Austin vs San Diego Prediction

Austin
3-3
Finished
HT 0-0
San Diego
Q2 Stadium, Austin·Jon Freemon 27/09/2026
AustinAustin
3-3
Finished
San DiegoSan Diego

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
58%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.57
SignalNEUTRALModel42%SurpriseMediumGap-5.4%
Value Analysis
68%Trust
Home Cards
Home Cards Under 2.5
1.59
SignalGOODModel68%SurpriseMediumGap+5.9%
Austin Rest
7 days
San Diego Rest
6 days

Austin vs San Diego: the result in context

Austin and San Diego drew 3-3 in the Major League Soccer on 27 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

When these two meet, goals usually follow: 3.3 a game across 3 meetings, with both teams scoring in 1.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
36%2.50
X
27%3.69
2
37%2.53
Double Chance
1X
63%1.44
X2
64%1.50
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%1.49
No
38%2.50
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.46 + 1.36 = 2.82
Over 1.5
80%1.17
Over 2.5
58%1.57
Over 3.5
37%2.44
Under 1.5
20%4.89
Under 2.5
42%2.35
Under 3.5
63%1.53
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.5 + 4.3 = 9.9
Over 8.5
61%1.44
Over 9.5
48%1.74
Over 10.5
36%2.18
Under 8.5
39%2.65
Under 9.5
52%2.00
Under 10.5
64%1.61
Cards
Projected Cards: 2 + 2.4 = 4.4
Over 3.5
64%1.47
Over 4.5
45%1.97
Under 3.5
36%2.58
Under 4.5
55%1.82

Match Events

36'Žan Kolmanič INOleksandr Svatok out
45'David Vazquez INCédric Bakambu out
50'Aníbal Godoy
57'Mikkel DeslerOG
64'Marcus IngvartsenAssist: Anders Dreyer
65'Oleksandr Svatok INIlie Sánchez out
65'Besard Sabovic INJorge Alastuey out
73'Brandon VazquezAssist: Ervin Torres
82'Christian RamirezAssist: Jon Bell
86'Christian RamirezAssist: Jon Gallagher
87'Christian Ramirez
89'Ian Murphy INAlejandro Alvarado Jr out
89'Oscar Verhoeven INDagur Dan Þórhallsson out
90+5'Aníbal Godoy INBryan Zamblé out

Lineups

Austin
3-4-3Coach: D. Arnaud
San Diego
3-4-3Coach: Mikey Varas
Avg rating6.66
Avg rating6.73
D. Las6.112D. Las
M. Desler5.63M. Desler
B. Hines-Ike6.24B. Hines-Ike
J. Bell6.915J. Bell
J. Gallagher6.717J. Gallagher
Ervin Torres7.738E. Torres
B. Šabović6.514B. Šabović
Ž. Kolmanič5.623Ž. Kolmanič
F. Torres6.411F. Torres
B. Vázquez8.09B. Vázquez
C. Ramirez8.721C. Ramirez
D. Ferree6.118D. Ferree
M. Duah6.526M. Duah
I. Pilcher6.325I. Pilcher
I. Murphy6.332I. Murphy
O. Verhoeven6.233O. Verhoeven
J. Tverskov6.66J. Tverskov
A. Godoy8.220A. Godoy
Kieran Sargeant6.25K. Sargeant
A. Dreyer7.710A. Dreyer
M. Ingvartsen8.27M. Ingvartsen
D. Vazquez6.519D. Vazquez

Austin Substitutes

5O. Svatok36'for Žan Kolmanič65'for Ilie Sánchez6.2
24Jorge Alastuey65'for Besard Sabovic6.4
22Chris Applewhite
32M. Burton
35M. Đorđević
26Patrick Cayelli
40E. Lauta
6Ilie Sánchez65'replaced by Oleksandr Svatok6.4
25Stefan Dobrijevic

