Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba Prediction

Vasco DA Gama
5-0
Finished
HT 2-0
Coritiba
São Januário, Rio de Janeiro·Braulio da Silva Machado 20/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
60%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.44
SignalNEUTRALModel64%SurpriseMediumGap-9.7%
Value Analysis
56%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.81
SignalNEUTRALModel56%SurpriseMediumGap+4.1%
Vasco DA Gama Rest
4 days
Coritiba Rest
7 days

Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba: the result in context

Vasco DA Gama beat Coritiba 5-0 in the Serie A on 20 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

When these two meet, goals usually follow: 3.0 a game across 5 meetings, with both teams scoring in 5. Referee Braulio da Silva Machado averages 6.06 cards a game, 0.92 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
62%1.44
X
23%4.33
2
15%7.42
Double Chance
1X
85%1.09
X2
38%2.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%1.94
No
49%1.80
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.66 + 0.9 = 2.56
Over 1.5
76%1.25
Over 2.5
54%1.81
Over 3.5
32%3.00
Under 1.5
24%3.80
Under 2.5
46%2.00
Under 3.5
68%1.36
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.1 + 4.1 = 10.2
Over 8.5
67%1.38
Over 9.5
55%1.68
Over 10.5
39%2.11
Under 8.5
33%2.69
Under 9.5
45%2.08
Under 10.5
61%1.67
Cards
Projected Cards: 2 + 2.5 = 4.5
Over 3.5
65%1.64
Over 4.5
46%2.03
Under 3.5
35%2.17
Under 4.5
54%1.73

Match Events

24'Facundo Colidio
44'Bruno Duarte Da SilvaAssist: Andrés Gómez
45'Fabinho INPaulo Roberto out
45'Vitor Gonçalves Tissi INFabricio Bustos out
45'Thiago Santos INNicolas Fonseca out
56'Alan Lescano(Penalty)
61'Paulo RobertoFoul
63'Andrés GómezAssist: Alan Saldivia
64'Andrés Gómez
65'Pedro Rocha INRodrigo Silva Nascimento out
71'Andrés Gómez INMarino Hinestroza out
71'Alan Lescano INRamon Rique Santos De Souza Barros out
73'Ramon Rique Santos De Souza Barros
75'Nicolas FonsecaFoul
76'Santiago Sosa INJohan Rojas out
77'Thiago Mendes INJair out
77'Facundo Colidio INDavid out
77'Joaquin Lavega INVini Paulista out

Lineups

Vasco DA Gama
4-3-3Coach: Pedro Emanuel
Coritiba
4-2-3-1Coach: Fernando Seabra
Avg rating7.26
Avg rating5.83
Léo Jardim7.01L. Jardim
Paulo Henrique6.596P. Henrique
A. Saldivia7.14A. Saldivia
Robert Renan6.730R. Renan
Cuiabano7.866Cuiabano
A. Lescano7.822A. Lescano
S. Sosa6.95S. Sosa
Thiago Mendes6.6188T. Mendes
A. Gómez8.511A. Gómez
Bruno Duarte7.719B. Duarte
F. Colidio8.29F. Colidio
Pedro Luccas6.71P. Luccas
Tissi5.150Tissi
Tiago Cóser6.123T. Cóser
Rodrigo Moledo6.04R. Moledo
Bruno Melo5.426B. Melo
Thiago Santos5.621T. Santos
S. Gómez5.719S. Gómez
Fabinho5.828Fabinho
Josué5.910Josué
J. Lavega5.97J. Lavega
Pedro Rocha6.332P. Rocha

Vasco DA Gama Substitutes

28Adson
13Daniel Fuzato
7David77'for Facundo Colidio6.8
55Gabriel Pereira
18M. Hinestroza71'for Andrés Gómez7.0
8Jair77'for Thiago Mendes7.2
43Lucas Freitas
6Lucas Piton
83Ramon Rique71'for Alan Lescano73'7.6
2J. Rodríguez
10J. Rojas76'for Santiago Sosa6.8
77C. Spinelli

