Wanderers vs Progreso Prediction

Primera DivisiónUruguay Uruguay · Clausura - 12
Wanderers
0-1
Finished
HT 0-0
Progreso
Estadio Alfredo Victor Viera, Montevideo·Mathias De Armas 25/10/2026
WanderersWanderers
0-1
Finished
ProgresoProgreso

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
73%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.27
SignalGOODModel44%SurpriseMediumGap-5.0%
Wanderers Rest
7 days
Progreso Rest
8 days

Wanderers vs Progreso: result, form and history

Progreso beat Wanderers 1-0 in the Primera División on 25 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Wanderers have had the better of this fixture, winning 4 of the 6 previous meetings, which averaged 2.8 goals a game. Referee Mathias De Armas averages 4.73 cards a game, 1.23 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
43%2.10
X
29%3.24
2
28%3.25
Double Chance
1X
72%1.27
X2
56%1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%1.73
No
46%1.98
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.51 + 1.05 = 2.56
Over 1.5
72%1.29
Over 2.5
48%1.95
Over 3.5
28%3.40
Under 1.5
28%3.30
Under 2.5
52%1.79
Under 3.5
72%1.25
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

6'Santino Bruschi INLorenzo Couture out
25'Fabricio Formiliano INMario Garcia out
40'Mario Garcia
46'darlin mencia INLeandro Zazpe out
46'Facundo Labandeira INRenzo·Sanchez Veiga out
46'Gianfranco trasante INFacundo De Leon out
46'Maximiliano Juambeltz INMatteo copelotti out
48'Joaquin Nicolas·Cabral
59'nahuel lopez
65'Renzo Bacchia
69'Emiliano Alvarez
69'Mario Garcia INJonathan Urretaviscaya out
79'José Alberti INjonas luna out
81'
90+1'nahuel lopez INAgustin Codagnone out

Lineups

Wanderers
4-3-3Coach: M. Corujo
Progreso
4-2-3-1Coach: Tabaré Silva
A. Buffa33A. Buffa
N. Furtado31N. Furtado
F. Formiliano13F. Formiliano
N. Cabral2N. Cabral
D. Mencia15D. Mencia
J. Alberti16J. Alberti
S. Benitez21S. Benitez
N. Queiroz5N. Queiroz
F. Labandeira30F. Labandeira
J. Zeballos24J. Zeballos
L. Cosentino10L. Cosentino
R. Bacchia1R. Bacchia
E. Álvarez24E. Álvarez
M. Martin15M. Martin
H. Carroso13H. Carroso
A. Cougo40A. Cougo
A. Pinheiro5A. Pinheiro
S. Bruschi21S. Bruschi
G. Trasante16G. Trasante
N. López10N. López
A. Ocampo7A. Ocampo
M. Juambeltz8M. Juambeltz

Wanderers Substitutes

Progreso Substitutes

14L. Viana
93gary silva
27G. Silva
22Juan Oliva
12L. Fernández
4L. Couture6'for Santino Bruschi
23M. Copelotti46'for Maximiliano Juambeltz
30Agustin Codagnone90+1'for nahuel lopez
2S. Cardozo
17F. de León46'for Gianfranco trasante

Match Stats

WanderersProgreso
56%Ball Possession44%
5Corner Kicks4
3Yellow Cards2
7Total Shots6
2Shots on Goal3
5Shots off Goal3
0Blocked Shots0
0Free Kicks0

Team Comparison

WanderersWanderers
ProgresoProgreso
1495Elo Rating 1468
1.23Attack 1.77
0.97Defense 1.88
31%Hit Rate 58%
4.9Shots per Game 8.7
2.5Shots on Target 4.4
5.9Corners per Game 3.3
2.8Cards per Game 2.3

AI Insights

📊Home Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

WanderersWanderers
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.8 vs 0.4 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
ProgresoProgreso
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.2 vs 0.5 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 6 meetings, all competitions

WanderersWanderers4Wins · 66%
Draws117%
ProgresoProgreso1Wins · 17%
2.8Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored3 of 6
33%3+ goals2 of 6

Previous meetings

Primera División - Apertura11/07/2026
WanderersProgreso
20
Primera División - Apertura18/04/2026
ProgresoWanderers
21
Primera División - Apertura27/03/2025
WanderersProgreso
11
Primera División - Apertura14/07/2024
WanderersProgreso
42
Primera División - Apertura04/05/2024
WanderersProgreso
20
Primera División - Apertura31/07/2021
WanderersProgreso
20

