Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia Prediction

Chapecoense-sc
3-3
Finished
HT 1-2
Bahia
Arena Condá, Chapecó·Daiane Caroline Muniz Dos Santos, Brazil 16/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
Value Analysis
77%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.30
SignalHIGHModel42%SurpriseMediumGap+6.0%
Chapecoense-sc Rest
7 days
Bahia Rest
6 days

Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia: the result in context

Chapecoense-sc and Bahia drew 3-3 in the Serie A on 16 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Bahia have had the better of this fixture, winning 3 of the 5 previous meetings, which averaged 2.4 goals a game. Bahia tend to win more corners, 6.6 a game to 4.1 for Chapecoense-sc.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
37%3.55
X
25%3.42
2
38%2.05
Double Chance
1X
62%1.73
X2
64%1.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%1.70
No
48%2.04
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.25 + 1.18 = 2.43
Over 1.5
75%1.26
Over 2.5
47%1.88
Over 3.5
24%3.20
Under 1.5
25%3.55
Under 2.5
53%1.91
Under 3.5
76%1.30
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.8 + 4.9 = 9.6
Over 8.5
57%1.32
Over 9.5
46%1.60
Over 10.5
33%1.96
Under 8.5
43%3.04
Under 9.5
54%2.15
Under 10.5
67%1.77
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.3 + 2.4 = 4.7
Over 3.5
63%1.38
Over 4.5
42%1.91
Under 3.5
37%2.80
Under 4.5
58%1.80

Match Events

13'A. Veliz(Penalty)
19'Giovanni AugustoAssist: Yago Felipe
42'KauanOG
46'K. Ramirez INTulio out
46'Heitor INEverton out
46'Bruno Matias INF. Rossi out
48'MarcinhoAssist: Giovanni Augusto
65'Nicolas AcevedoAssist: Jean Lucas
66'R. Gomez INCaio Alexandre out
66'Jean Lucas INErick out
67'Kaue Junior INM. Sanabria out
67'Luciano Juba INZe Guilherme out
71'TulioAssist: Giovanni Augusto
78'Yago Felipe INDavid Antunes out
78'Fernando INBruno Pacheco out
83'Rodrigo INMichel Araujo out
84'M. SanabriaHolding
89'Camilo ReijersFoul
90+2'Erick

Lineups

Chapecoense-sc
4-3-3Coach: Lacerda Rafael
Bahia
3-1-4-2Coach: Ceni Rogerio
Avg rating6.74
Avg rating6.73
Anderson6.998Anderson
Heitor5.35Heitor
Kauan6.021Kauan
Eduardo DomaC6.23E. Doma
Fernando6.212Fernando
Yago Felipe6.288Y. Felipe
Camilo6.927Camilo
Bruno Matias6.316B. Matias
Kevin Ramírez6.994K. Ramírez
Giovanni Augusto9.910G. Augusto
Marcinho7.37Marcinho
Ronaldo5.71Ronaldo
Román Gómez6.631R. Gómez
David Duarte6.333D. Duarte
Santiago Ramos Mingo7.021S. Ramos Mingo
Nicolás AcevedoC8.75N. Acevedo
Kauê Furquim6.557K. Furquim
Jean Lucas6.66J. Lucas
Luciano Juba6.246L. Juba
Rodrigo Nestor7.211R. Nestor
Alejo Véliz6.69A. Véliz
Erick Pulga7.316E. Pulga

Chapecoense-sc Substitutes

26Everton46'for Heitor6.5
9Tulio Eduardo Silva de Oliveira46'for K. Ramirez71'7.3
29Franco Rossi46'for Bruno Matias6.5
91Bruno Pacheco78'for Fernando6.9
19David Antunes78'for Yago Felipe6.6
30Matheus
6Mancha
25Victor Caetano
15Rafael Thyere
70Rubens Tadeu
97Ênio
18Neto Pessoa

Bahia Substitutes

8Caio Alexandre66'for R. Gomez6.5
14Erick66'for Jean Lucas90+2'6.5
66José Guilherme67'for Luciano Juba6.7
23Mateo Sanabria67'for Kaue Junior84'6.7
15Michel Araújo83'for Rodrigo6.6
17Guido Herrera
4Kanu
3Marco Moreno
44Marcos Victor
99Cristian Olivera
27Everaldo
12Willian José

