Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Prediction
Spain · Regular Season - 7
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid: the result in context
Atletico Madrid beat Real Madrid 2-1 in the La Liga on 20 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
When these two meet, goals usually follow: 3.5 a game across 10 meetings, with both teams scoring in 9.
Match Forecasts
Match Events
Lineups
Atletico Madrid
Avg ratingAvg rating
13J. Oblak
18M. Pubill
21C. Romero
17D. Hancko
22Á. Grimaldo
20G. Simeone
14M. Llorente
5J. Cardoso
10Á. Baena
7L. Kang-In
15J. David
1T. Courtois
24D. Dumfries
16I. Konaté
4D. Huijsen
17M. Cucurella
8F. Valverde
14A. Tchouaméni
15A. Güler
5J. Bellingham
7V. Júnior
10K. MbappéAtletico Madrid Substitutes
Real Madrid Substitutes
Match Stats
Atletico MadridReal Madrid Team Comparison
Atletico MadridReal MadridAI Insights
Game State Tendencies
Atletico Madrid- Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (1.1 vs 0.4 in first half)
- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Real Madrid- Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
- Scores more in 2nd half (2.2 vs 0.9 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
Atletico Madrid2Wins · 20%3Wins · 30%Previous meetings
22/03/2026Real MadridAtletico Madrid
08/01/2026Atletico MadridReal Madrid27/09/2025Atletico MadridReal Madrid
12/03/2025Atletico MadridReal Madrid04/03/2025Real MadridAtletico Madrid08/02/2025Real MadridAtletico Madrid29/09/2024Atletico MadridReal Madrid04/02/2024Real MadridAtletico Madrid
18/01/2024Atletico MadridReal Madrid10/01/2024Real MadridAtletico MadridRecent Form
Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid
Osasuna
Real SociedadAtletico Madrid
LiverpoolAtletico Madrid
Athletic ClubAtletico Madrid
SevillaAtletico MadridAtletico Madrid
VillarrealAtletico Madrid
Malaga
MarseilleAtletico Madrid
Manchester CityAtletico Madrid
Manchester UnitedAtletico MadridReal Madrid
ElcheReal MadridReal Madrid
Rayo VallecanoReal Madrid
Inter
Real BetisReal MadridReal MadridMalagaReal MadridReal Sociedad
EspanyolReal Madrid
FC Schalke 04Real Madrid
Deportivo La CorunaReal Madrid
Ferencvarosi TCReal MadridReferee Profile
Compared with other referees
4.59 cards a match, 0.44 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.03).
Cards come from 133 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 39:9 | +30 | 27 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 19:8 | +11 | 22 | WWWWW |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 23:9 | +14 | 21 | WWLWW |
| 4 | Real Betis | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 16:14 | +2 | 19 | LWDWW |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 17:17 | 0 | 16 | WWWLW |
| 6 | Sevilla | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14:16 | -2 | 14 | LDLWW |
| 7 |  Alaves | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13:10 | +3 | 11 | LLDLL |
| 8 |  Celta Vigo | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 10:7 | +3 | 11 | WDWDD |
| 9 | Deportivo La Coruna | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 13:12 | +1 | 11 | DLDLD |
| 10 | Osasuna | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10:18 | -8 | 11 | WLDLL |
| 11 |  Levante | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 15:17 | -2 | 10 | WDDLL |
| 12 | Villarreal | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 13:13 | 0 | 9 | DLWWL |
| 13 | Athletic Club | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8:9 | -1 | 9 | DDDDW |
| 14 | Rayo Vallecano | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12:17 | -5 | 9 | DDWLW |
| 15 |  Getafe | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5:11 | -6 | 9 | DLWLD |
| 16 | Espanyol | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11:12 | -1 | 8 | LDLLW |
| 17 |  Racing Santander | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 13:25 | -12 | 8 | LDLLW |
| 18 | Elche | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11:17 | -6 | 7 | DDWLD |
| 19 |  Valencia | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6:15 | -9 | 6 | DDLWL |
| 20 | Malaga | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 6:18 | -12 | 4 | LDLLD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 9 | 39:9 | 27 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 9 | 19:8 | 22 |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 9 | 23:9 | 21 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 9 | 16:14 | 19 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 9 | 17:17 | 16 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 9 | 14:16 | 14 |
| 7 | Alaves | 9 | 13:10 | 11 |
| 8 | Celta Vigo | 9 | 10:7 | 11 |
| 9 | Deportivo La Coruna | 9 | 13:12 | 11 |
| 10 | Osasuna | 9 | 10:18 | 11 |
| 11 | Levante | 9 | 15:17 | 10 |
| 12 | Villarreal | 9 | 13:13 | 9 |
| 13 | Athletic Club | 8 | 8:9 | 9 |
| 14 | Rayo Vallecano | 8 | 12:17 | 9 |
| 15 | Getafe | 9 | 5:11 | 9 |
| 16 | Espanyol | 9 | 11:12 | 8 |
| 17 | Racing Santander | 9 | 13:25 | 8 |
| 18 | Elche | 9 | 11:17 | 7 |
| 19 | Valencia | 9 | 6:15 | 6 |
| 20 | Malaga | 9 | 6:18 | 4 |
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This match
About the Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid forecast
As a derby, this La Liga meeting carries extra weight; the forecasts take that context into account alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid in the La Liga table
This is a meeting of two top-four sides: Atletico Madrid are 2nd in the La Liga, 1 point ahead of Real Madrid in 3rd. League goal record so far: Atletico Madrid 19-8, Real Madrid 23-9. The full standings are on the La Liga Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This is a high-importance fixture for both sides, rated 7.0 out of 10 by our context model. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.