Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction

Gremio
1-2
Finished
HT 1-0
Vasco DA Gama
12/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
Value Analysis
64%Trust
Corners Total
Corners Under 10.5
1.69
SignalSOLIDModel64%SurpriseMediumGap+7.3%
Gremio Rest
4 days
Vasco DA Gama Rest
3 days

Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama: the result in context

Vasco DA Gama beat Gremio 2-1 in the Serie A on 12 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their history points to a close game: 9 previous meetings produced 1.8 goals a game. Gremio tend to win more corners, 5.9 a game to 3.1 for Vasco DA Gama.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
36%2.75
X
29%3.20
2
35%2.60
Double Chance
1X
66%1.46
X2
64%1.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%1.78
No
46%1.93
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.24 + 0.96 = 2.20
Over 1.5
71%1.33
Over 2.5
45%2.08
Over 3.5
25%3.75
Under 1.5
29%3.15
Under 2.5
55%1.75
Under 3.5
75%1.25
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.7 + 4.9 = 9.6
Over 8.5
59%1.35
Over 9.5
46%1.62
Over 10.5
36%2.00
Under 8.5
41%2.85
Under 9.5
54%2.10
Under 10.5
64%1.69
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.2 + 2.8 = 4.9
Over 3.5
72%1.34
Over 4.5
54%1.73
Under 3.5
28%3.06
Under 4.5
46%2.00

Match Events

7'Pedro GabrielFoul
26'Tchê TchêFoul
32'Wallace Gomes da Silva SantosFoul
39'Mathias Villasanti
45+2'CuiabanoFoul
53'Robert RenanFoul
55'Adson INBruno Duarte Da Silva out
55'Paulo Henrique INJose Luis Rodriguez out
58'Diego Caito Barcellos Oliveira dos SantosDissent
61'Jovane Cabral INJuan Nardoni out
71'Tetê INJosé Enamorado out
73'Tchê Tchê INAlan Lescano out
73'Carlos Cuesta INJair out
76'Thiago Mendes
78'Cuiabano INLucas Piton out
80'Facundo ColidioAssist: Bruno Duarte Da Silva
86'Walter Kannemann INMatheus Nascimento out

Lineups

Gremio
4-1-4-1Coach: Luís Castro
Vasco DA Gama
4-1-4-1Coach: Pedro Emanuel
Avg rating6.60
Avg rating6.68
Weverton6.41Weverton
Diego Caito6.527D. Caito
Wallace6.682Wallace
W. Kannemann7.04W. Kannemann
Pedro Gabriel6.354P. Gabriel
E. Noriega6.48E. Noriega
Tetê6.311Tetê
M. Villasanti7.920M. Villasanti
F. Krovinović6.810F. Krovinović
Jovane Cabral6.777J. Cabral
Carlos Vinícius6.195C. Vinícius
Léo Jardim7.51L. Jardim
Paulo Henrique6.196P. Henrique
C. Cuesta6.746C. Cuesta
Robert Renan6.330R. Renan
Cuiabano6.366Cuiabano
S. Sosa6.75S. Sosa
Adson6.028Adson
Tchê Tchê6.33T. Tchê
Thiago Mendes8.223T. Mendes
A. Gómez6.611A. Gómez
F. Colidio7.99F. Colidio

Gremio Substitutes

30Matheus Nascimento86'for Walter Kannemann6.6
5J. Nardoni61'for Jovane Cabral6.3
14Marcos Rocha
50Bernardo Zortea
22M. Braithwaite
3Wagner Leonardo
15Danilo Barbosa
99J. Enamorado71'for Tetê6.5
65Riquelme Freitas
12Gabriel Grando
6Gustavo Martins
18João Pedro

Vasco DA Gama Substitutes

8Jair73'for Carlos Cuesta6.4
17Nuno Moreira
6Lucas Piton78'for Cuiabano6.2
22A. Lescano73'for Tchê Tchê6.4
18M. Hinestroza
19Bruno Duarte55'for Adson6.8
7David
13Daniel Fuzato
88Cauan Barros
2J. Rodríguez55'for Paulo Henrique6.5
83Ramon Rique
43Lucas Freitas