Match Stats

Chapecoense-scBahia
35%Ball Possession65%
3Corner Kicks5
1Yellow Cards2
12Total Shots19
3Shots on Goal4
4Shots off Goal11
9Shots Inside Box12
3Shots Outside Box7
5Blocked Shots4
16Fouls9
2Offsides0
3Goalkeeper Saves0
283Total Passes555
228Passes Accurate506
81%Pass Accuracy91%

Team Comparison

Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc
BahiaBahia
1506Elo Rating 1713
0.80Attack 1.56
0.85Defense 1.04
19%Hit Rate 37%
10.9Shots per Game 13.1
3.3Shots on Target 3.2
4.1Corners per Game 6.6
2.1Cards per Game 2.2

AI Insights

📉Home Underperforming
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
BahiaBahia
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.1 vs 0.5 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 5 meetings, all competitions

Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc2Wins · 40%
Draws00%
BahiaBahia3Wins · 60%
2.4Avg Goals
20%Both teams scored1 of 5
40%3+ goals2 of 5

Previous meetings

Serie A18/07/2026
BahiaChapecoense-sc
20
Serie B01/10/2022
Chapecoense-scBahia
31
Serie B15/06/2022
BahiaChapecoense-sc
01
Serie A25/10/2021
BahiaChapecoense-sc
30
Serie A04/07/2021
Chapecoense-scBahia
02

Recent Form

BahiaBahia
2W5D3L
09/08/2026
BahiaVasco DA Gama
00
D
30/07/2026
FluminenseBahia
00
D
26/07/2026
BahiaCorinthians
11
D
22/07/2026
Atletico-MGBahia
11
D
18/07/2026
BahiaChapecoense-sc
20
W
12/07/2026
FluminenseBahia
20
L
30/05/2026
BahiaBotafogo
21
W
26/05/2026
CoritibaBahia
32
L
17/05/2026
BahiaGremio
11
D
14/05/2026
RemoBahia
21
L

Referee Profile

Daiane Caroline Muniz Dos Santos35 matches

4.58Cards per match
4.42Yellow cards per match
0.17Red cards per match
24.6Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Daiane Caroline Muniz Dos Santos4.58
Other referees4.86

4.58 cards a match, 0.28 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.86).

Cards come from 24 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FlamengoFlamengo34237471:29+4276WWWWW
2PalmeirasPalmeiras342110362:23+3973WDWWW
3CruzeiroCruzeiro341861055:48+760WWWWL
4FluminenseFluminense34169955:42+1357WWLLL
5Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense341591051:43+854LLDLW
6BahiaBahia341411950:45+553LWDLW
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG341481244:40+450LLLWW
8RB BragantinoRB Bragantino341381344:39+547WWLDW
9SantosSantos3412111150:49+147LDDWL
10Sao PauloSao Paulo341281439:39044DLDWW
11BotafogoBotafogo341191446:53-742WLLWD
12CoritibaCoritiba341191440:51-1142LWLLD
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama331181443:50-741WLWLD
14MirassolMirassol3410101439:48-940WLDWL
15VitoriaVitoria341081635:51-1638LLDDL
16InternacionalInternacional349111438:42-438WLWLD
17CorinthiansCorinthians349101536:42-637DWLDL
18GremioGremio349101538:47-937LWWLD
19RemoRemo346111737:57-2029LWLDD
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc33492033:68-3521LLWLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FlamengoFlamengo3471:2976
2PalmeirasPalmeiras3462:2373
3CruzeiroCruzeiro3455:4860
4FluminenseFluminense3455:4257
5Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense3451:4354
6BahiaBahia3450:4553
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG3444:4050
8RB BragantinoRB Bragantino3444:3947
9SantosSantos3450:4947
10Sao PauloSao Paulo3439:3944
11BotafogoBotafogo3446:5342
12CoritibaCoritiba3440:5142
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama3343:5041
14MirassolMirassol3439:4840
15VitoriaVitoria3435:5138
16InternacionalInternacional3438:4238
17CorinthiansCorinthians3436:4237
18GremioGremio3438:4737
19RemoRemo3437:5729
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc3333:6821
PromotionRelegation

About the Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia forecast

The forecasts for this Serie A match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Chapecoense-sc and Bahia in the Serie A table

In the Serie A table, Bahia are 6th and Chapecoense-sc 20th, 32 points apart. League goal record so far: Chapecoense-sc 33-68, Bahia 50-45. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.