Flamengo vs Fluminense Prediction

Flamengo
1-0
Finished
HT 0-0
Fluminense
Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro·Rafael Rodrigo Klein 11/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.9 / 10
AI Best Pick
65%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.48
SignalSOLIDModel73%SurpriseHighGap-2.7%
Flamengo Rest
2 days
Fluminense Rest
2 days

Flamengo vs Fluminense: result, form and history

Flamengo beat Fluminense 1-0 in the Serie A on 11 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Meetings between them tend to be tight, with just 1.6 goals a game across 10 matches. Flamengo tend to win more corners, 6.6 a game to 3.5 for Fluminense.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
65%1.48
X
22%4.32
2
13%6.50
Double Chance
1X
87%1.11
X2
35%2.58
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%1.86
No
49%1.85
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.9 + 0.95 = 2.85
Over 1.5
78%1.22
Over 2.5
54%1.78
Over 3.5
33%2.90
Under 1.5
22%3.95
Under 2.5
46%2.02
Under 3.5
67%1.36
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.6 + 3 = 9.6
Over 8.5
60%1.36
Over 9.5
48%1.63
Over 10.5
36%2.04
Under 8.5
40%2.75
Under 9.5
52%2.09
Under 10.5
64%1.68
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.1 + 2.9 = 5
Over 3.5
73%1.19
Over 4.5
55%1.40
Under 3.5
27%4.30
Under 4.5
45%2.80

Match Events

31'Erick PulgarFoul
39'Luciano AcostaFoul
49'Saúl ÑíguezFoul
57'Agustín CanobbioFoul
60'Luciano Acosta INPaulo Henrique Chagas de Lima out
60'Yeferson Soteldo INKevin Serna out
64'Pedro INBruno Henrique out
64'Saúl Ñíguez INJoaquín Freitas out
65'Jorge CarrascalAssist: Lucas Paquetá
69'Rodrigo Castillo INHulk out
69'Agustín Canobbio INJefferson David Savarino Quintero out
78'Matheus Martinelli Lima INWesley Natã de Freitas Prado out
79'Samuel Lino INNicolas De la Cruz out
79'Lucas Paquetá INGonzalo Plata out
83'Ignácio da Silva OliveiraFoul
87'Guilherme AranaDissent
90'Jorge Carrascal INDanilo Luiz da Silva out
90+5'Joaquín FreitasTime wasting

Lineups

Flamengo
4-2-3-1Coach: Leonardo Jardim
Fluminense
4-2-3-1Coach: Marcão
Avg rating7.06
Avg rating6.65
A. Rossi7.01A. Rossi
G. Varela7.22G. Varela
Léo Ortiz7.63L. Ortiz
Léo Pereira7.54L. Pereira
Alex Sandro7.426A. Sandro
E. Pulgar7.25E. Pulgar
Saúl6.78Saúl
J. Carrascal8.215J. Carrascal
Lucas Paquetá7.711L. Paquetá
Samuel Lino6.916S. Lino
Pedro6.29Pedro
Fábio7.91Fábio
Samuel Xavier6.62S. Xavier
Ignacio6.04Ignacio
J. Millán7.129J. Millán
Guilherme Arana6.113G. Arana
Nonato6.516Nonato
Martinelli7.28Martinelli
A. Canobbio6.217A. Canobbio
L. Acosta7.032L. Acosta
Y. Soteldo6.730Y. Soteldo
R. Castillo6.819R. Castillo

Flamengo Substitutes

22Emerson Royal
30J. Freitas64'for Saúl Ñíguez90+5'6.4
77Johnny Góes
27Bruno Henrique64'for Pedro6.5
19G. Plata79'for Lucas Paquetá6.6
14A. Valencia
44Vitão
42Andrew
13Danilo90'for Jorge Carrascal
7Luiz Araújo
18N. de la Cruz79'for Samuel Lino6.9
49Dyogo

Fluminense Substitutes

3Thiago Silva
22J. Freytes
94Otávio
35Hércules
21Igor Rabello
23Guga
11J. Savarino69'for Agustín Canobbio6.4
90K. Serna60'for Yeferson Soteldo6.3
7Hulk69'for Rodrigo Castillo6.4
34Wesley Nata78'for Matheus Martinelli Lima6.3
98Vitor Eudes
10PH Ganso60'for Luciano Acosta7.0

