Bayern München vs Arsenal Prediction
World · League Stage - 3
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
6.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
81%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.14
SignalSTRONGModel53%SurpriseMediumGap-6.3%
Bayern München Rest
4 days
Arsenal Rest
3 days
Bayern München vs Arsenal: the result in context
Bayern München and Arsenal drew 2-2 in the UEFA Champions League on 21 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
When these two meet, goals usually follow: 3.0 a game across 3 meetings, with both teams scoring in 2. Bayern München tend to win more corners, 9.0 a game to 5.4 for Arsenal.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
152%2.25
X23%3.77
225%3.04
Double Chance
1X74%1.37
X248%1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes58%1.50
No42%2.50
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.98 + 0.99 = 2.97
Over 1.581%1.14
Over 2.559%1.60
Over 3.537%2.42
Under 1.519%4.63
Under 2.541%2.38
Under 3.563%1.58
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.7 + 2.8 = 9.6
Over 8.558%1.55
Over 9.547%1.93
Over 10.537%2.47
Under 8.542%2.33
Under 9.553%1.82
Under 10.563%1.49
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.1 + 2.3 = 4.4
Over 3.564%1.94
Over 4.545%3.12
Under 3.536%1.81
Under 4.555%1.34
Match Events
10'Bukayo Saka INEberechi Eze out
13'Kai HavertzFoul
25'Eberechi EzeAssist: Martin Odegaard
26'Goal confirmedEberechi Eze
35'Alphonso DaviesAssist: Harry Kane
39'Ezri Konsa Foul
45'Kim Min-Jae INJonathan Tah out
61'Harry Kane(Penalty)
68'Ismael Saibari INLuis Díaz out
68'Serge Gnabry INLennart Karl out
68'Kai Havertz INViktor Gyökeres out
69'Bruno Guimarães INMyles Lewis-Skelly out
82'Declan RiceAssist: Viktor Gyökeres
85'Alphonso Davies INNathaniel Brown out
85'Martin Odegaard INMikel Merino out
90'Luis Díaz INBara Sapoko Ndiaye out
Lineups
Bayern MünchenArsenal
4-3-3Coach: Mikel ArtetaAvg ratingAvg rating
1M. Neuer
27K. Laimer
2D. Upamecano
3K. Min-Jae
44J. Stanišić
8T. Bischof
45A. Pavlović
7S. Gnabry
34I. Saibari
19A. Davies
9H. Kane
1D. Raya
12J. Timber
15E. Konsa
6G. Magalhães
33R. Calafiori
8M. Ødegaard
39B. Guimarães
41D. Rice
7B. Saka
29K. Havertz
20N. MaduekeBayern München Substitutes
39Bara Ndiaye90'replaced by Luis Díaz
23S. Boey
46T. Binder
42L. Karl68'for Serge Gnabry
21H. Ito
4J. Tah45'for Kim Min-Jae
14L. Díaz68'for Ismael Saibari90'for Bara Sapoko Ndiaye
26S. Ulreich
40J. Urbig
11N. Brown85'for Alphonso Davies
Arsenal Substitutes
56M. Dowman
10E. Eze10'for Bukayo Saka25'
14V. Gyökeres68'for Kai Havertz
49M. Lewis-Skelly69'for Bruno Guimarães
23Mikel Merino85'for Martin Odegaard
30I. Meslier
3Cristhian Mosquera
4B. White
36Martín Zubimendi
13Kepa
Match Stats
Bayern MünchenArsenal 42%Ball Possession58%
3Corner Kicks5
0Yellow Cards2
13Total Shots14
5Shots on Goal5
3Shots off Goal4
10Shots Inside Box9
3Shots Outside Box5
5Blocked Shots5
15Fouls6
2Offsides1
3Goalkeeper Saves3
433Total Passes502
372Passes Accurate437
5Free Kicks15
Team Comparison
Bayern MünchenArsenal2091Elo Rating 2038
3.82Attack 1.68
1.32Defense 1.87
37%Hit Rate 59%
23.2Shots per Game 12.7
10.6Shots on Target 4.4
9.0Corners per Game 5.4
1.3Cards per Game 1.5
AI Insights
⚽High Goal Expectancy2.97 goals
📈BTTS Trend67% in H2H
Game State Tendencies
Bayern München- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (2.4 vs 1.4 in first half)
Arsenal- Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
- Scores more in 2nd half (1.4 vs 0.3 in first half)
Head to Head
Last 3 meetings, all competitions
Bayern München1Wins · 34%Draws133%
Arsenal1Wins · 33%
1Wins · 33%3.0Avg Goals
67%Both teams scored2 of 3
