Elche vs Real Madrid Prediction

Elche
2-3
Finished
HT 0-2
Real Madrid
Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche 15/09/2026
ElcheElche
2-3
Finished
Real MadridReal Madrid

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
Value Analysis
72%Trust
Total Cards
Cards Under 4.5
1.57
SignalGOODModel72%SurpriseMediumGap+9.8%
Elche Rest
3 days
Real Madrid Rest
3 days

Elche vs Real Madrid: the result in context

Real Madrid beat Elche 3-2 in the La Liga on 15 Sep 2026. It was in line with recent form: Real Madrid had won 4 of their previous five, compared with none for Elche.

When these two meet, goals usually follow: 3.1 a game across 9 meetings, with both teams scoring in 6.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
16%13.00
X
22%7.00
2
62%1.21
Double Chance
1X
38%4.42
X2
84%1.04
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%1.70
No
48%2.05
Goals
Projected Goals: 1 + 1.75 = 2.75
Over 1.5
75%1.05
Over 2.5
58%1.30
Over 3.5
36%1.79
Under 1.5
25%7.65
Under 2.5
42%3.45
Under 3.5
64%2.04
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.4 + 5.2 = 9.6
Over 8.5
61%1.44
Over 9.5
52%1.72
Over 10.5
38%2.14
Under 8.5
39%2.63
Under 9.5
48%2.02
Under 10.5
62%1.60
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.8 + 1.8 = 3.6
Over 3.5
47%1.73
Over 4.5
28%2.31
Under 3.5
53%2.02
Under 4.5
72%1.57

Match Events

4'Yan DiomandeFoul
25'Matías DituroOG
31'Marc AguadoDissent
33'Kylian MbappéAssist: Yan Diomande
58'Marc Aguado INLucas Cepeda out
58'Germán Valera INThomas Lemar out
68'Vinícius INBrahim Díaz out
68'Arda Güler INJude Bellingham out
68'Buba Sangaré INRuben Sanchez Saez out
68'Martim Neto INFernando Niño Rodríguez out
71'Abiel Alessio OsorioAssist: Lucas Cepeda
73'Ibrahima KonatéFoul
78'Lucas CepedaFoul
80'Tete Morente INJosé Antonio Ferrández Pomares out
83'Fernando Niño RodríguezAssist: José Antonio Ferrández Pomares
86'Aurelien Tchouameni INEndrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa out
87'Trent Alexander-Arnold INCarlos Espí out
90+1'Carlos EspíAssist: Kylian Mbappé
90+2'Yan Diomande INDenzel Dumfries out
90+3'José Antonio Ferrández PomaresFoul
90+4'Gonzalo VillarArgument

Lineups

Elche
4-5-1Coach: M. Anselmi
Real Madrid
4-2-3-1Coach: José Mourinho
Avg rating6.39
Avg rating6.77
M. Dituro6.01M. Dituro
Buba Sangaré6.02B. Sangaré
F. Redondo6.55F. Redondo
Víctor Chust6.423V. Chust
R. Revivo6.13R. Revivo
Germán Valera5.811G. Valera
Martim Neto6.316M. Neto
Marc Aguado6.28M. Aguado
Gonzalo Villar6.712G. Villar
Tete Morente6.220T. Morente
A. Osorio7.724A. Osorio
T. Courtois6.11T. Courtois
T. Alexander-Arnold7.212T. Alexander-Arnold
I. Konaté6.316I. Konaté
D. Huijsen6.74D. Huijsen
Marc Cucurella6.517M. Cucurella
F. Valverde6.58F. Valverde
A. Tchouaméni6.614A. Tchouaméni
Y. Diomande7.325Y. Diomande
A. Güler7.115A. Güler
Vinícius Júnior6.37V. Júnior
Kylian Mbappé8.910K. Mbappé

Elche Substitutes

26Matia Barzic Gutiérrez
6Bigas
10F. Buonanotte
21L. Cepeda58'for Marc Aguado78'6.5
19G. Diangana
13Alejandro Iturbe
17Josan80'for Tete Morente90+3'5.7
18T. Lemar58'for Germán Valera6.6
14Fer Niño68'for Martim Neto83'7.9
9E. Ponce
22Rubén Sánchez68'for Buba Sangaré5.9
47J. Morcillo

Real Madrid Substitutes

20Bernardo Silva
22A. Rüdiger
27Thiago Pitarch
13A. Lunin
19Carlos Espí87'for Trent Alexander-Arnold90+1'7.9
9Endrick86'for Aurelien Tchouameni6.8
24D. Dumfries90+2'for Yan Diomande5.7
21Brahim Díaz68'for Vinícius6.1
18Álvaro Fernández
6E. Camavinga
2Raúl Asencio
5J. Bellingham68'for Arda Güler6.2

Match Stats

ElcheReal Madrid
56%Ball Possession44%
2Corner Kicks5
4Yellow Cards2
11Total Shots20
3Shots on Goal4
6Shots off Goal11
7Shots Inside Box15
4Shots Outside Box5
2Blocked Shots5
21Fouls8
1Offsides5
2Goalkeeper Saves1
542Total Passes430
493Passes Accurate383
91%Pass Accuracy89%

