FBC Melgar vs Alianza Lima Prediction
Peru · Clausura - 6
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
Value Analysis
75%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.40
SignalHIGHModel40%SurpriseMediumGap+8.9%
FBC Melgar Rest
8 days
Alianza Lima Rest
7 days
FBC Melgar vs Alianza Lima: the result in context
FBC Melgar and Alianza Lima drew 1-1 in the Primera División on 23 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Their history points to a close game: 10 previous meetings produced 2.0 goals a game.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
145%2.05
X28%3.00
227%3.70
Double Chance
1X72%1.24
X255%1.69
Both Teams to Score
Yes56%1.95
No44%1.76
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.3 + 1.16 = 2.46
Over 1.574%1.40
Over 2.545%2.27
Over 3.524%4.08
Under 1.526%2.75
Under 2.555%1.57
Under 3.576%1.20
Corners
Projected Corners: 5 + 4.5 = 9.5
Over 8.559%2.02
Over 9.547%2.59
Over 10.535%3.53
Under 8.541%1.71
Under 9.553%1.43
Under 10.565%1.23
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.1 + 2.6 = 4.7
Over 3.566%-
Over 4.543%1.69
Under 3.534%-
Under 4.557%2.02
Match Events
23'Esteban PavezFoul
33'Cristian BordacaharAssist: Nicolás Quagliata
45+2'Eryc CastilloAssist: Jesús Castillo
46'Jesús Castillo INFederico Girotti out
57'Walter TandazoFoul
66'Gaspar Gentile INPaolo Guerrero out
69'Cristian Bordacahar INJefferson Caceres out
78'Leonel GonzálezFoul
79'Eryc Castillo INChristian Neira out
79'Jairo Vélez INJean Pierre Archimbaud out
82'Juan EscobarFoul
83'Walter Tandazo INMarcos Portillo out
83'Jhonny Vidales INMatías Zegarra out
90'Nelson Cabanillas INLautaro Guzmán out
Lineups
FBC MelgarAlianza Lima
Coach: Pablo GuedeFBC Melgar Starting XI
21Jorge Cabezudo
33Matías Lazo
23Juan Escobar82'
3Leonel González78'
27Nelson Cabanillas90'replaced by Lautaro Guzmán
25Kevin Minda
24Walter Tandazo57'83'replaced by Marcos Portillo
7Cristian Bordacahar33'69'replaced by Jefferson Caceres
10Nicolás Quagliata
11Jhonny Vidales83'replaced by Matías Zegarra
9Bernardo CuestaC
Avg rating
Alianza Lima Starting XI
1Alejandro Duarte
17Luis Advíncula
6Renzo GarcésC
3Mateo Antoni
2Nicolás Díaz
5Esteban Pavez23'
7Fernando Gaibor
15Jesús Castillo46'replaced by Federico Girotti
25Gaspar Gentile66'replaced by Paolo Guerrero
8Eryc Castillo45+2'79'replaced by Christian Neira
20Jairo Vélez79'replaced by Jean Pierre Archimbaud
Avg rating
FBC Melgar Substitutes
16Jefferson Caceres69'for Cristian Bordacahar
26Marcos Portillo83'for Walter Tandazo
45Matías Zegarra83'for Jhonny Vidales
8Lautaro Guzmán90'for Nelson Cabanillas
12Carlos Cáceda
5Alec Deneumostier
77Franco Zanelatto
80Jhamir D'Arrigo
66Horacio Orzan
Alianza Lima Substitutes
99Federico Girotti46'for Jesús Castillo
34Paolo Guerrero66'for Gaspar Gentile
29Jean Pierre Archimbaud79'for Jairo Vélez
