Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna Prediction
Spain · Regular Season - 6
Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid 16/09/2026
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
Value Analysis
67%Trust
Total Cards
Cards Under 4.5
1.38
SignalGOODModel67%SurpriseHighGap+5.2%
Atletico Madrid Rest
2 days
Osasuna Rest
4 days
Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna: the result in context
Atletico Madrid beat Osasuna 4-0 in the La Liga on 16 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Atletico Madrid have had the better of this fixture, winning 8 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 2.2 goals a game.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
158%1.40
X25%4.80
217%8.50
Double Chance
1X83%1.08
X243%3.00
Both Teams to Score
Yes52%2.00
No48%1.72
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.61 + 1.04 = 2.65
Over 1.574%1.24
Over 2.555%1.78
Over 3.524%2.88
Under 1.526%3.89
Under 2.545%2.06
Under 3.576%1.40
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.3 + 3.7 = 9
Over 8.546%1.55
Over 9.535%1.95
Over 10.526%2.50
Under 8.554%2.31
Under 9.565%1.82
Under 10.574%1.49
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.6 + 2.2 = 3.8
Over 3.553%2.00
Over 4.533%2.90
Under 3.547%1.73
Under 4.567%1.38
Match Events
24'Jonathan David
50'Ademola LookmanFoul
54'Lee Kang-InAssist: Jonathan David
59'Jonathan Dubasin INEnrique Barja Alfonso out
59'Raul Moro INRubén García out
60'Raul García INAnte Budimir out
63'Robin Le Normand
68'Cristian Romero INMarc Pubill out
68'Jonathan David INGiuliano Simeone Baldini out
68'Ademola Lookman INArnau Ortiz out
71'Íñigo Arguibide INJon Moncayola out
74'Asier Osambela INRomain Del Castillo out
82'Alejandro Baena RodríguezAssist: Johnny Cardoso
85'Johnny Cardoso INMorten Hjulmand out
85'Alejandro Grimaldo INDávid Hancko out
86'Rubén GarcíaFoul
90+3'Abel BretonesFoul
Lineups
Atletico MadridOsasuna
5-4-1Coach: Luis Miguel RamisAvg ratingAvg rating
13J. Oblak
14M. Llorente
21C. Romero
24R. Le Normand
22Á. Grimaldo
7L. Kang-In
6Koke
5J. Cardoso
10Á. Baena
15J. David
11A. Lookman
13A. Fernández
27Í. Arguibide
48R. Yeboah
22F. Boyomo
35U. Santos
23A. Bretones
21J. Dubasin
6L. Torró
29A. Osambela
18R. Moro
9R. GarcíaAtletico Madrid Substitutes
25Salvador Esquivel
1J. Musso
18Marc Pubill68'for Cristian Romero
17D. Hancko85'for Alejandro Grimaldo
27J. Dominguez
20G. Simeone68'for Jonathan David
23M. Hjulmand85'for Johnny Cardoso
3O. Vargas
16Arnau Ortiz68'for Ademola Lookman
4Rodrigo Mendoza
46J. Castillo
30Dani MartÃnez
Osasuna Substitutes
11Kike Barja59'for Jonathan Dubasin
14Rubén García59'for Raul Moro86'
20R. Del Castillo74'for Asier Osambela
8Iker Muñoz
26Mauro Echegoyen
17A. Budimir60'for Raul García
7Moncayola71'for Íñigo Arguibide
15Diego Rico
24Catena
1Sergio Herrera
30Asier Bonel
31Rafa Fernández
Match Stats
Atletico MadridOsasuna 68%Ball Possession32%
8Corner Kicks0
1Yellow Cards2
26Total Shots3
11Shots on Goal1
7Shots off Goal1
18Shots Inside Box3
8Shots Outside Box0
8Blocked Shots1
8Fouls12
1Offsides1
1Goalkeeper Saves7
657Total Passes313
581Passes Accurate232
12Free Kicks5
Team Comparison
Atletico MadridOsasuna1942Elo Rating 1684
0.96Attack 2.26
2.30Defense 1.37
56%Hit Rate 39%
13.2Shots per Game 12.7
4.1Shots on Target 3.6
4.7Corners per Game 3.9
1.9Cards per Game 3.2
AI Insights
🏠Strong Home Advantage+258 Elo
📉Home Underperforming
📊Away Overperforming
⚠️Away Rotation Risk70%
Game State Tendencies
Atletico Madrid- Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (0.7 vs 0.2 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half and can tire late
Osasuna- Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
- Concedes more in 2nd half and can tire late
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
Atletico Madrid8Wins · 80%Draws00%
Osasuna2Wins · 20%
2Wins · 20%2.2Avg Goals
20%Both teams scored2 of 10
40%3+ goals4 of 10
Previous meetings
12/05/2026OsasunaAtletico Madrid12
18/10/2025Atletico MadridOsasuna10
15/05/2025OsasunaAtletico Madrid20
12/01/2025Atletico MadridOsasuna10
19/05/2024Atletico MadridOsasuna14
28/09/2023OsasunaAtletico Madrid02
21/05/2023Atletico MadridOsasuna30
29/01/2023OsasunaAtletico Madrid01
19/02/2022OsasunaAtletico Madrid03
20/11/2021Atletico MadridOsasuna10
Recent Form
Atletico Madrid5W1D4L
13/09/2026
Real SociedadAtletico Madrid
LiverpoolAtletico Madrid
Athletic ClubAtletico Madrid
SevillaAtletico MadridAtletico Madrid
VillarrealAtletico Madrid
Malaga
Real SociedadAtletico Madrid03
W09/09/2026LiverpoolAtletico Madrid21