San Diego Substitutes

97C. McVey
94C. Bakambu45'for David Vazquez6.6
70A. Alvarado89'for Ian Murphy6.8
3D. Þór­halls­son89'for Oscar Verhoeven6.0
15P. Soma
77A. Mighten
17O. Søe
16M. Alstrup
14B. B. Zamble90+5'for Aníbal Godoy

Match Stats

AustinSan Diego
42%Ball Possession58%
4Corner Kicks1
1Yellow Cards0
13Total Shots15
6Shots on Goal5
5Shots off Goal5
11Shots Inside Box12
2Shots Outside Box3
2Blocked Shots5
11Fouls6
2Offsides0
3Goalkeeper Saves3
470Total Passes687
409Passes Accurate623
6Free Kicks11

Team Comparison

AustinAustin
San DiegoSan Diego
1542Elo Rating 1572
1.19Attack 2.20
0.50Defense 0.22
0%Hit Rate 0%
11.1Shots per Game 14.3
4.7Shots on Target 5.5
4.5Corners per Game 4.8
0.6Cards per Game 1.7

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy2.82 goals
📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

AustinAustin
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0.3 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
San DiegoSan Diego
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 3 meetings, all competitions

AustinAustin1Wins · 33%
Draws00%
San DiegoSan Diego2Wins · 67%
3.3Avg Goals
33%Both teams scored1 of 3
67%3+ goals2 of 3

Previous meetings

Major League Soccer14/05/2026
San DiegoAustin
50
Major League Soccer01/06/2025
San DiegoAustin
20
Major League Soccer23/03/2025
AustinSan Diego
21

Referee Profile

Jon Freemon125 matches

4.68Cards per match
4.49Yellow cards per match
0.19Red cards per match
24.9Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Jon Freemon4.68
Other referees4.35

4.68 cards a match, 0.33 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.35).

Cards come from 114 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver Whitecaps30167763:31+3255WDDLD
2St. Louis CitySt. Louis City30149756:41+1551LDWWW
3FC DallasFC Dallas30149755:47+851DWLWD
4San Jose EarthquakesSan Jose Earthquakes30139852:42+1048DDDWD
5Houston DynamoHouston Dynamo30138941:39+247DDDLD
6Los Angeles FCLos Angeles FC311210948:33+1546DWDLD
7Seattle SoundersSeattle Sounders301191039:37+242DLWWW
8Los Angeles GalaxyLos Angeles Galaxy3110101143:52-940DWLWW
9Colorado RapidsColorado Rapids301161341:41039DDDLD
10Real Salt LakeReal Salt Lake301061445:48-336WDLWL
11Portland TimbersPortland Timbers30971451:56-534DLDLL
12San DiegoSan Diego308101253:56-334DDLDD
13Minnesota United FCMinnesota United FC308101247:55-834WDDLL
14AustinAustin307101338:56-1831LLLDD
15Sporting Kansas CitySporting Kansas City30642036:75-3922LLDLW
#TeamMPGPts
1Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver Whitecaps3063:3155
2St. Louis CitySt. Louis City3056:4151
3FC DallasFC Dallas3055:4751
4San Jose EarthquakesSan Jose Earthquakes3052:4248
5Houston DynamoHouston Dynamo3041:3947
6Los Angeles FCLos Angeles FC3148:3346
7Seattle SoundersSeattle Sounders3039:3742
8Los Angeles GalaxyLos Angeles Galaxy3143:5240
9Colorado RapidsColorado Rapids3041:4139
10Real Salt LakeReal Salt Lake3045:4836
11Portland TimbersPortland Timbers3051:5634
12San DiegoSan Diego3053:5634
13Minnesota United FCMinnesota United FC3047:5534
14AustinAustin3038:5631
15Sporting Kansas CitySporting Kansas City3036:7522
Promotion

About the Austin vs San Diego forecast

The forecasts for this Major League Soccer match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Austin and San Diego in the Major League Soccer table

San Diego and Austin are close in the Major League Soccer table, 12th and 14th, with 3 points between them. League goal record so far: Austin 38-56, San Diego 53-56. The full standings are on the Major League Soccer Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.