22Christian Neira79'for Eryc Castillo
12Ángel de la Cruz
77Josué Estrada
4Gianfranco Chávez
31Cristian Carbajal
11Alan Cantero
Match Stats
FBC MelgarAlianza Lima 53%Ball Possession47%
3Corner Kicks2
3Yellow Cards1
13Total Shots15
6Shots on Goal8
6Shots off Goal3
8Shots Inside Box6
5Shots Outside Box9
1Blocked Shots4
12Fouls8
3Offsides0
7Goalkeeper Saves3
452Total Passes406
377Passes Accurate324
83%Pass Accuracy80%
Team Comparison
FBC MelgarAlianza Lima1665Elo Rating 1716
1.56Attack 1.70
1.42Defense 2.01
36%Hit Rate 77%
12.9Shots per Game 16.5
4.7Shots on Target 5.7
4.5Corners per Game 6.1
2.6Cards per Game 2.5
AI Insights
📈BTTS Trend40% in H2H
Game State Tendencies
FBC Melgar- Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Concedes more in 2nd half and can tire late
Alianza Lima- Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
FBC Melgar3Wins · 30%Draws330%
Alianza Lima4Wins · 40%
4Wins · 40%2.0Avg Goals
40%Both teams scored4 of 10
30%3+ goals3 of 10
Previous meetings
10/03/2026Alianza LimaFBC Melgar31
01/11/2025Alianza LimaFBC Melgar22
29/06/2025FBC MelgarAlianza Lima01
29/09/2024Alianza LimaFBC Melgar11
29/04/2024FBC MelgarAlianza Lima10
29/09/2023Alianza LimaFBC Melgar00
20/05/2023FBC MelgarAlianza Lima21
13/11/2022Alianza LimaFBC Melgar20
09/11/2022FBC MelgarAlianza Lima10
22/09/2022Alianza LimaFBC Melgar20
Recent Form
FBC Melgar4W4D2L
15/08/2026
Club Deportivo Los ChankasFBC MelgarFBC Melgar
FC Cajamarca
UCV MoqueguaFBC MelgarFBC Melgar
Sporting Cristal
CiencianoFBC MelgarFBC MelgarUCV Moquegua
Club Deportivo Los ChankasFBC Melgar03
W09/08/2026FBC MelgarFC Cajamarca24
L02/08/2026UCV MoqueguaFBC Melgar00
D26/07/2026FBC MelgarSporting Cristal21
W18/07/2026CiencianoFBC Melgar13
W29/06/2026FBC MelgarUCV Moquegua00
D18/06/2026
LDU de QuitoFBC Melgar
LDU de QuitoFBC Melgar00
D12/06/2026
Tacna HeroicaFBC Melgar
Tacna HeroicaFBC Melgar32
L31/05/2026FBC Melgar
Alianza Atletico
FBC MelgarAlianza Atletico31
W22/05/2026
Juan Pablo II CollegeFBC Melgar
Juan Pablo II CollegeFBC Melgar11
DAlianza Lima4W4D2L
16/08/2026Alianza Lima
UTC Cajamarca
09/08/2026Alianza LimaUTC Cajamarca10
W
Sport BoysAlianza Lima11
D02/08/2026Alianza LimaAlianza Atletico31
W26/07/2026
Comerciantes UnidosAlianza Lima22
D20/07/2026Alianza Lima
Sport Huancayo21
W28/06/2026Alianza LimaAlianza Atletico
Alianza LimaAlianza Atletico12
L21/06/2026
Carlos A. MannucciAlianza Lima
Carlos A. MannucciAlianza Lima31
L14/06/2026
Cesar VallejoAlianza Lima
Cesar VallejoAlianza Lima00
D31/05/2026FC CajamarcaAlianza Lima
FC CajamarcaAlianza Lima11
D24/05/2026Alianza LimaClub Deportivo Los Chankas
Alianza LimaClub Deportivo Los Chankas30
WReferee Profile
4.84Cards per match
4.47Yellow cards per match
0.38Red cards per match
24.5Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
4.84 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.07).