67%3+ goals2 of 3
Previous meetings
26/11/2025ArsenalBayern München31
17/04/2024Bayern MunichArsenal10
09/04/2024ArsenalBayern Munich22
Recent Form
Bayern München7W3D0L
17/10/2026Bayern München
RB Leipzig
VikingBayern München
FC AugsburgBayern MünchenBayern München
Union Berlin
SV ElversbergBayern MünchenBayern München
Bodo/GlimtBayern München
VfB Stuttgart
Bayern MünchenRB Leipzig61
W13/10/2026VikingBayern München33
D10/10/2026FC AugsburgBayern München22
D18/09/2026Bayern MünchenUnion Berlin70
W13/09/2026SV ElversbergBayern München12
W10/09/2026Bayern MünchenBodo/Glimt50
W05/09/2026
FC Schalke 04Bayern München
FC Schalke 04Bayern München00
D02/09/2026
VfL OsnabrückBayern München
28/08/2026VfL OsnabrückBayern München14
WBayern MünchenVfB Stuttgart51
W22/08/2026
Borussia DortmundBayern München
Borussia DortmundBayern München12
W
Referee Profile
4.78Cards per match
4.57Yellow cards per match
0.21Red cards per match
25.3Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
4.78 cards a match, 0.36 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.42).
Cards come from 211 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14:5 | +9 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  Aston Villa | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:3 | +9 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 |  Liverpool | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:7 | +5 | 9 | WWW |
| 4 |  Real Madrid | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10:5 | +5 | 9 | WWW |
| 5 |  Real Betis | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7:4 | +3 | 9 | WWW |
| 6 | VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7:2 | +5 | 7 | DWW |
| 7 | Arsenal | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6:2 | +4 | 7 | DWW |
| 8 |  Barcelona | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11:6 | +5 | 6 | LWW |
| 9 |  Como | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10:5 | +5 | 6 | WLW |
| 10 |  Manchester City | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9:5 | +4 | 6 | WLW |
| 11 |  Club Brugge KV | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9:6 | +3 | 6 | WWL |
| 12 |  Sporting CP | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7:4 | +3 | 6 | LWW |
| 13 | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:4 | +1 | 6 | WLW |
| 14 | Bayern München | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10:5 | +5 | 5 | DDW |
| 15 |  AS Roma | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8:5 | +3 | 4 | WLD |
| 16 |  Atletico Madrid | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:3 | +1 | 4 | DWL |
| 17 |  Shakhtar Donetsk | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:3 | +1 | 4 | LWD |
| 18 |  PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2:2 | 0 | 4 | WLD |
| 19 |  Villarreal | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8:8 | 0 | 3 | LWL |
| 20 |  Manchester United | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:6 | -1 | 3 | LLW |
| 21 |  Inter | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:6 | -1 | 3 | WLL |
| 22 |  Napoli | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:7 | -2 | 3 | WLL |
| 23 |  Galatasaray | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6:9 | -3 | 3 | WLL |
| 24 |  Lask Linz | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6:9 | -3 | 3 | WLL |
| 25 |  Sabah FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:6 | -3 | 3 | LWL |
| 26 |  Feyenoord | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:8 | -4 | 3 | LWL |
| 27 |  Lens | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:7 | -4 | 3 | LLW |
