Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia M. Prediction

Jose Amalfitani, Buenos Aires·Dario Herrera 18/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
80%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.18
SignalHIGHModel51%SurpriseMediumGap-5.0%
Velez Sarsfield Rest
5 days
Gimnasia M. Rest
5 days

Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia M.: the result in context

Velez Sarsfield beat Gimnasia M. 1-0 in the Liga Profesional Argentina on 18 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Referee Dario Herrera averages 5.86 cards a game, 0.72 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
55%1.77
X
27%3.50
2
18%4.70
Double Chance
1X
82%1.18
X2
45%2.00
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%1.94
No
52%1.77
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.42 + 0.8 = 2.22
Over 1.5
68%1.33
Over 2.5
43%2.11
Over 3.5
22%3.77
Under 1.5
32%2.98
Under 2.5
57%1.70
Under 3.5
78%1.24
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.3 + 4.1 = 9.4
Over 8.5
58%1.66
Over 9.5
46%2.06
Over 10.5
34%2.65
Under 8.5
42%2.16
Under 9.5
54%1.69
Under 10.5
66%1.39
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.2 + 2.6 = 4.7
Over 3.5
69%-
Over 4.5
51%-
Under 3.5
31%-
Under 4.5
49%-

Match Events

10'Goal cancelledFacundo Lencioni
32'Simón EscobarFoul
45'Esteban Fernández INNahuel Barboza out
58'Fermin AntoniniFoul
60'Manuel LanziniDissent
70'Luciano César Cingolani INBlas Armoa Nunez out
70'Matías Vargas INSantiago Rodríguez out
79'Juan Cruz Policella INThiago Aguirre out
79'Simón Escobar INDiego Valdés out
82'Luciano ParedesFoul
82'Fermin Antonini INMartín Úbeda out
85'Thiago SilveroAssist: Lucas Robertone
87'Manuel Lanzini INClaudio Baeza out
88'Diego Mondino INI. Charparin out
90'Thiago AguirreFoul
90+3'Joaquin GarciaNot retreating
90+4'Ronaldo Martinez INDilan Godoy out
90+4'Lucas Robertone INLuca Feler out

Lineups

Velez Sarsfield
4-2-3-1Coach: Guillermo Barros Schelotto
Gimnasia M.
4-2-3-1Coach: D. Franco
Avg rating6.99
Avg rating6.46
T. Marchiori7.11T. Marchiori
J. García6.44J. García
Thiago Silveor8.132T. Silveor
L. Magallán7.916L. Magallán
Elías Gómez7.13E. Gómez
R. Aliendro7.229R. Aliendro
L. Robertone7.78L. Robertone
J. Policella6.337J. Policella
M. Lanzini7.222M. Lanzini
S. Escobar6.018S. Escobar
R. Martínez6.777R. Martínez
C. Rigamonti8.023C. Rigamonti
L. Paredes6.232L. Paredes
D. Mondino6.22D. Mondino
E. Muñoz5.94E. Muñoz
M. Recalde6.93M. Recalde
F. Antonini5.821F. Antonini
E. Fernández6.630E. Fernández
L. Cingolani6.77L. Cingolani
M. Vargas6.08M. Vargas
F. Lencioni6.926F. Lencioni
A. Módica6.19A. Módica

Velez Sarsfield Substitutes

39T. Aguirre79'for Juan Cruz Policella90'6.4
5C. Baeza87'for Manuel Lanzini6.8
19L. Cristaldo
48Luca Feler90+4'for Lucas Robertone
15D. Godoy90+4'for Ronaldo Martinez
21Jano Gordon
46Ulises Piedrabuena
30L. Piola
23F. Sanguinetti
10D. Valdés79'for Simón Escobar7.0
17A. Verón
35M. Arias

Gimnasia M. Substitutes

42L. Carrera
19J. Ceballos
5N. Barboza45'for Esteban Fernández6.4
31L. Petruchi
11S. Rodríguez70'for Matías Vargas6.3
17I. Sabatini88'for Diego Mondino6.3
35V. Simoni
15U. Sánchez
25M. Ubeda82'for Fermin Antonini6.6
27B. Armoa70'for Luciano César Cingolani6.4
33B. Andrada
22J. Franco

Match Stats

Velez SarsfieldGimnasia M.
62%Ball Possession38%
12Corner Kicks2
4Yellow Cards3
20Total Shots11
6Shots on Goal2
7Shots off Goal5
14Shots Inside Box5
6Shots Outside Box6
7Blocked Shots4
9Fouls11
4Offsides0
2Goalkeeper Saves5
495Total Passes320
402Passes Accurate219
10Free Kicks9

Team Comparison

Velez SarsfieldVelez Sarsfield
Gimnasia M.Gimnasia M.
1720Elo Rating 1637
1.30Attack 0.23
1.68Defense 1.86
44%Hit Rate 23%
14.4Shots per Game 11.9
4.9Shots on Target 2.0
6.0Corners per Game 3.2
1.9Cards per Game 2.9

AI Insights

📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Velez SarsfieldVelez Sarsfield
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0.5 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Gimnasia M.Gimnasia M.
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

1 previous meeting, all competitions

Velez SarsfieldVelez Sarsfield0Wins · 0%
Draws00%
Gimnasia M.Gimnasia M.1Wins · 100%
5.0Avg Goals
100%Both teams scored1 of 1
100%3+ goals1 of 1

Previous meetings

Liga Profesional Argentina03/04/2026
Gimnasia M.Velez Sarsfield
32

Referee Profile

Dario Herrera260 matches

5.86Cards per match
5.49Yellow cards per match
0.37Red cards per match
26.2Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Dario Herrera5.86
Other referees5.14

5.86 cards a match, 0.72 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.14).