Cards come from 32 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
Primera Division: Tabla Anual
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 33 | 20 | 9 | 4 | 54:24 | +30 | 69 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Universitario | 33 | 17 | 10 | 6 | 59:39 | +20 | 61 | DLDWL |
| 3 | FBC Melgar | 33 | 16 | 9 | 8 | 56:38 | +18 | 57 | DWDWL |
| 4 |  Deportivo Garcilaso | 33 | 16 | 7 | 10 | 50:35 | +15 | 55 | DWWWW |
| 5 | Sporting Cristal | 33 | 15 | 6 | 12 | 63:48 | +15 | 51 | WLDDL |
| 6 |  Cusco | 33 | 16 | 3 | 14 | 46:47 | -1 | 51 | WLDDW |
| 7 | Cienciano | 33 | 15 | 5 | 13 | 54:46 | +8 | 50 | DLWWD |
| 8 | Sport Huancayo | 33 | 15 | 5 | 13 | 48:49 | -1 | 50 | DLWLL |
| 9 | Alianza Atletico | 33 | 14 | 7 | 12 | 49:48 | +1 | 49 | DWLWW |
| 10 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 33 | 13 | 9 | 11 | 40:52 | -12 | 48 | LWDLL |
| 11 | Sport Boys | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 37:35 | +2 | 42 | DWDLD |
| 12 | Juan Pablo II College | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 48:59 | -11 | 41 | DLLLD |
| 13 | Comerciantes Unidos | 33 | 8 | 13 | 12 | 44:47 | -3 | 37 | DLDLW |
| 14 |  Atletico Grau | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 32:41 | -9 | 37 | LWLLL |
| 15 |  ADT | 33 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 36:48 | -12 | 31 | LWDWW |
| 16 | UCV Moquegua | 33 | 7 | 9 | 17 | 27:48 | -21 | 30 | DLDLW |
| 17 | FC Cajamarca | 33 | 8 | 7 | 18 | 46:65 | -19 | 29 | DWWWL |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 33 | 5 | 9 | 19 | 38:58 | -20 | 14 | DLLLD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 33 | 54:24 | 69 |
| 2 | Universitario | 33 | 59:39 | 61 |
| 3 | FBC Melgar | 33 | 56:38 | 57 |
| 4 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 33 | 50:35 | 55 |
| 5 | Sporting Cristal | 33 | 63:48 | 51 |
| 6 | Cusco | 33 | 46:47 | 51 |
| 7 | Cienciano | 33 | 54:46 | 50 |
| 8 | Sport Huancayo | 33 | 48:49 | 50 |
| 9 | Alianza Atletico | 33 | 49:48 | 49 |
| 10 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 33 | 40:52 | 48 |
| 11 | Sport Boys | 33 | 37:35 | 42 |
| 12 | Juan Pablo II College | 33 | 48:59 | 41 |
| 13 | Comerciantes Unidos | 33 | 44:47 | 37 |
| 14 | Atletico Grau | 33 | 32:41 | 37 |
| 15 | ADT | 33 | 36:48 | 31 |
| 16 | UCV Moquegua | 33 | 27:48 | 30 |
| 17 | FC Cajamarca | 33 | 46:65 | 29 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 33 | 38:58 | 14 |
Primera Division: Apertura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 17 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 30:8 | +22 | 40 | WWDWW |
| 2 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 25:21 | +4 | 34 | LWDLL |
| 3 | Cienciano | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 34:22 | +12 | 33 | DLWWD |
| 4 | Universitario | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 24:15 | +9 | 29 | DLDWL |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 29:20 | +9 | 28 | DWDWL |
| 6 | Cusco | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 21:24 | -3 | 27 | WLDDW |
| 7 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 21:18 | +3 | 26 | DWWWW |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 20:18 | +2 | 21 | DWLWW |
| 9 | Comerciantes Unidos | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 18:20 | -2 | 21 | DLDLW |
| 10 | ADT | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 22:21 | +1 | 20 | LWDWW |
| 11 | Sport Boys | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 15:19 | -4 | 20 | DWDLD |
| 12 | Sporting Cristal | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 28:30 | -2 | 19 | WLDDL |
| 13 | UTC Cajamarca | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 21:26 | -5 | 18 | DLLLD |
| 14 | UCV Moquegua | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 17:24 | -7 | 18 | DLDLW |
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 23:28 | -5 | 17 | DWWWL |
| 16 | Atletico Grau | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 12:18 | -6 | 16 | LWLLL |
| 17 | Sport Huancayo | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 21:31 | -10 | 16 | DLWLL |
| 18 | Juan Pablo II College | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 22:40 | -18 | 16 | DLLLD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 17 | 30:8 | 40 |
| 2 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 17 | 25:21 | 34 |
| 3 | Cienciano | 17 | 34:22 | 33 |
| 4 | Universitario | 17 | 24:15 | 29 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 17 | 29:20 | 28 |
| 6 | Cusco | 17 | 21:24 | 27 |
| 7 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 17 | 21:18 | 26 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 17 | 20:18 | 21 |