Recent Form

WanderersWanderers
3W2D5L
17/10/2026
Racing MontevideoWanderers
30
L10/10/2026
WanderersBoston River
13
L
07/10/2026
CerritoWanderers
3242
W
04/10/2026
CerroWanderers
02
W
29/09/2026
WanderersAlbion FC
21
W
24/09/2026
WanderersCerrito
13
L
20/09/2026
DanubioWanderers
11
D
12/09/2026
WanderersClub Nacional
11
D
10/09/2026
Deportivo MaldonadoWanderers
41
L
05/09/2026
Deportivo MaldonadoWanderers
20
L
ProgresoProgreso
5W1D4L
17/10/2026
ProgresoJuventud
20
W10/10/2026
PenarolProgreso
11
D03/10/2026
Liverpool MontevideoProgreso
32
L26/09/2026
ProgresoRacing Montevideo
21
W19/09/2026
Boston RiverProgreso
12
W
16/09/2026
ProgresoClub Nacional
01
L
13/09/2026
ProgresoCerro
13
L
07/09/2026
Albion FCProgreso
01
W
03/09/2026
Albion FCProgreso
21
L
29/08/2026
ProgresoDanubio
10
W

Referee Profile

Mathias De Armas119 matches

4.73Cards per match
4.54Yellow cards per match
0.19Red cards per match
23.4Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Mathias De Armas4.73
Other referees5.96

4.73 cards a match, 1.23 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.96).

Cards come from 26 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Primera División 2026

Primera: Tabla Anual

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1PenarolPenarol34198751:27+2464DLWLW
2Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado34188854:32+2262DWWLW
3Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque341861057:40+1760DLDLL
4Club NacionalClub Nacional341841251:41+1058WLLWW
5Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo341512742:30+1257DWWWD
6Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo341511845:31+1456LWLDD
7WanderersWanderers341481241:43-250LLLWL
8Albion FCAlbion FC341371447:44+346WWDDW
9JuventudJuventud3410111337:41-441DWLLL
10Central EspanolCentral Espanol341081633:47-1438LDWWD
11Cerro LargoCerro Largo349101532:38-637LDDWL
12Boston RiverBoston River341071733:45-1237WLWWL
13CerroCerro341071728:51-2337DDWLW
14Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting348121433:43-1036DWLDD
15ProgresoProgreso341051931:47-1635WLLDD
16DanubioDanubio346141428:43-1532DDDLD
#TeamMPGPts
1PenarolPenarol3451:2764
2Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado3454:3262
3Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque3457:4060
4Club NacionalClub Nacional3451:4158
5Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo3442:3057
6Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo3445:3156
7WanderersWanderers3441:4350
8Albion FCAlbion FC3447:4446
9JuventudJuventud3437:4141
10Central EspanolCentral Espanol3433:4738
11Cerro LargoCerro Largo3432:3837
12Boston RiverBoston River3433:4537
13CerroCerro3428:5137
14Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting3433:4336
15ProgresoProgreso3431:4735
16DanubioDanubio3428:4332

Primera: Promedios

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1PenarolPenarol71431414117:61+56143DLWLW
2Club NacionalClub Nacional71421415127:74+53137WLLWW
3Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado34188854:32+2262DWWLW
4Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo7133221696:68+28121LWLDD
5Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo7129231981:68+13110DWWWD
6Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque71311624111:91+20109DLDLL
7JuventudJuventud7128182582:80+2102DWLLL
8Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting7126192675:81-697DWLDD
9Albion FCAlbion FC341371447:44+346WWDDW
10Boston RiverBoston River7124202783:84-192WLWWL
11Cerro LargoCerro Largo7121232773:79-686LDDWL
12CerroCerro7122183161:93-3283DDWLW
13WanderersWanderers7120213066:90-2481LLLWL
14Central EspanolCentral Espanol341081633:47-1438LDWWD
15DanubioDanubio7116272869:84-1575DDDLD
16ProgresoProgreso7120143769:107-3874WLLDD
#TeamMPGPts
1PenarolPenarol71117:61143
2Club NacionalClub Nacional71127:74137
3Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado3454:3262
4Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo7196:68121
5Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo7181:68110
6Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque71111:91109
7JuventudJuventud7182:80102
8Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting7175:8197
9Albion FCAlbion FC3447:4446
10Boston RiverBoston River7183:8492
11Cerro LargoCerro Largo7173:7986
12CerroCerro7161:9383
13WanderersWanderers7166:9081
14Central EspanolCentral Espanol3433:4738
15DanubioDanubio7169:8475
16ProgresoProgreso7169:10774