Match Stats

GremioVasco DA Gama
51%Ball Possession49%
3Corner Kicks5
3Yellow Cards3
13Total Shots17
5Shots on Goal5
5Shots off Goal5
6Shots Inside Box12
7Shots Outside Box5
3Blocked Shots7
10Fouls14
0Offsides1
3Goalkeeper Saves4
482Total Passes463
394Passes Accurate387
82%Pass Accuracy84%

Team Comparison

GremioGremio
Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama
1668Elo Rating 1742
1.56Attack 1.64
1.63Defense 0.97
59%Hit Rate 44%
12.3Shots per Game 12.0
4.3Shots on Target 3.0
5.9Corners per Game 3.1
2.0Cards per Game 1.3

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend44% in H2H
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

GremioGremio
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0.7 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.3 vs 0.4 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 9 meetings, all competitions

GremioGremio4Wins · 45%
Draws222%
Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama3Wins · 33%
1.8Avg Goals
44%Both teams scored4 of 9
33%3+ goals3 of 9

Previous meetings

Serie A22/03/2026
Vasco DA GamaGremio
21
Serie A20/11/2025
GremioVasco DA Gama
20
Serie A19/07/2025
Vasco DA GamaGremio
11
Serie A29/07/2024
GremioVasco DA Gama
10
Serie A14/04/2024
Vasco DA GamaGremio
21
Serie A03/12/2023
GremioVasco DA Gama
10
Serie A06/08/2023
Vasco DA GamaGremio
10
Serie B11/09/2022
GremioVasco DA Gama
21
Serie B03/06/2022
Vasco DA GamaGremio
00

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FlamengoFlamengo34237471:29+4276WWWWW
2PalmeirasPalmeiras342110362:23+3973WDWWW
3CruzeiroCruzeiro341861055:48+760WWWWL
4FluminenseFluminense34169955:42+1357WWLLL
5Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense341591051:43+854LLDLW
6BahiaBahia341411950:45+553LWDLW
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG341481244:40+450LLLWW
8RB BragantinoRB Bragantino341381344:39+547WWLDW
9SantosSantos3412111150:49+147LDDWL
10Sao PauloSao Paulo341281439:39044DLDWW
11BotafogoBotafogo341191446:53-742WLLWD
12CoritibaCoritiba341191440:51-1142LWLLD
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama331181443:50-741WLWLD
14MirassolMirassol3410101439:48-940WLDWL
15VitoriaVitoria341081635:51-1638LLDDL
16InternacionalInternacional349111438:42-438WLWLD
17CorinthiansCorinthians349101536:42-637DWLDL
18GremioGremio349101538:47-937LWWLD
19RemoRemo346111737:57-2029LWLDD
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc33492033:68-3521LLWLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FlamengoFlamengo3471:2976
2PalmeirasPalmeiras3462:2373
3CruzeiroCruzeiro3455:4860
4FluminenseFluminense3455:4257
5Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense3451:4354
6BahiaBahia3450:4553
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG3444:4050
8RB BragantinoRB Bragantino3444:3947
9SantosSantos3450:4947
10Sao PauloSao Paulo3439:3944
11BotafogoBotafogo3446:5342
12CoritibaCoritiba3440:5142
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama3343:5041
14MirassolMirassol3439:4840
15VitoriaVitoria3435:5138
16InternacionalInternacional3438:4238
17CorinthiansCorinthians3436:4237
18GremioGremio3438:4737
19RemoRemo3437:5729
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc3333:6821
PromotionRelegation

About the Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama forecast

The forecasts for this Serie A match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Gremio and Vasco DA Gama in the Serie A table

In the Serie A table, Vasco DA Gama are 13th and Gremio 18th, 4 points apart. League goal record so far: Gremio 38-47, Vasco DA Gama 43-50. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Gremio have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.