L05/09/2026Athletic ClubAtletico Madrid30
L29/08/2026SevillaAtletico Madrid13
W23/08/2026Atletico MadridVillarreal22
D19/08/2026Atletico MadridMalaga20
W14/08/2026
MarseilleAtletico Madrid
MarseilleAtletico Madrid12
W09/08/2026
Manchester CityAtletico Madrid
Manchester CityAtletico Madrid31
L01/08/2026
Manchester UnitedAtletico Madrid
Manchester UnitedAtletico Madrid21
L29/07/2026Atletico Madrid
Getafe
Atletico MadridGetafe41
WOsasuna5W1D4L
12/09/2026Osasuna
Espanyol
AlavesOsasunaOsasunaGetafe
Celta VigoOsasunaOsasuna
Levante
OsasunaEspanyol02
L06/09/2026AlavesOsasuna52
L31/08/2026OsasunaGetafe10
W27/08/2026Celta VigoOsasuna12
W24/08/2026OsasunaLevante00
D08/08/2026Osasuna
Al Ain
OsasunaAl Ain02
L05/08/2026
NapoliOsasuna
NapoliOsasuna21
L01/08/2026
NorwichOsasuna
NorwichOsasuna12
W29/07/2026
IpswichOsasuna
IpswichOsasuna12
W24/07/2026Osasuna
Racing Santander
OsasunaRacing Santander20
WLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 48:13 | +35 | 33 | WWLWW |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 31:10 | +21 | 30 | WWWWW |
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 23:10 | +13 | 28 | LWWWW |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 20:15 | +5 | 26 | WWDLW |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 21:20 | +1 | 22 | WLWWW |
| 6 | Sevilla | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 17:19 | -2 | 18 | DLWLD |
| 7 | Athletic Club | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 15:11 | +4 | 16 | WWLDD |
| 8 | Villarreal | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 17:15 | +2 | 15 | WLWDL |
| 9 |  Deportivo La Coruna | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 15:14 | +1 | 15 | DWLDL |
| 10 | Racing Santander | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 17:30 | -13 | 14 | WLWLD |
| 11 | Celta Vigo | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 10:10 | 0 | 13 | DLDWD |
| 12 | Alaves | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 15:17 | -2 | 13 | DLDLL |
| 13 | Espanyol | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13:14 | -1 | 12 | DWLLD |
| 14 |  Rayo Vallecano | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15:21 | -6 | 12 | WLDDD |
| 15 | Getafe | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8:18 | -10 | 12 | LWLDL |
| 16 | Osasuna | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12:23 | -11 | 12 | DLLWL |
| 17 | Levante | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 16:21 | -5 | 11 | DLLWD |
| 18 |  Elche | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14:20 | -6 | 10 | LLWDD |
| 19 |  Valencia | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 8:20 | -12 | 9 | LWLDD |
| 20 | Malaga | 12 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 9:23 | -14 | 5 | LLDLD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 12 | 48:13 | 33 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 12 | 31:10 | 30 |
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 12 | 23:10 | 28 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 12 | 20:15 | 26 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 12 | 21:20 | 22 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 12 | 17:19 | 18 |
| 7 | Athletic Club | 11 | 15:11 | 16 |
| 8 | Villarreal | 12 | 17:15 | 15 |
| 9 | Deportivo La Coruna | 12 | 15:14 | 15 |
| 10 | Racing Santander | 12 | 17:30 | 14 |
| 11 | Celta Vigo | 12 | 10:10 | 13 |
| 12 | Alaves | 12 | 15:17 | 13 |
| 13 | Espanyol | 12 | 13:14 | 12 |
| 14 | Rayo Vallecano | 11 | 15:21 | 12 |
| 15 | Getafe | 12 | 8:18 | 12 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 12 | 12:23 | 12 |
| 17 | Levante | 12 | 16:21 | 11 |
| 18 | Elche | 12 | 14:20 | 10 |
| 19 | Valencia | 12 | 8:20 | 9 |
| 20 | Malaga | 12 | 9:23 | 5 |
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About the Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna forecast
The forecasts for this La Liga match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage is the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% means strong statistical confidence; 45-65% points to a competitive, open match; below 45% means the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for information and entertainment only.
Atletico Madrid and Osasuna in the La Liga table
In the La Liga table, Atletico Madrid are 3rd and Osasuna 16th, 16 points apart. League goal record so far: Atletico Madrid 23-10, Osasuna 12-23. The full standings are on the La Liga Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
Osasuna have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.