Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna Prediction

Atletico Madrid
4-0
Finished
HT 1-0
Osasuna
Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid 16/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
Value Analysis
67%Trust
Total Cards
Cards Under 4.5
1.38
SignalHIGHModel67%RiskHighGap+5.2%
Atletico Madrid Rest
2 days
Osasuna Rest
4 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
58%1.40
X
25%4.80
2
17%8.50
Double Chance
1X
83%1.08
X2
43%3.00
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%2.00
No
48%1.72
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.61 + 1.04 = 2.65
Over 1.5
74%1.24
Over 2.5
55%1.78
Over 3.5
24%2.88
Under 1.5
26%3.89
Under 2.5
45%2.06
Under 3.5
76%1.40
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.3 + 3.7 = 9
Over 8.5
46%1.55
Over 9.5
35%1.95
Over 10.5
26%2.50
Under 8.5
54%2.31
Under 9.5
65%1.82
Under 10.5
74%1.49
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.6 + 2.2 = 3.8
Over 3.5
53%2.00
Over 4.5
33%2.90
Under 3.5
47%1.73
Under 4.5
67%1.38

Match Events

24'Jonathan David
50'Ademola LookmanFoul
54'Lee Kang-InAssist: Jonathan David
59'Jonathan Dubasin INEnrique Barja Alfonso out
59'Raul Moro INRubén García out
60'Raul García INAnte Budimir out
63'Robin Le Normand
68'Cristian Romero INMarc Pubill out
68'Jonathan David INGiuliano Simeone Baldini out
68'Ademola Lookman INArnau Ortiz out
71'Íñigo Arguibide INJon Moncayola out
74'Asier Osambela INRomain Del Castillo out
82'Alejandro Baena RodríguezAssist: Johnny Cardoso
85'Johnny Cardoso INMorten Hjulmand out
85'Alejandro Grimaldo INDávid Hancko out
86'Rubén GarcíaFoul
90+3'Abel BretonesFoul

Lineups

Atletico Madrid
4-4-2Coach: D. Simeone
Osasuna
5-4-1Coach: Luis Miguel Ramis
J. Oblak13J. OblakJ. Oblak
Marcos Llorente14M. LlorenteMarcos Llorente
C. Romero21C. RomeroC. Romero
Robin Le Normand24R. Le NormandRobin Le Normand
Álex Grimaldo22Á. GrimaldoÁlex Grimaldo
Lee Kang-In7L. Kang-InLee Kang-In
Koke6KokeKoke
J. Cardoso5J. CardosoJ. Cardoso
Álex Baena10Á. BaenaÁlex Baena
J. David15J. DavidJ. David
A. Lookman11A. LookmanA. Lookman
Aitor Fernández13A. FernándezAitor Fernández
Íñigo Arguibide27Í. ArguibideÍñigo Arguibide
R. Yeboah48R. YeboahR. Yeboah
F. Boyomo22F. BoyomoF. Boyomo
U. Santos35U. SantosU. Santos
Abel Bretones23A. BretonesAbel Bretones
Jonathan Dubasin21J. DubasinJonathan Dubasin
Lucas Torró6L. TorróLucas Torró
Asier Osambela29A. OsambelaAsier Osambela
Raul Moro18R. MoroRaul Moro
Raúl García9R. GarcíaRaúl García

Atletico Madrid Substitutes

25Salvador EsquivelG
1J. MussoG
18Marc PubillD
17D. HanckoD
27J. DominguezD
20G. SimeoneF
23M. HjulmandM
3O. VargasM
16Arnau OrtizF
4Rodrigo MendozaM
46J. CastilloM
30Dani MartínezD

Osasuna Substitutes

11Kike BarjaF
14Rubén GarcíaM
20R. Del CastilloM
8Iker MuñozM
26Mauro EchegoyenM
17A. BudimirF
7MoncayolaM
15Diego RicoD
24CatenaD
1Sergio HerreraG
30Asier BonelF
31Rafa FernándezG

Match Stats

Atletico MadridOsasuna
68%Ball Possession32%
8Corner Kicks0
1Yellow Cards2
27Total Shots3
11Shots on Goal1
8Shots off Goal1
19Shots Inside Box3
8Shots Outside Box0
8Blocked Shots1
7Fouls12
1Offsides1
1Goalkeeper Saves7
656Total Passes314
580Passes Accurate232
12Free Kicks4

Team Comparison

Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid
OsasunaOsasuna
1876Elo Rating 1704
1.82Attack 0.98
1.51Defense 1.15
44%Hit Rate 36%
13.2Shots per Game 10.2
4.6Shots on Target 4.3
4.5Corners per Game 3.2
1.4Cards per Game 2.2

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+173 Elo
📉Away Underperforming
⚠️Away Rotation Risk70%

Game State Tendencies

Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.1 vs 0.7 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
OsasunaOsasuna
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0.2 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

League Table

La Liga 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1BarcelonaBarcelona660028:6+2218WWWWW
2Real MadridReal Madrid650117:6+1115WWLWW
3Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid641114:6+813WWLWD
4SevillaSevilla64119:6+313WWDLW
5Real BetisReal Betis54017:6+112WWLWW
6AlavesAlaves631211:6+510LLWWD
7Deportivo La CorunaDeportivo La Coruna62319:7+29LDWWD
8EspanyolEspanyol62139:7+27LWDLL
9Athletic ClubAthletic Club52127:6+17DWWLL
10Racing SantanderRacing Santander621311:16-57LWLWL
11Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano621310:15-57WLWLD
12Real SociedadReal Sociedad62136:11-57LWDWL
13OsasunaOsasuna62135:12-77LLLWW
14LevanteLevante51227:9-25LDWDL
15GetafeGetafe51223:6-35DDLWL
16Celta VigoCelta Vigo60423:6-34DDDLL
17ValenciaValencia61142:10-84WLLLL
18MalagaMalaga50322:8-63DDLDL
19VillarrealVillarreal50237:10-32LLLDD
20ElcheElche60248:16-82LDLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1BarcelonaBarcelona628:618
2Real MadridReal Madrid617:615
3Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid614:613
4SevillaSevilla69:613
5Real BetisReal Betis57:612
6AlavesAlaves611:610
7Deportivo La CorunaDeportivo La Coruna69:79
8EspanyolEspanyol69:77
9Athletic ClubAthletic Club57:67
10Racing SantanderRacing Santander611:167
11Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano610:157
12Real SociedadReal Sociedad66:117
13OsasunaOsasuna65:127
14LevanteLevante57:95
15GetafeGetafe53:65
16Celta VigoCelta Vigo63:64
17ValenciaValencia62:104
18MalagaMalaga52:83
19VillarrealVillarreal57:102
20ElcheElche68:162
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation

Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna Prediction

Our AI model has analysed this La Liga fixture using team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history. The forecasts cover six independent markets - each probability is a separate model calculation, not derived from the match winner result.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About La Liga

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Key Factors for This Match

Atletico Madrid and Osasuna have met 5 times recently, averaging 2.3 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.