Bahia vs Flamengo Prediction

Serie ABrazil Brazil · Regular Season - 31
Bahia
0-3
Finished
HT 0-0
Flamengo
Arena Fonte Nova, El Salvador·Wilton Sampaio 18/10/2026
BahiaBahia
0-3
Finished
FlamengoFlamengo

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
80%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.19
SignalHIGHModel47%SurpriseMediumGap-4.5%
Bahia Rest
6 days
Flamengo Rest
2 days

Bahia vs Flamengo: the result in context

Flamengo beat Bahia 3-0 in the Serie A on 18 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Flamengo have had the better of this fixture, winning 9 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 2.0 goals a game. Flamengo tend to win more corners, 6.6 a game to 4.5 for Bahia.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
28%3.30
X
26%3.70
2
46%2.07
Double Chance
1X
54%1.73
X2
72%1.32
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%1.54
No
42%2.30
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.15 + 1.4 = 2.55
Over 1.5
79%1.19
Over 2.5
55%1.67
Over 3.5
34%2.61
Under 1.5
21%4.37
Under 2.5
45%2.19
Under 3.5
66%1.46
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.1 + 5 = 10.1
Over 8.5
66%1.32
Over 9.5
54%1.56
Over 10.5
43%1.93
Under 8.5
34%2.88
Under 9.5
46%2.20
Under 10.5
57%1.80
Cards
Projected Cards: 3.1 + 2.6 = 5.7
Over 3.5
82%-
Over 4.5
67%1.64
Under 3.5
18%-
Under 4.5
33%2.20

Match Events

3'Erick PulgarFoul
41'Cristian OliveraFoul
48'Léo PereiraDissent
51'Jean LucasFoul
64'Jorginho(Penalty)
65'Nicolas Acevedo INCaio Alexandre out
65'Marcos Victor INRomán Gómez out
65'Cristian Olivera INAdemir out
68'Jorge Carrascal INLucas Paquetá out
73'Gonzalo PlataAssist: Samuel Lino
75'Rodrigo Nestor INÉverton Ribeiro out
75'erick pulga INMateo Naín Sanabria out
75'Samuel Lino INJoaquín Freitas out
76'Pedro INBruno Henrique out
78'Lucas PaquetáAssist: Guillermo Varela
83'Léo Ortiz INVitão out
83'Erick Pulgar INNicolas De la Cruz out
86'Marco MorenoFoul
89'Román GómezFoul

Lineups

Bahia
5-3-2Coach: Rogério Ceni
Flamengo
4-2-3-1Coach: Leonardo Jardim
Avg rating6.28
Avg rating7.24
Ronaldo8.01Ronaldo
C. Olivera5.999C. Olivera
Marcos Victor6.144M. Victor
David Duarte6.433D. Duarte
Marco Moreno6.13M. Moreno
Luciano Juba6.346L. Juba
Jean Lucas5.96J. Lucas
N. Acevedo5.55N. Acevedo
Rodrigo Nestor5.511R. Nestor
Erick Pulga6.316E. Pulga
A. Véliz6.49A. Véliz
A. Rossi7.21A. Rossi
G. Varela7.42G. Varela
Léo Ortiz7.63L. Ortiz
Léo Pereira7.44L. Pereira
Emerson Royal7.122E. Royal
Jorginho7.821Jorginho
E. Pulgar6.95E. Pulgar
G. Plata8.219G. Plata
J. Carrascal7.215J. Carrascal
Samuel Lino7.716S. Lino
Pedro6.39Pedro

Bahia Substitutes

66Zé Guilherme
12Willian José
23M. Sanabria75'for erick pulga6.5
15M. Araújo
4Kanu
17G. Herrera
31Roman Gomez65'for Marcos Victor89'6.0
10Éverton Ribeiro75'for Rodrigo Nestor6.2
27Everaldo
14Erick
8Caio Alexandre65'for Nicolas Acevedo6.7
7Ademir65'for Cristian Olivera6.6

Flamengo Substitutes

42Andrew
27Bruno Henrique76'for Pedro6.5
26Alex Sandro
49Dyogo
18N. de la Cruz83'for Erick Pulgar6.9
77Johnny Góes
61João Victor Cunha
11Lucas Paquetá68'for Jorge Carrascal78'8.1
7Luiz Araújo
14A. Valencia
44Vitão83'for Léo Ortiz7.0
30J. Freitas75'for Samuel Lino6.6

Match Stats

BahiaFlamengo
36%Ball Possession64%
4Corner Kicks14
4Yellow Cards2
9Total Shots21
3Shots on Goal15
3Shots off Goal2
6Shots Inside Box16
3Shots Outside Box5
3Blocked Shots4
12Fouls9
1Offsides3
11Goalkeeper Saves3
341Total Passes573
278Passes Accurate512
8Free Kicks12