Match Stats

FlamengoFluminense
43%Ball Possession57%
4Corner Kicks2
3Yellow Cards4
17Total Shots11
6Shots on Goal3
7Shots off Goal4
8Shots Inside Box6
9Shots Outside Box5
4Blocked Shots4
21Fouls18
3Goalkeeper Saves5
426Total Passes559
379Passes Accurate498
89%Pass Accuracy89%

Team Comparison

FlamengoFlamengo
FluminenseFluminense
1919Elo Rating 1718
1.62Attack 1.58
2.53Defense 1.67
61%Hit Rate 31%
13.7Shots per Game 11.9
7.1Shots on Target 4.3
6.6Corners per Game 3.5
3.1Cards per Game 2.3

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+201 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy2.85 goals
📈BTTS Trend40% in H2H
🔥Derby Match
📉Home Underperforming
⚠️Home Rotation Risk90%
⚠️Away Rotation Risk90%

Game State Tendencies

FlamengoFlamengo
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.1 vs 0.5 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
FluminenseFluminense
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1 vs 0.6 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

FlamengoFlamengo4Wins · 40%
Draws330%
FluminenseFluminense3Wins · 30%
1.6Avg Goals
40%Both teams scored4 of 10
40%3+ goals4 of 10

Previous meetings

Serie A12/04/2026
FluminenseFlamengo
12
Carioca - 108/03/2026
FluminenseFlamengo
4050
Carioca - 125/01/2026
FluminenseFlamengo
21
Serie A20/11/2025
FluminenseFlamengo
21
Serie A21/07/2025
FlamengoFluminense
10
Carioca - 116/03/2025
FlamengoFluminense
00
Carioca - 113/03/2025
FluminenseFlamengo
12
Carioca - 108/02/2025
FluminenseFlamengo
00
Serie A18/10/2024
FlamengoFluminense
02
Serie A23/06/2024
FluminenseFlamengo
01

Referee Profile

Rafael Rodrigo Klein202 matches

5.49Cards per match
5.16Yellow cards per match
0.33Red cards per match
28.1Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Rafael Rodrigo Klein5.49
Other referees5.24

5.49 cards a match, 0.25 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.24).

Cards come from 137 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FlamengoFlamengo31207461:25+3667WWDWW
2PalmeirasPalmeiras31199354:22+3266WWWDW
3Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense31158849:37+1253LWDWD
4CruzeiroCruzeiro311561050:46+451WLWWL
5FluminenseFluminense31149849:39+1051LLWWL
6Atletico-MGAtletico-MG31148942:35+750WWDWD
7BahiaBahia311310844:39+549LWLLW
8SantosSantos311291048:46+245WLDWW
9Sao PauloSao Paulo311261336:35+142WWLLW
10RB BragantinoRB Bragantino311181239:36+341DWDLL
11BotafogoBotafogo311091244:48-439WDLLW
12CoritibaCoritiba311091238:49-1139LDLLD
13VitoriaVitoria311071434:45-1137DLWLD
14MirassolMirassol31991336:44-836WLDWD
15Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama30981336:43-735LDWWW
16CorinthiansCorinthians31891432:39-733DLLLL
17InternacionalInternacional317111333:40-732LDWLW
18GremioGremio317101434:44-1031LDDDL
19RemoRemo315111534:49-1526DDDLL
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc30391830:62-3218LLLDL
#TeamMPGPts
1FlamengoFlamengo3161:2567
2PalmeirasPalmeiras3154:2266
3Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense3149:3753
4CruzeiroCruzeiro3150:4651
5FluminenseFluminense3149:3951
6Atletico-MGAtletico-MG3142:3550
7BahiaBahia3144:3949
8SantosSantos3148:4645
9Sao PauloSao Paulo3136:3542
10RB BragantinoRB Bragantino3139:3641
11BotafogoBotafogo3144:4839
12CoritibaCoritiba3138:4939
13VitoriaVitoria3134:4537
14MirassolMirassol3136:4436
15Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama3036:4335
16CorinthiansCorinthians3132:3933
17InternacionalInternacional3133:4032
18GremioGremio3134:4431
19RemoRemo3134:4926
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc3030:6218
PromotionRelegation

About the Flamengo vs Fluminense forecast

As a derby, this Serie A meeting carries extra weight; the forecasts take that context into account alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Flamengo and Fluminense in the Serie A table

In the Serie A table, Flamengo are 1st and Fluminense 5th, 16 points apart. League goal record so far: Flamengo 61-25, Fluminense 49-39. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Fluminense have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.