Team Comparison

ElcheElche
Real MadridReal Madrid
1746Elo Rating 2048
1.27Attack 3.11
2.50Defense 1.96
42%Hit Rate 100%
13.5Shots per Game 18.6
3.9Shots on Target 7.7
4.8Corners per Game 5.7
2.8Cards per Game 1.3

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend67% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

ElcheElche
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
Real MadridReal Madrid
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 9 meetings, all competitions

ElcheElche0Wins · 0%
Draws444%
Real MadridReal Madrid5Wins · 56%
3.1Avg Goals
67%Both teams scored6 of 9
78%3+ goals7 of 9

Previous meetings

La Liga14/03/2026
Real MadridElche
41
La Liga23/11/2025
ElcheReal Madrid
22
La Liga15/02/2023
Real MadridElche
40
La Liga19/10/2022
ElcheReal Madrid
03
La Liga23/01/2022
Real MadridElche
22
Copa del Rey20/01/2022
ElcheReal Madrid
1020
La Liga30/10/2021
ElcheReal Madrid
12
La Liga13/03/2021
Real MadridElche
21
La Liga30/12/2020
ElcheReal Madrid
11

Recent Form

ElcheElche
2W5D3L
12/09/2026
Athletic ClubElche
11
D
07/09/2026
ElcheReal Sociedad
23
L
28/08/2026
Racing SantanderElche
32
L
23/08/2026
ElcheBarcelona
05
L
17/08/2026
Deportivo La CorunaElche
11
D
31/07/2026
ElcheCordoba
22
D
28/07/2026
ElcheAl Ain
22
D
18/07/2026
ElcheKaizer Chiefs
21
W
23/05/2026
GironaElche
11
D
17/05/2026
ElcheGetafe
10
W
Real MadridReal Madrid
8W1D1L
12/09/2026
Real MadridRayo Vallecano
41
W
08/09/2026
Real MadridInter
21
W
04/09/2026
Real BetisReal Madrid
10
L
30/08/2026
Real MadridMalaga
40
W
26/08/2026
Real MadridReal Sociedad
41
W
22/08/2026
EspanyolReal Madrid
12
W
16/08/2026
FC Schalke 04Real Madrid
03
W
12/08/2026
Deportivo La CorunaReal Madrid
01
W
08/08/2026
Ferencvarosi TCReal Madrid
12
W
01/08/2026
Real MadridFiorentina
22
D

League Table

La Liga 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1BarcelonaBarcelona12110148:13+3533WWLWW
2Real MadridReal Madrid12100231:10+2130WWWWW
3Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid1291223:10+1328LWWWW
4Real BetisReal Betis1282220:15+526WWDLW
5Real SociedadReal Sociedad1271421:20+122WLWWW
6SevillaSevilla1253417:19-218DLWLD
7Athletic ClubAthletic Club1144315:11+416WWLDD
8VillarrealVillarreal1243517:15+215WLWDL
9Deportivo La CorunaDeportivo La Coruna1236315:14+115DWLDL
10Racing SantanderRacing Santander1242617:30-1314WLWLD
11Celta VigoCelta Vigo1227310:10013DLDWD
12AlavesAlaves1234515:17-213DLDLL
13EspanyolEspanyol1233613:14-112DWLLD
14Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano1133515:21-612WLDDD
15GetafeGetafe123368:18-1012LWLDL
16OsasunaOsasuna1233612:23-1112DLLWL
17LevanteLevante1225516:21-511DLLWD
18ElcheElche1224614:20-610LLWDD
19ValenciaValencia122378:20-129LWLDD
20MalagaMalaga120579:23-145LLDLD
#TeamMPGPts
1BarcelonaBarcelona1248:1333
2Real MadridReal Madrid1231:1030
3Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid1223:1028
4Real BetisReal Betis1220:1526
5Real SociedadReal Sociedad1221:2022
6SevillaSevilla1217:1918
7Athletic ClubAthletic Club1115:1116
8VillarrealVillarreal1217:1515
9Deportivo La CorunaDeportivo La Coruna1215:1415
10Racing SantanderRacing Santander1217:3014
11Celta VigoCelta Vigo1210:1013
12AlavesAlaves1215:1713
13EspanyolEspanyol1213:1412
14Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano1115:2112
15GetafeGetafe128:1812
16OsasunaOsasuna1212:2312
17LevanteLevante1216:2111
18ElcheElche1214:2010
19ValenciaValencia128:209
20MalagaMalaga129:235
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation

About the Elche vs Real Madrid forecast

The forecasts for this La Liga match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Elche and Real Madrid in the La Liga table

The table shows a wide gap: Real Madrid are 2nd in the La Liga, while Elche sit 18th, 20 points behind. League goal record so far: Elche 14-20, Real Madrid 31-10. The full standings are on the La Liga Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Real Madrid have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.