| 9 | Comerciantes Unidos | 17 | 18:20 | 21 |
| 10 | ADT | 17 | 22:21 | 20 |
| 11 | Sport Boys | 17 | 15:19 | 20 |
| 12 | Sporting Cristal | 17 | 28:30 | 19 |
| 13 | UTC Cajamarca | 17 | 21:26 | 18 |
| 14 | UCV Moquegua | 17 | 17:24 | 18 |
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 17 | 23:28 | 17 |
| 16 | Atletico Grau | 17 | 12:18 | 16 |
| 17 | Sport Huancayo | 17 | 21:31 | 16 |
| 18 | Juan Pablo II College | 17 | 22:40 | 16 |
Primera Division: Clausura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sport Huancayo | 16 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 27:18 | +9 | 34 | DLWLL |
| 2 | Sporting Cristal | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 35:18 | +17 | 32 | WLDDL |
| 3 | Universitario | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 35:24 | +11 | 32 | DLDWL |
| 4 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 29:17 | +12 | 29 | DWWWW |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 27:18 | +9 | 29 | DWDWL |
| 6 | Alianza Lima | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 24:16 | +8 | 29 | WWDWW |
| 7 | Alianza Atletico | 16 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 29:30 | -1 | 28 | DWLWW |
| 8 | Sport Boys | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 22:16 | +6 | 26 | DWDLD |
| 9 | Juan Pablo II College | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 26:19 | +7 | 25 | DLLLD |
| 10 | Cusco | 16 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 25:23 | +2 | 24 | WLDDW |
| 11 | Atletico Grau | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 20:23 | -3 | 21 | LWLLL |
| 12 | Cienciano | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 20:24 | -4 | 17 | DLWWD |
| 13 | Comerciantes Unidos | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 26:27 | -1 | 16 | DLDLW |
| 14 | FC Cajamarca | 16 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 23:37 | -14 | 14 | DWWWL |
| 15 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 15:31 | -16 | 14 | LWDLL |
| 16 | ADT | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 14:27 | -13 | 12 | LWDWW |
| 17 | UCV Moquegua | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 10:24 | -14 | 12 | DLDLW |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 16 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 17:32 | -15 | 6 | DLLLD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sport Huancayo | 16 | 27:18 | 34 |
| 2 | Sporting Cristal | 16 | 35:18 | 32 |
| 3 | Universitario | 16 | 35:24 | 32 |
| 4 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 16 | 29:17 | 29 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 16 | 27:18 | 29 |
| 6 | Alianza Lima | 16 | 24:16 | 29 |
| 7 | Alianza Atletico | 16 | 29:30 | 28 |
| 8 | Sport Boys | 16 | 22:16 | 26 |
| 9 | Juan Pablo II College | 16 | 26:19 | 25 |
| 10 | Cusco | 16 | 25:23 | 24 |
| 11 | Atletico Grau | 16 | 20:23 | 21 |
| 12 | Cienciano | 16 | 20:24 | 17 |
| 13 | Comerciantes Unidos | 16 | 26:27 | 16 |
| 14 | FC Cajamarca | 16 | 23:37 | 14 |
| 15 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 16 | 15:31 | 14 |
| 16 | ADT | 16 | 14:27 | 12 |
| 17 | UCV Moquegua | 16 | 10:24 | 12 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 16 | 17:32 | 6 |
PromotionRelegation
Explore more predictions
This match
More Primera División matches
- UTC Cajamarca vs Comerciantes Unidos 22/08/26
- Juan Pablo II College vs ADT 22/08/26
- Deportivo Garcilaso vs Cusco 23/08/26
- Sport Boys vs Cienciano 23/08/26
- Universitario vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas 24/08/26
- Comerciantes Unidos vs FC Cajamarca 28/08/26
- Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs Juan Pablo II College 29/08/26
- UTC Cajamarca vs Universitario 29/08/26
About the FBC Melgar vs Alianza Lima forecast
The forecasts for this Primera División match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage is the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% means strong statistical confidence; 45-65% points to a competitive, open match; below 45% means the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for information and entertainment only.
FBC Melgar and Alianza Lima in the Primera División table
This is a meeting of two top-four sides: Alianza Lima are 1st in the Primera División, 12 points ahead of FBC Melgar in 3rd. League goal record so far: FBC Melgar 56-38, Alianza Lima 54-24. The full standings are on the Primera División Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
FBC Melgar have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.