Cards come from 243 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Apertura - Group A

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Estudiantes L.P.Estudiantes L.P.1694319:7+1231WLWWL
2Boca JuniorsBoca Juniors1686222:9+1330DWWDD
3Velez SarsfieldVelez Sarsfield1677218:12+628WLLWD
4Talleres CordobaTalleres Cordoba1675417:13+426WLWDW
5IndependienteIndependiente1666424:20+424DWLLD
6LanusLanus1666418:15+324WDLWW
7San LorenzoSan Lorenzo1657414:14022DWDLD
8Union Santa FeUnion Santa Fe1656524:20+421LWLDD
9Instituto CordobaInstituto Cordoba1663717:17021WWLWL
10Defensa Y JusticiaDefensa Y Justicia1647518:21-319LLWWD
11Gimnasia M.Gimnasia M.1654714:22-819DWLLD
12PlatensePlatense1637610:15-516DDLLD
13Central Cordoba de SantiagoCentral Cordoba de Santiago1644811:21-1016LLLWD
14Newells Old BoysNewells Old Boys1636715:27-1215DWWLD
15Deportivo RiestraDeportivo Riestra161875:12-711LLDLD
#TeamMPGPts
1Estudiantes L.P.Estudiantes L.P.1619:731
2Boca JuniorsBoca Juniors1622:930
3Velez SarsfieldVelez Sarsfield1618:1228
4Talleres CordobaTalleres Cordoba1617:1326
5IndependienteIndependiente1624:2024
6LanusLanus1618:1524
7San LorenzoSan Lorenzo1614:1422
8Union Santa FeUnion Santa Fe1624:2021
9Instituto CordobaInstituto Cordoba1617:1721
10Defensa Y JusticiaDefensa Y Justicia1618:2119
11Gimnasia M.Gimnasia M.1614:2219
12PlatensePlatense1610:1516
13Central Cordoba de SantiagoCentral Cordoba de Santiago1611:2116
14Newells Old BoysNewells Old Boys1615:2715
15Deportivo RiestraDeportivo Riestra165:1211

Clausura - Group A

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Instituto CordobaInstituto Cordoba1392220:10+1029WWLWL
2Boca JuniorsBoca Juniors1366121:14+724DWWDD
3Defensa Y JusticiaDefensa Y Justicia1373318:12+624LLWWD
4Velez SarsfieldVelez Sarsfield1366118:13+524WLLWD
5LanusLanus1372416:9+723WDLWW
6Newells Old BoysNewells Old Boys1355313:10+320DWWLD
7Gimnasia M.Gimnasia M.1362515:13+220DWLLD
8IndependienteIndependiente1354412:13-119DWLLD
9San LorenzoSan Lorenzo135267:12-517DWDLD
10Estudiantes L.P.Estudiantes L.P.1342716:15+114WLWWL
11Union Santa FeUnion Santa Fe1342718:22-414LWLDD
12Deportivo RiestraDeportivo Riestra1326510:13-312LLDLD
13PlatensePlatense1325612:19-711DDLLD
14Central Cordoba de SantiagoCentral Cordoba de Santiago1324711:18-710LLLWD
15Talleres CordobaTalleres Cordoba1323812:20-89WLWDW
#TeamMPGPts
1Instituto CordobaInstituto Cordoba1320:1029
2Boca JuniorsBoca Juniors1321:1424
3Defensa Y JusticiaDefensa Y Justicia1318:1224
4Velez SarsfieldVelez Sarsfield1318:1324
5LanusLanus1316:923
6Newells Old BoysNewells Old Boys1313:1020
7Gimnasia M.Gimnasia M.1315:1320
8IndependienteIndependiente1312:1319
9San LorenzoSan Lorenzo137:1217
10Estudiantes L.P.Estudiantes L.P.1316:1514
11Union Santa FeUnion Santa Fe1318:2214
12Deportivo RiestraDeportivo Riestra1310:1312
13PlatensePlatense1312:1911
14Central Cordoba de SantiagoCentral Cordoba de Santiago1311:1810
15Talleres CordobaTalleres Cordoba1312:209

About the Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia M. forecast

The forecasts for this Liga Profesional Argentina match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Velez Sarsfield and Gimnasia M. in the Liga Profesional Argentina table

In the Liga Profesional Argentina table, Velez Sarsfield are 3rd and Gimnasia M. 11th, 9 points apart. League goal record so far: Velez Sarsfield 18-12, Gimnasia M. 14-22. The full standings are on the Liga Profesional Argentina Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Velez Sarsfield and Gimnasia M. have met only 1 time recently, with 5.0 goals in that meeting. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.