6.33V. Moreno
C. Mafla6.732C. Mafla
J. Torres6.27J. Torres
D. Torres5.416D. Torres
J. Obrian6.077J. Obrian
F. Fagúndez6.19F. Fagúndez
E. Rodríguez5.925E. Rodríguez
H. Rodallega6.511H. Rodallega

Vasco DA Gama Substitutes

13Daniel Fuzato
11A. Gómez63'for Marino Hinestroza6.6
23Thiago Mendes63'for Ramon Rique Santos De Souza Barros6.8
17Nuno Moreira63'for Adson6.4
8Jair
10J. Rojas
66Cuiabano
77C. Spinelli
43Lucas Freitas83'for Santiago Sosa6.5
96Paulo Henrique
7David62'for Bruno Duarte Da Silva65'7.3

Santa Fe Substitutes

14L. Palacios
21E. Murillo
4M. Puerta
15I. Scarpeta
6K. Toscano62'for Daniel Torres6.6
10A. Zapata82'for Jhojan Torres6.0
17M. Lovera40'for Emerson Rodriguez5.7
31J. Espitia
19N. Bustos62'for Jader Obrian6.5
12W. Asprilla
24Jeison Angulo
39Cristhian Portocarrero

Match Stats

Vasco DA GamaSanta Fe
52%Ball Possession48%
3Corner Kicks5
0Yellow Cards1
11Total Shots8
4Shots on Goal3
3Shots off Goal3
6Shots Inside Box4
5Shots Outside Box4
4Blocked Shots2
10Fouls7
4Offsides0
3Goalkeeper Saves2
451Total Passes425
368Passes Accurate317
7Free Kicks9

Team Comparison

Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama
Santa FeSanta Fe
1742Elo Rating 1617
1.64Attack 0.61
0.97Defense 1.58
44%Hit Rate 31%
12.0Shots per Game 13.7
3.0Shots on Target 4.7
3.1Corners per Game 4.6
1.3Cards per Game 2.7

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+124 Elo
📊Home Overperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.3 vs 0.4 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Santa FeSanta Fe
  • No tendency data available

Head to Head

1 previous meeting, all competitions

Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama0Wins · 0%
Draws1100%
Santa FeSanta Fe0Wins · 0%
0.0Avg Goals
0%Both teams scored0 of 1
0%3+ goals0 of 1

Referee Profile

A. Herrera191 matches

5.03Cards per match
4.72Yellow cards per match
0.32Red cards per match
26.3Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

A. Herrera5.03
Other referees5.16

5.03 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.16).

Cards come from 95 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

Bracket

Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Deportivo Recoleta
Seeded
Sao Paulo
Seeded
Atletico-MG
Seeded
Atletico Torque
Seeded
Macara
Seeded
Olimpia
Seeded
Botafogo
Seeded
River Plate
Seeded

League Table

CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1OlimpiaOlimpia641110:6+413WWWLD
2Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama631210:6+410WLWWL
3A. ItalianoA. Italiano62137:9-27LWLDW
4Barracas CentralBarracas Central60332:8-63LLLDD
#TeamMPGPts
1OlimpiaOlimpia610:613
2Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama610:610
3A. ItalianoA. Italiano67:97
4Barracas CentralBarracas Central62:83
Promotion

About the Vasco DA Gama vs Santa Fe forecast

As a knockout tie in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About CONMEBOL Sudamericana

More CONMEBOL Sudamericana fixtures and forecasts are on the CONMEBOL Sudamericana Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

This is a high-importance fixture for both sides, rated 7.0 out of 10 by our context model. Vasco DA Gama and Santa Fe have met only 1 time recently, with 0.0 goals in that meeting. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.