Team Comparison

BahiaBahia
FlamengoFlamengo
1706Elo Rating 1919
0.68Attack 1.62
1.52Defense 2.53
37%Hit Rate 61%
12.1Shots per Game 13.7
3.2Shots on Target 7.1
4.5Corners per Game 6.6
2.5Cards per Game 3.1

AI Insights

📉Home Underperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

BahiaBahia
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.5 vs 0.1 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
FlamengoFlamengo
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.1 vs 0.5 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

BahiaBahia1Wins · 10%
Draws00%
FlamengoFlamengo9Wins · 90%
2.0Avg Goals
20%Both teams scored2 of 10
30%3+ goals3 of 10

Previous meetings

Serie A20/04/2026
FlamengoBahia
20
Serie A05/10/2025
BahiaFlamengo
10
Serie A11/05/2025
FlamengoBahia
10
Serie A06/10/2024
BahiaFlamengo
02
Copa Do Brasil13/09/2024
FlamengoBahia
10
Copa Do Brasil29/08/2024
BahiaFlamengo
01
Serie A21/06/2024
FlamengoBahia
21
Serie A30/09/2023
FlamengoBahia
10
Serie A13/05/2023
BahiaFlamengo
23
Serie A11/11/2021
FlamengoBahia
30

Recent Form

BahiaBahia
5W3D2L
12/10/2026
BahiaMirassol
10
W09/10/2026
PalmeirasBahia
10
L
21/09/2026
Atletico ParanaenseBahia
21
L
15/09/2026
BahiaRemo
21
W05/09/2026
RB BragantinoBahia
23
W31/08/2026
BahiaInternacional
32
W23/08/2026
VitoriaBahia
02
W16/08/2026
Chapecoense-scBahia
33
D09/08/2026
BahiaVasco DA Gama
00
D30/07/2026
FluminenseBahia
00
D
FlamengoFlamengo
7W3D0L
16/10/2026
Estudiantes L.P.Flamengo
00
D11/10/2026
FlamengoFluminense
10
W
09/10/2026
SantosFlamengo
22
D
20/09/2026
FlamengoRB Bragantino
21
W
18/09/2026
FlamengoIndependiente del Valle
11
D
13/09/2026
FlamengoCorinthians
21
W11/09/2026
Independiente del ValleFlamengo
02
W06/09/2026
RemoFlamengo
01
W03/09/2026
FlamengoMirassol
20
W30/08/2026
FlamengoBotafogo
30
W

Referee Profile

Wilton Sampaio311 matches

5.07Cards per match
4.84Yellow cards per match
0.23Red cards per match
26.5Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Wilton Sampaio5.07
Other referees5.06

5.07 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.06).

Cards come from 254 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FlamengoFlamengo31207461:25+3667WWDWW
2PalmeirasPalmeiras31199354:22+3266WWWDW
3Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense31158849:37+1253LWDWD
4CruzeiroCruzeiro311561050:46+451WLWWL
5FluminenseFluminense31149849:39+1051LLWWL
6Atletico-MGAtletico-MG31148942:35+750WWDWD
7BahiaBahia311310844:39+549LWLLW
8SantosSantos311291048:46+245WLDWW
9Sao PauloSao Paulo311261336:35+142WWLLW
10RB BragantinoRB Bragantino311181239:36+341DWDLL
11BotafogoBotafogo311091244:48-439WDLLW
12CoritibaCoritiba311091238:49-1139LDLLD
13VitoriaVitoria311071434:45-1137DLWLD
14MirassolMirassol31991336:44-836WLDWD
15Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama30981336:43-735LDWWW
16CorinthiansCorinthians31891432:39-733DLLLL
17InternacionalInternacional317111333:40-732LDWLW
18GremioGremio317101434:44-1031LDDDL
19RemoRemo315111534:49-1526DDDLL
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc30391830:62-3218LLLDL
#TeamMPGPts
1FlamengoFlamengo3161:2567
2PalmeirasPalmeiras3154:2266
3Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense3149:3753
4CruzeiroCruzeiro3150:4651
5FluminenseFluminense3149:3951
6Atletico-MGAtletico-MG3142:3550
7BahiaBahia3144:3949
8SantosSantos3148:4645
9Sao PauloSao Paulo3136:3542
10RB BragantinoRB Bragantino3139:3641
11BotafogoBotafogo3144:4839
12CoritibaCoritiba3138:4939
13VitoriaVitoria3134:4537
14MirassolMirassol3136:4436
15Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama3036:4335
16CorinthiansCorinthians3132:3933
17InternacionalInternacional3133:4032
18GremioGremio3134:4431
19RemoRemo3134:4926
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc3030:6218
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About the Bahia vs Flamengo forecast

The forecasts for this Serie A match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Bahia and Flamengo in the Serie A table

In the Serie A table, Flamengo are 1st and Bahia 7th, 18 points apart. League goal record so far: Bahia 44-39, Flamengo 61-25. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.