Emelec vs Aucas Prediction
Ecuador · Regular Season - 23
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.2 / 10
Value Analysis
70%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.43
SignalGOODModel34%SurpriseMediumGap+5.2%
Emelec Rest
5 days
Aucas Rest
6 days
Match Forecasts
Match Result
139%2.18
X28%3.08
233%3.30
Double Chance
1X67%1.29
X261%1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes56%2.00
No44%1.71
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.31 + 1.23 = 2.54
Over 1.570%1.43
Over 2.547%2.35
Over 3.527%4.35
Under 1.530%2.62
Under 2.553%1.54
Under 3.573%1.18
Corners
Corner forecasts not available for this match
Cards
Card forecasts not available for this match
Match Events
30'A. MinaFoul
37'E. PreciadoAssist: A. Mena
52'L. ArroyoFoul
56'J. Cevallos ING. Napoli out
56'A. Mina INF. Pizzini out
60'L. Fragozo INJ. Ayovi out
78'L. Klimowicz INA. Viteri out
79'A. Mena INS. Tapiero out
79'L. Arroyo INA. Garcia out
80'E. PreciadoAssist: P. Guzman
85'A. LeguizamonFoul
86'E. Preciado INR. Bolanos out
86'M. Vera IND. S. Espinosa out
Lineups
EmelecAucas
4-1-4-1Coach: Norberto AraujoAvg ratingAvg rating
1M. Valero
80O. Herrera
C2A. Leguizamón
4E. Segura
3I. Guerrico
16S. Quintero
19J. Ruiz Gómez
5A. Mina
21J. Cevallos
15L. Fragozo
7L. Klimowicz
C13H. Piedra
37A. Zova
16L. Gustavino
2S. Morales
28E. Quiñónez
6A. Spina
57M. Vera
21P. Guzmán
18A. Mena
10A. Preciado
29L. ArroyoEmelec Substitutes
22Ezequiel Castañeda
51Stalin Valencia
25Rafael Narváez
18Mathias Carabalí
27Luis Fernando León
6Víctor Griffith
28Tobar Bolivar
8Gonzalo Nápoli56'for J. Cevallos
10Francisco Pizzini56'for A. Mina
17Jaime Ayoví60'for L. Fragozo
24Andrés Viteri
Aucas Substitutes
1Iván Chaves
63Ariel García79'for L. Arroyo
31Byron Carabalí
14Stiven Tapiero79'for A. Mena
5Thiago Serpa
20Diego Espinosa86'for M. Vera
11Alexander Bolaños
Match Stats
EmelecAucas 55%Ball Possession45%
4Corner Kicks3
2Yellow Cards1
8Total Shots9
3Shots on Goal5
4Shots off Goal3
6Shots Inside Box6
2Shots Outside Box3
1Blocked Shots1
14Fouls13
2Offsides0
5Goalkeeper Saves3
416Total Passes349
306Passes Accurate249
74%Pass Accuracy71%
Team Comparison
EmelecAucas1471Elo Rating 1560
1.06Attack 1.04
1.26Defense 1.01
19%Hit Rate 27%
19.0Shots per Game 10.7
4.8Shots on Target 2.9
5.0Corners per Game 4.7
3.4Cards per Game 1.7
AI Insights
📉Home Underperforming
Game State Tendencies
Emelec- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Aucas- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
Emelec1Wins · 10%Draws440%
Aucas5Wins · 50%
5Wins · 50%1.7Avg Goals
40%Both teams scored4 of 10
30%3+ goals3 of 10
Previous meetings
13/04/2026AucasEmelec20
23/11/2025EmelecAucas02
19/10/2025AucasEmelec00
31/08/2025AucasEmelec12
12/05/2025EmelecAucas01
07/10/2024EmelecAucas00
19/04/2024AucasEmelec31
03/09/2023EmelecAucas00
10/04/2023AucasEmelec21
11/09/2022AucasEmelec11
Recent Form
Emelec2W5D3L
28/07/2026
Deportivo CuencaEmelecEmelec
Mushuc Runa SC
Orense SCEmelecEmelec
Barcelona SC
Delfin SCEmelec
Deportivo CuencaEmelec21
L24/07/2026EmelecMushuc Runa SC11
D20/07/2026
Independiente del ValleEmelec
17/07/2026Independiente del ValleEmelec61
LOrense SCEmelec02
W13/07/2026EmelecBarcelona SC00
D06/07/2026Delfin SCEmelec11
D01/06/2026Emelec
Universidad Catolica
EmelecUniversidad Catolica10
W20/05/2026
Daquilema FCEmelec
Daquilema FCEmelec10090
L18/05/2026
Manta FCEmelec
Manta FCEmelec00
D10/05/2026Emelec
Libertad
EmelecLibertad11
DAucas5W1D4L
26/07/2026Aucas
Macara
23/07/2026AucasMacara14
LOrense SCAucas21
L19/07/2026
Tecnico UniversitarioAucas01
W16/07/2026AucasIndependiente del Valle03
L12/07/2026Deportivo CuencaAucas01
W08/07/2026Aucas
Guayaquil City FC
AucasGuayaquil City FC10
W31/05/2026Mushuc Runa SCAucas
Mushuc Runa SCAucas00
D26/05/2026AucasManta FC
AucasManta FC31
W21/05/2026
San AntonioAucas
San AntonioAucas03
W17/05/2026Barcelona SCAucas
Barcelona SCAucas30
LReferee Profile
5.11Cards per match
4.70Yellow cards per match
0.41Red cards per match
24.9Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
5.11 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.02).
