Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense Prediction

Arena da Baixada, Curitiba· Felipe Fernandes de Lima, Brazil 30/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
73%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.30
SignalNEUTRALModel42%RiskMediumGap-4.0%
Atletico Paranaense Rest
5 days
Fluminense Rest
7 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
41%2.15
X
31%3.19
2
28%3.50
Double Chance
1X
72%1.30
X2
59%1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%1.93
No
50%1.80
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.24 + 0.95 = 2.19
Over 1.5
69%1.40
Over 2.5
41%2.25
Over 3.5
21%4.20
Under 1.5
31%2.80
Under 2.5
59%1.62
Under 3.5
79%1.20
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.9 + 4.2 = 9.2
Over 8.5
55%1.52
Over 9.5
40%1.87
Over 10.5
29%2.42
Under 8.5
45%2.38
Under 9.5
60%1.83
Under 10.5
71%1.50
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.2 + 3.1 = 5.2
Over 3.5
69%-
Over 4.5
55%-
Under 3.5
31%-
Under 4.5
45%-

Match Events

35'LeozinhoAssist: S. Mendoza
38'Hulk
45+5'PH GansoTripping
48'G. Benavidez
49'G. Benavidez
59'Y. Soteldo INK. Serna out
60'PH Ganso INL. Acosta out
65'A. Canobbio
71'Leozinho INDudu Kogitzki out
72'Joao Cruz INK. A. Calderon Vargas out
76'NonatoRoughing
78'IgnacioAssist: Hulk
80'K. ViverosUnsportsmanlike conduct
82'Luiz Gustavo INB. Zapelli out
83'F. Aguirre INJ. Rivaldo out
87'Goal Disallowed - offsideK. Viveros
90+1'A. Canobbio INJ. Savarino out
90+1'Hulk INJemmes out
90+5'K. Viveros(Penalty)

Lineups

Atletico Paranaense
3-4-2-1Coach: Joao Correia
Fluminense
4-2-3-1Coach: Marcao
Santos23SantosSantos
Dantas25DantasDantas
Juan Felipe Aguirre33J. Felipe AguirreJuan Felipe Aguirre
Arthur Dias4A. DiasArthur Dias
Gastón Benavídez29G. BenavídezGastón Benavídez
Jádson16JádsonJádson
Luiz Gustavo14L. GustavoLuiz Gustavo
Steven Mendoza7S. MendozaSteven Mendoza
Leozinho21LeozinhoLeozinho
João Cruz8J. CruzJoão Cruz
Kevin Viveros9K. ViverosKevin Viveros
Fábio1FábioFábio
Guga23GugaGuga
Ignácio4IgnácioIgnácio
Julián Millán29J. MillánJulián Millán
Renê6RenêRenê
Nonato16NonatoNonato
Martinelli8MartinelliMartinelli
Agustín Canobbio17A. CanobbioAgustín Canobbio
Ganso10GansoGanso
Yeferson Soteldo30Y. SoteldoYeferson Soteldo
Hulk7HulkHulk

Atletico Paranaense Substitutes

1MycaelG
2Gilberto JuniorD
22Carlos TeránD
3LéoD
63Diogo RiquelmeM
11IsaacF
53DuduM
18Kerwin VargasF
5FelipinhoD
10Bruno ZapelliM
19Jorge RivaldoF
70Renan Peixoto NepomucenoF

Fluminense Substitutes

32Luciano AcostaM
90Kevin SernaF
27Marcelo PitalugaG
3Thiago SilvaD
13Guilherme AranaD
46Júlio FidelisD
44JemmesD
11Jefferson SavarinoF
94OtávioM
28Riquelme FelipeF
14Germán CanoF
19Rodrigo CastilloF

Match Stats

Atletico ParanaenseFluminense
47%Ball Possession53%
8Corner Kicks3
2Yellow Cards2
17Total Shots12
8Shots on Goal6
3Shots off Goal3
13Shots Inside Box7
4Shots Outside Box5
6Blocked Shots3
14Fouls11
4Offsides0
3Goalkeeper Saves5
432Total Passes511
382Passes Accurate445
88%Pass Accuracy87%

Team Comparison

Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense
FluminenseFluminense
1720Elo Rating 1738
2.26Attack 1.70
0.45Defense 1.55
17%Hit Rate 56%
13.4Shots per Game 8.5
5.9Shots on Target 4.0
3.9Corners per Game 3.0
2.4Cards per Game 2.2

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend66% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.3 vs 1 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
FluminenseFluminense
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.1 vs 0.6 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Based on 5 historical meetings

Atletico Paranaense 0%Draw 39%61% Fluminense
2.95Avg Goals
66%BTTS Rate
44%Over 2.5

Referee Profile

Felipe Fernandes de Lima, Brazil · 23 matches analysed

4.4Avg Yellows
4.5Avg Cards
26.7Avg Fouls
Stricter than 53% of referees analysed

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FlamengoFlamengo27176453:22+3157WWWWL
2PalmeirasPalmeiras27168347:21+2656WDDWL
3Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense27137741:31+1046DLDWD
4BahiaBahia271210542:33+946WWWWD
5FluminenseFluminense27129641:35+645LWDWW
6CruzeiroCruzeiro27126939:39042LWLWW
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG26116935:31+439WLWDW
8CoritibaCoritiba27108937:38-138DLWWD
9RB BragantinoRB Bragantino261061032:29+336DLLWD
10SantosSantos2698939:39035WWWDW
11BotafogoBotafogo27981041:43-235WDDLL
12Sao PauloSao Paulo26961131:30+133LWWLD
13VitoriaVitoria27961227:39-1233DWLLW
14CorinthiansCorinthians27881128:29-132LLLLL
15MirassolMirassol27781231:42-1129DWLDD
16GremioGremio27771330:38-828LLLWL
17Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama26771229:41-1228WLWLL
18InternacionalInternacional276101130:35-528WLLDD
19RemoRemo27581431:45-1423LLLLD
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc26381528:52-2417LWLWD
#TeamMPGPts
1FlamengoFlamengo2753:2257
2PalmeirasPalmeiras2747:2156
3Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense2741:3146
4BahiaBahia2742:3346
5FluminenseFluminense2741:3545
6CruzeiroCruzeiro2739:3942
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG2635:3139
8CoritibaCoritiba2737:3838
9RB BragantinoRB Bragantino2632:2936
10SantosSantos2639:3935
11BotafogoBotafogo2741:4335
12Sao PauloSao Paulo2631:3033
13VitoriaVitoria2727:3933
14CorinthiansCorinthians2728:2932
15MirassolMirassol2731:4229
16GremioGremio2730:3828
17Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama2629:4128
18InternacionalInternacional2730:3528
19RemoRemo2731:4523
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc2628:5217
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Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense Prediction

Our AI model has analysed this Serie A fixture using team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history. The forecasts cover six independent markets - each probability is a separate model calculation, not derived from the match winner result.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About Serie A

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Key Factors for This Match

Atletico Paranaense and Fluminense have met 5 times recently, averaging 2.95 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.