Waterford vs Dundalk Prediction

Waterford
1-1
Finished
HT 1-1
Dundalk
Regional Sports Centre, Waterford 11/09/2026
WaterfordWaterford
1-1
Finished
DundalkDundalk

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
4.0 / 10
AI Best Pick
73%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.42
SignalGOODModel44%SurpriseHighGap+2.6%
Value Analysis
77%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.42
SignalHIGHModel77%SurpriseHighGap+10.4%
Waterford Rest
7 days
Dundalk Rest
5 days

Waterford vs Dundalk: the result in context

Waterford and Dundalk drew 1-1 in the Premier Division on 11 Sep 2026. Waterford had gone in with the better form, having won 4 of their previous five against 2 for Dundalk.

When these two meet, goals usually follow: 3.4 a game across 10 meetings, with both teams scoring in 6.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
38%2.37
X
38%3.56
2
24%2.67
Double Chance
1X
76%1.42
X2
62%1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%1.44
No
50%2.55
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.47 + 1.01 = 2.48
Over 1.5
73%1.14
Over 2.5
48%1.51
Over 3.5
26%2.30
Under 1.5
27%5.00
Under 2.5
52%2.40
Under 3.5
74%1.59
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

21'John MahonOG
31'Keith BuckleyFoul
37'H. CannAssist: Bernardo Piexoto Couto
56'shane traceyFoul
60'shane tracey INBobby Burns out
61'John Ross Wilson INHarvey Warren out
61'leonardo gaxha INDeclan McDaid out
61'Keith Buckley INAodh Dervin out
65'Harvey WarrenFoul
72'Egor Vassenin INHarry Groome out
78'Evan McLaughlinFoul
90'ronan teahanFoul

Lineups

Waterford
4-4-2Coach: G. Coughlan
Dundalk
4-2-3-1Coach: C. Kilduff
Avg rating6.44
Avg rating6.39
S. McMullan5.91S. McMullan
H. Cann6.816H. Cann
J. Mahon6.05J. Mahon
K. Long6.813K. Long
Benny Couto7.23B. Couto
J. Voilås6.420J. Voilås
E. McLaughlin6.08E. McLaughlin
C. Noonan6.310C. Noonan
N. Mawene6.37N. Mawene
T. Lonergan6.418T. Lonergan
P. Amond6.79P. Amond
E. Minogue7.11E. Minogue
J. Wilson5.831J. Wilson
M. Animasahun6.14M. Animasahun
T. Grivosti5.944T. Grivosti
E. Vassenin6.216E. Vassenin
K. Buckley6.718K. Buckley
S. Tracey6.917S. Tracey
Leonardo Gaxha6.210L. Gaxha
R. Teahan6.811R. Teahan
D. Horgan6.57D. Horgan
C. Dillon6.49C. Dillon

Waterford Substitutes

32G. Amedu
6J. Ashton
11T. Coyle
21Arlo Ricky Hugh Doherty
17J. Faria
15L. Heeney
27D. McMenamy
12B. McKenzie
56A. Brennan

Dundalk Substitutes

3B. Burns60'for shane tracey6.6
6A. Dervin61'for Keith Buckley6.4
27D. McDaid61'for leonardo gaxha6.3
12L. Mulligan
20S. Safaei
19Sean Spaight
5H. Warren61'for John Ross Wilson65'6.0
23A. M. Keogh
8H. Groome72'for Egor Vassenin6.5

Match Stats

WaterfordDundalk
40%Ball Possession60%
9Corner Kicks1
1Yellow Cards4
17Total Shots10
8Shots on Goal2
7Shots off Goal6
17Shots Inside Box3
0Shots Outside Box7
2Blocked Shots2
16Fouls10
4Offsides1
2Goalkeeper Saves7
249Total Passes396
138Passes Accurate276
10Free Kicks16

Team Comparison

WaterfordWaterford
DundalkDundalk
1631Elo Rating 1521
2.53Attack 1.68
1.51Defense 1.32
83%Hit Rate 27%
16.0Shots per Game 18.6
6.1Shots on Target 5.8
4.6Corners per Game 5.2
1.7Cards per Game 1.4

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+110 Elo
📈BTTS Trend60% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

WaterfordWaterford
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.5 vs 1.1 in first half)
DundalkDundalk
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.5 vs 0.1 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

WaterfordWaterford5Wins · 50%
Draws330%
DundalkDundalk2Wins · 20%
3.4Avg Goals
60%Both teams scored6 of 10
60%3+ goals6 of 10

Previous meetings

Premier Division26/06/2026
DundalkWaterford
23
Premier Division04/05/2026
WaterfordDundalk
33
Premier Division13/03/2026
DundalkWaterford
50
Premier Division13/09/2024
WaterfordDundalk
21
Premier Division28/06/2024
DundalkWaterford
02
Premier Division10/05/2024
WaterfordDundalk
41
Premier Division15/03/2024
DundalkWaterford
00
FAI Cup16/09/2022
WaterfordDundalk
32
Premier Division29/10/2021
DundalkWaterford
10
Premier Division03/09/2021
WaterfordDundalk
11

Recent Form

WaterfordWaterford
7W3D0L
DundalkDundalk
3W2D5L
06/09/2026
Derry CityDundalk
42
L
28/08/2026
Drogheda UnitedDundalk
23
W
21/08/2026
DundalkGalway United
12
L
15/08/2026
DundalkCastlebar Celtic
80
W
07/08/2026
Shamrock RoversDundalk
32
L
31/07/2026
DundalkSligo Rovers
11
D
24/07/2026
St Patrick's Athl.Dundalk
11
D
17/07/2026
St Mochta'sDundalk
13
W
10/07/2026
DundalkDrogheda United
12
L
03/07/2026
ShelbourneDundalk
21
L

League Table

Premier Division 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Shamrock RoversShamrock Rovers36208859:38+2168LWLWW
2BohemiansBohemians36198963:44+1965WLWLW
3St Patrick's Athl.St Patrick's Athl.361791055:31+2460LDLLW
4ShelbourneShelbourne3612131152:50+249LWWWD
5Derry CityDerry City3611151050:47+348DWWLW
6DundalkDundalk3611121355:59-445WLDLL
7WaterfordWaterford3610131354:61-743WWWLL
8Galway UnitedGalway United3610121446:53-742LDLWD
9Drogheda UnitedDrogheda United3610101644:57-1340WLWLL
10Sligo RoversSligo Rovers365102128:66-3825DLDLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Shamrock RoversShamrock Rovers3659:3868
2BohemiansBohemians3663:4465
3St Patrick's Athl.St Patrick's Athl.3655:3160
4ShelbourneShelbourne3652:5049
5Derry CityDerry City3650:4748
6DundalkDundalk3655:5945
7WaterfordWaterford3654:6143
8Galway UnitedGalway United3646:5342
9Drogheda UnitedDrogheda United3644:5740
10Sligo RoversSligo Rovers3628:6625
Relegation

About the Waterford vs Dundalk forecast

The forecasts for this Premier Division match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Waterford and Dundalk in the Premier Division table

Dundalk and Waterford are close in the Premier Division table, 6th and 7th, with 2 points between them. League goal record so far: Waterford 54-61, Dundalk 55-59. The full standings are on the Premier Division Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.