Primera: Torneo Intermedio — Group 2

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1WanderersWanderers743012:4+815LLLWL
2Club NacionalClub Nacional74128:8013WLLWW
3Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado733112:6+612DWWLW
4Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque740311:11012DLDLL
5JuventudJuventud72238:11-38DWLLL
6Albion FCAlbion FC71336:8-26WWDDW
7ProgresoProgreso72056:11-56WLLDD
8DanubioDanubio70435:9-44DDDLD
#TeamMPGPts
1WanderersWanderers712:415
2Club NacionalClub Nacional78:813
3Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado712:612
4Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque711:1112
5JuventudJuventud78:118
6Albion FCAlbion FC76:86
7ProgresoProgreso76:116
8DanubioDanubio75:94

Primera: Apertura

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo1594223:14+931DWWWD
2Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado1592424:16+829DWWLW
3Albion FCAlbion FC1584326:16+1028WWDDW
4PenarolPenarol1583423:16+727DLWLW
5Central EspanolCentral Espanol1573523:22+124LDWWD
6Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque1565422:16+623DLDLL
7Club NacionalClub Nacional1571726:21+522WLLWW
8Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting1556413:11+221DWLDD
9Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo1555520:18+220LWLDD
10WanderersWanderers1562716:21-520LLLWL
11DanubioDanubio1546517:21-418DDDLD
12Cerro LargoCerro Largo1552816:19-317LDDWL
13Boston RiverBoston River1552814:20-617WLWWL
14JuventudJuventud1543817:22-515DWLLL
15ProgresoProgreso1524912:23-1110WLLDD
16CerroCerro152498:24-1610DDWLW
#TeamMPGPts
1Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo1523:1431
2Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado1524:1629
3Albion FCAlbion FC1526:1628
4PenarolPenarol1523:1627
5Central EspanolCentral Espanol1523:2224
6Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque1522:1623
7Club NacionalClub Nacional1526:2122
8Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting1513:1121
9Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo1520:1820
10WanderersWanderers1516:2120
11DanubioDanubio1517:2118
12Cerro LargoCerro Largo1516:1917
13Boston RiverBoston River1514:2017
14JuventudJuventud1517:2215
15ProgresoProgreso1512:2310
16CerroCerro158:2410

Primera: Clausura

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo1283120:8+1227LWLDD
2Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque1281324:13+1125DLDLL
3Club NacionalClub Nacional1272317:12+523WLLWW
4Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado1263318:10+821DWWLW
5PenarolPenarol1264216:8+821DLWLW
6ProgresoProgreso1261513:13019WLLDD
7JuventudJuventud1246212:8+418DWLLL
8CerroCerro1253414:17-318DDWLW
9Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo1244415:13+216DWWWD
10Boston RiverBoston River1243514:15-115WLWWL
11WanderersWanderers1243513:18-515LLLWL
12Albion FCAlbion FC1240815:20-512WWDDW
13DanubioDanubio122466:13-710DDDLD
14Cerro LargoCerro Largo121659:14-59LDDWL
15Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting1223714:23-99DWLDD
16Central EspanolCentral Espanol121296:21-155LDWWD
#TeamMPGPts
1Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo1220:827
2Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque1224:1325
3Club NacionalClub Nacional1217:1223
4Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado1218:1021
5PenarolPenarol1216:821
6ProgresoProgreso1213:1319
7JuventudJuventud1212:818
8CerroCerro1214:1718
9Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo1215:1316
10Boston RiverBoston River1214:1515
11WanderersWanderers1213:1815
12Albion FCAlbion FC1215:2012
13DanubioDanubio126:1310
14Cerro LargoCerro Largo129:149
15Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting1214:239
16Central EspanolCentral Espanol126:215
PromotionRelegation

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About the Wanderers vs Progreso forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Wanderers and Progreso in the Primera División table

In the Primera División table, Wanderers are 7th and Progreso 15th, 15 points apart. League goal record so far: Wanderers 41-43, Progreso 31-47. The full standings are on the Primera División Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Progreso have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.