Coritiba Substitutes

14F. Bustos45'for Vitor Gonçalves Tissi5.6
36Vini Paulista77'for Joaquin Lavega6.4
5N. Fonseca45'for Thiago Santos75'5.8
37L. Crepaldi
3Maicon
18Paulo Roberto45'for Fabinho61'5.5
22Pedro Rangel
78Renato Marques
66Rodrigo Gelado65'for Pedro Rocha5.3
99Rodrigo Rodrigues
33D. Alves
27Gabriel Ibson Evangelista Da Silva

Match Stats

Vasco DA GamaCoritiba
65%Ball Possession35%
12Corner Kicks2
1Yellow Cards2
32Total Shots4
11Shots on Goal1
11Shots off Goal1
21Shots Inside Box3
11Shots Outside Box1
10Blocked Shots2
7Fouls8
0Offsides1
1Goalkeeper Saves6
603Total Passes331
525Passes Accurate250
7Free Kicks7

Team Comparison

Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama
CoritibaCoritiba
1742Elo Rating 1599
1.64Attack 0.60
0.97Defense 2.23
44%Hit Rate 23%
12.0Shots per Game 12.5
3.0Shots on Target 3.6
3.1Corners per Game 5.1
1.3Cards per Game 2.4

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+142 Elo
📈BTTS Trend100% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.3 vs 0.4 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
CoritibaCoritiba
  • Tied at half-time in 100% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.5 vs 0.1 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 5 meetings, all competitions

Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama2Wins · 40%
Draws360%
CoritibaCoritiba0Wins · 0%
3.0Avg Goals
100%Both teams scored5 of 5
40%3+ goals2 of 5

Previous meetings

Serie A02/04/2026
CoritibaVasco DA Gama
11
Serie A22/09/2023
Vasco DA GamaCoritiba
51
Serie A12/05/2023
CoritibaVasco DA Gama
11
Serie B16/10/2021
Vasco DA GamaCoritiba
21
Serie B14/07/2021
CoritibaVasco DA Gama
11

Referee Profile

Braulio da Silva Machado211 matches

6.06Cards per match
5.77Yellow cards per match
0.29Red cards per match
27.3Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Braulio da Silva Machado6.06
Other referees5.14

6.06 cards a match, 0.92 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.14).

Cards come from 161 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FlamengoFlamengo34237471:29+4276WWWWW
2PalmeirasPalmeiras342110362:23+3973WDWWW
3CruzeiroCruzeiro341861055:48+760WWWWL
4FluminenseFluminense34169955:42+1357WWLLL
5Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense341591051:43+854LLDLW
6BahiaBahia341411950:45+553LWDLW
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG341481244:40+450LLLWW
8RB BragantinoRB Bragantino341381344:39+547WWLDW
9SantosSantos3412111150:49+147LDDWL
10Sao PauloSao Paulo341281439:39044DLDWW
11BotafogoBotafogo341191446:53-742WLLWD
12CoritibaCoritiba341191440:51-1142LWLLD
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama331181443:50-741WLWLD
14MirassolMirassol3410101439:48-940WLDWL
15VitoriaVitoria341081635:51-1638LLDDL
16InternacionalInternacional349111438:42-438WLWLD
17CorinthiansCorinthians349101536:42-637DWLDL
18GremioGremio349101538:47-937LWWLD
19RemoRemo346111737:57-2029LWLDD
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc33492033:68-3521LLWLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FlamengoFlamengo3471:2976
2PalmeirasPalmeiras3462:2373
3CruzeiroCruzeiro3455:4860
4FluminenseFluminense3455:4257
5Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense3451:4354
6BahiaBahia3450:4553
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG3444:4050
8RB BragantinoRB Bragantino3444:3947
9SantosSantos3450:4947
10Sao PauloSao Paulo3439:3944
11BotafogoBotafogo3446:5342
12CoritibaCoritiba3440:5142
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama3343:5041
14MirassolMirassol3439:4840
15VitoriaVitoria3435:5138
16InternacionalInternacional3438:4238
17CorinthiansCorinthians3436:4237
18GremioGremio3438:4737
19RemoRemo3437:5729
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc3333:6821
PromotionRelegation

About the Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba forecast

The forecasts for this Serie A match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Vasco DA Gama and Coritiba in the Serie A table

Coritiba and Vasco DA Gama are close in the Serie A table, 12th and 13th, with 1 point between them. League goal record so far: Vasco DA Gama 43-50, Coritiba 40-51. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.