| 28 | Bodo/Glimt | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:9 | -5 | 3 | LWL |
| 29 |  AEK Athens FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:8 | -5 | 3 | LLW |
| 30 | RB Leipzig | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:8 | -5 | 3 | LWL |
| 31 |  Fenerbahçe | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3:9 | -6 | 2 | DLD |
| 32 |  Slavia Praha | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4:7 | -3 | 1 | DLL |
| 33 | Viking | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5:9 | -4 | 1 | LDL |
| 34 |  FC Porto | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2:6 | -4 | 0 | LLL |
| 35 |  Lille | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4:10 | -6 | 0 | LLL |
| 36 |  Slovan Bratislava | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1:13 | -12 | 0 | LLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 3 | 14:5 | 9 |
| 2 | Aston Villa | 3 | 12:3 | 9 |
| 3 | Liverpool | 3 | 12:7 | 9 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 3 | 10:5 | 9 |
| 5 | Real Betis | 3 | 7:4 | 9 |
| 6 | VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 7:2 | 7 |
| 7 | Arsenal | 3 | 6:2 | 7 |
| 8 | Barcelona | 3 | 11:6 | 6 |
| 9 | Como | 3 | 10:5 | 6 |
| 10 | Manchester City | 3 | 9:5 | 6 |
| 11 | Club Brugge KV | 3 | 9:6 | 6 |
| 12 | Sporting CP | 3 | 7:4 | 6 |
| 13 | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 5:4 | 6 |
| 14 | Bayern München | 3 | 10:5 | 5 |
| 15 | AS Roma | 3 | 8:5 | 4 |
| 16 | Atletico Madrid | 3 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 17 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 3 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 18 | PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 2:2 | 4 |
| 19 | Villarreal | 3 | 8:8 | 3 |
| 20 | Manchester United | 3 | 5:6 | 3 |
| 21 | Inter | 3 | 5:6 | 3 |
| 22 | Napoli | 3 | 5:7 | 3 |
| 23 | Galatasaray | 3 | 6:9 | 3 |
| 24 | Lask Linz | 3 | 6:9 | 3 |
| 25 | Sabah FC | 3 | 3:6 | 3 |
| 26 | Feyenoord | 3 | 4:8 | 3 |
| 27 | Lens | 3 | 3:7 | 3 |
| 28 | Bodo/Glimt | 3 | 4:9 | 3 |
| 29 | AEK Athens FC | 3 | 3:8 | 3 |
| 30 | RB Leipzig | 3 | 3:8 | 3 |
| 31 | Fenerbahçe | 3 | 3:9 | 2 |
| 32 | Slavia Praha | 3 | 4:7 | 1 |
| 33 | Viking | 3 | 5:9 | 1 |
| 34 | FC Porto | 3 | 2:6 | 0 |
| 35 | Lille | 3 | 4:10 | 0 |
| 36 | Slovan Bratislava | 3 | 1:13 | 0 |
Champions League
Bracket
Qualifying Round 1
Qualifying Round 2
Qualifying Round 3
Play-offs
VikingAEK Athens FC
CelticLask Linz
Union St. GilloiseBodo/Glimt
Olympiakos Piraeus
NEC Nijmegen
Sparta Praha
LyonSlovan Bratislava
Mjallby AIF
Aarhus
Lech PoznanFenerbahçe
Gornik Zabrze
FC Thun
Dinamo Zagreb
Sturm Graz
Heart Of Midlothian
FK Crvena Zvezda
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Omonia Nicosia
CeljeVikingAEK Athens FCCelticLask LinzUnion St. GilloiseBodo/GlimtOlympiakos PiraeusNEC NijmegenSparta PrahaLyonVikingAEK Athens FCCelticLask LinzVikingAEK Athens FCCelticLask LinzUnion St. GilloiseBodo/GlimtOlympiakos PiraeusNEC NijmegenSparta PrahaLyonSlovan BratislavaMjallby AIFAarhusLech PoznanFenerbahçeGornik ZabrzeFC ThunDinamo ZagrebSturm GrazHeart Of MidlothianFK Crvena ZvezdaHapoel Beer ShevaOmonia NicosiaCeljeExplore more predictions
This match
About the Bayern München vs Arsenal forecast
This is a UEFA Champions League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Bayern München and Arsenal in the UEFA Champions League table
In the UEFA Champions League table, Arsenal are 7th and Bayern München 14th, 2 points apart. League goal record so far: Bayern München 10-5, Arsenal 6-2. The full standings are on the UEFA Champions League Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.