Cards come from 70 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
Liga Pro: Regular season
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 73:33 | +40 | 74 | WWDLW |
| 2 | Universidad Catolica | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 51:27 | +24 | 51 | DLDWL |
| 3 | Macara | 30 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 41:33 | +8 | 51 | DWWWW |
| 4 | Aucas | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 33:28 | +5 | 50 | LWLDL |
| 5 |  LDU de Quito | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 31:24 | +7 | 46 | DLLDW |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 32:25 | +7 | 44 | DLWLL |
| 7 | Libertad | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 33:34 | -1 | 41 | LDLWW |
| 8 |  Leones del Norte | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 31:32 | -1 | 39 | DWWLL |
| 9 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 33:36 | -3 | 39 | DDWLW |
| 10 | Emelec | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 25:34 | -9 | 39 | WLLWL |
| 11 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 35:38 | -3 | 38 | WLLDL |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 25:37 | -12 | 36 | WLWWD |
| 13 | Orense SC | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 36:47 | -11 | 33 | LDWDD |
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 30 | 10 | 2 | 18 | 28:42 | -14 | 32 | DWLLD |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 19:31 | -12 | 28 | LWLWW |
| 16 | Manta FC | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 17:42 | -25 | 21 | WLLWW |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 73:33 | 74 |
| 2 | Universidad Catolica | 30 | 51:27 | 51 |
| 3 | Macara | 30 | 41:33 | 51 |
| 4 | Aucas | 30 | 33:28 | 50 |
| 5 | LDU de Quito | 30 | 31:24 | 46 |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 32:25 | 44 |
| 7 | Libertad | 30 | 33:34 | 41 |
| 8 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 31:32 | 39 |
| 9 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 33:36 | 39 |
| 10 | Emelec | 30 | 25:34 | 39 |
| 11 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 35:38 | 38 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 25:37 | 36 |
| 13 | Orense SC | 30 | 36:47 | 33 |
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 30 | 28:42 | 32 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 30 | 19:31 | 28 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 30 | 17:42 | 21 |
Liga Pro: Championship Group
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 35 | 27 | 3 | 5 | 81:37 | +44 | 84 | WWDLW |
| 2 | Macara | 36 | 20 | 7 | 9 | 52:37 | +15 | 67 | DWWWW |
| 3 | Universidad Catolica | 36 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 56:35 | +21 | 54 | DLDWL |
| 4 | LDU de Quito | 36 | 15 | 9 | 12 | 38:32 | +6 | 54 | DLLDW |
| 5 | Aucas | 36 | 15 | 9 | 12 | 40:42 | -2 | 54 | LWLDL |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 35 | 12 | 13 | 10 | 39:32 | +7 | 49 | DLWLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 35 | 81:37 | 84 |
| 2 | Macara | 36 | 52:37 | 67 |
| 3 | Universidad Catolica | 36 | 56:35 | 54 |
| 4 | LDU de Quito | 36 | 38:32 | 54 |
| 5 | Aucas | 36 | 40:42 | 54 |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 35 | 39:32 | 49 |
Liga Pro: Placement Group
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Libertad | 36 | 14 | 9 | 13 | 43:40 | +3 | 51 | LDLWW |
| 8 | Guayaquil City FC | 36 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 39:44 | -5 | 48 | DDWLW |
| 9 | Leones del Norte | 36 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 40:41 | -1 | 47 | DWWLL |
| 10 | Emelec | 36 | 12 | 9 | 15 | 32:43 | -11 | 45 | WLLWL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Libertad | 36 | 43:40 | 51 |
| 8 | Guayaquil City FC | 36 | 39:44 | 48 |
| 9 | Leones del Norte | 36 | 40:41 | 47 |
| 10 | Emelec | 36 | 32:43 | 45 |
PromotionRelegation
Explore more predictions
This match
More Liga Pro matches
- Deportivo Cuenca vs Emelec 28/07/26
- Libertad vs Orense SC 01/08/26
- Manta FC vs Mushuc Runa SC 01/08/26
- Universidad Catolica vs Tecnico Universitario 01/08/26
- Independiente del Valle vs Deportivo Cuenca 02/08/26
- Macara vs Guayaquil City FC 02/08/26
- Leones del Norte vs Barcelona SC 03/08/26
- LDU de Quito vs Independiente del Valle 08/08/26
About the Emelec vs Aucas forecast
The forecasts for this Liga Pro match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Emelec and Aucas in the Liga Pro table
In the Liga Pro table, Aucas are 4th and Emelec 10th, 11 points apart. League goal record so far: Emelec 25-34, Aucas 33-28. The full standings are on the Liga Pro Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.