Fluminense vs Coritiba Prediction

Fluminense
4-0
Finished
HT 1-0
Coritiba
Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro·Rodrigo Jose Pereira de Lima 09/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
66%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.45
SignalSOLIDModel67%SurpriseMediumGap-3.6%
Value Analysis
67%Trust
Home Cards
Home Cards Under 2.5
1.53
SignalGOODModel67%SurpriseMediumGap+5.5%
Fluminense Rest
18 days
Coritiba Rest
19 days

Fluminense vs Coritiba: the result in context

Fluminense beat Coritiba 4-0 in the Serie A on 9 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

When these two meet, goals usually follow: 3.8 a game across 5 meetings, with both teams scoring in 4.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
65%1.45
X
20%4.50
2
15%6.96
Double Chance
1X
85%1.10
X2
35%2.73
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%1.82
No
48%1.88
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.92 + 0.9 = 2.82
Over 1.5
77%1.20
Over 2.5
55%1.72
Over 3.5
33%2.75
Under 1.5
23%4.10
Under 2.5
45%2.15
Under 3.5
67%1.42
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.1 + 4.3 = 10.4
Over 8.5
65%1.28
Over 9.5
54%1.52
Over 10.5
44%1.86
Under 8.5
35%3.23
Under 9.5
46%2.34
Under 10.5
56%1.84
Cards
Projected Cards: 2 + 2.8 = 4.8
Over 3.5
70%1.35
Over 4.5
52%1.76
Under 3.5
30%3.02
Under 4.5
48%2.00

Match Events

24'Jacy INRodrigo Moledo out
30'Jefferson David Savarino QuinteroAssist: Hulk
49'Jefferson David Savarino QuinteroAssist: Thiago Silva
62'Breno Lopes INFabinho out
62'Pedro Rocha INPaulo Roberto out
62'Paulo Henrique Chagas de Lima INLuciano Acosta out
65'Jefferson David Savarino QuinteroAssist: Kevin Serna
74'Nicolas Fonseca INTinga out
74'Fabricio Bustos INVini Paulista out
79'Hércules Pereira do Nascimento INOtávio Henrique Passos Santos out
79'Claudio Rodrigues Gomes INSamuel Xavier Brito out
79'Jefferson David Savarino Quintero INRodrigo Castillo out
86'Bruno MeloFoul
89'Hulk INWesley Natã de Freitas Prado out
90+3'Luciano AcostaAssist: Wesley Natã de Freitas Prado

Lineups

Fluminense
4-2-3-1Coach: Marcão
Coritiba
4-2-3-1Coach: Fernando Seabra
Avg rating7.50
Avg rating6.11
Fábio6.61Fábio
Guga7.623Guga
Thiago Silva7.83T. Silva
J. Millán7.829J. Millán
Guilherme Arana7.613G. Arana
Hércules7.235Hércules
Martinelli7.28Martinelli
K. Serna7.790K. Serna
PH Ganso7.510P. Ganso
J. Savarino9.811J. Savarino
Hulk7.77Hulk
Pedro Rangel6.622P. Rangel
F. Bustos6.014F. Bustos
Jacy5.755Jacy
Bruno Melo5.426B. Melo
Felipe Jonatan6.46F. Jonatan
Thiago Santos6.421T. Santos
S. Gómez6.119S. Gómez
N. Fonseca6.35N. Fonseca
Josué6.810Josué
Breno Lopes5.877B. Lopes
Pedro Rocha6.232P. Rocha

Fluminense Substitutes

19R. Castillo79'for Jefferson David Savarino Quintero6.5
32L. Acosta62'for Paulo Henrique Chagas de Lima90+3'8.1
22J. Freytes
46Julio Fidelis
94Otávio79'for Hércules Pereira do Nascimento6.8
21Igor Rabello
44Jemmes
41Ruan Sales Oliveira
2Samuel Xavier79'for Claudio Rodrigues Gomes7.1
4Ignacio
27Marcelo
34Wesley Nata89'for Hulk7.1

Coritiba Substitutes

28Fabinho62'for Breno Lopes6.5
78Renato Marques
4Rodrigo Moledo24'for Jacy6.0
3Maicon
99Rodrigo Rodrigues
66Rodrigo Gelado
39Gustavo
13Keiller
18Paulo Roberto62'for Pedro Rocha5.9
2Tinga74'for Nicolas Fonseca5.5
36Vini Paulista74'for Fabricio Bustos6.3
50Tissi

Match Stats

FluminenseCoritiba
68%Ball Possession32%
3Corner Kicks2
0Yellow Cards1
22Total Shots8
10Shots on Goal0
11Shots off Goal6
13Shots Inside Box6
9Shots Outside Box2
1Blocked Shots2
9Fouls8
2Offsides1
0Goalkeeper Saves6
864Total Passes398
807Passes Accurate341
8Free Kicks9

Team Comparison

FluminenseFluminense
CoritibaCoritiba
1718Elo Rating 1607
1.58Attack 0.65
1.67Defense 0.47
31%Hit Rate 0%
11.9Shots per Game 11.9
4.3Shots on Target 2.6
3.5Corners per Game 5.0
2.3Cards per Game 2.5

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+110 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy2.82 goals
📈BTTS Trend80% in H2H
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

FluminenseFluminense
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1 vs 0.6 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
CoritibaCoritiba
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 5 meetings, all competitions

FluminenseFluminense2Wins · 40%
Draws120%
CoritibaCoritiba2Wins · 40%
3.8Avg Goals
80%Both teams scored4 of 5
60%3+ goals3 of 5

Previous meetings

Serie A05/04/2026
CoritibaFluminense
11
Serie A26/11/2023
FluminenseCoritiba
21
Serie A25/07/2023
CoritibaFluminense
20
Serie A21/08/2022
FluminenseCoritiba
52
Serie A01/05/2022
CoritibaFluminense
32

Referee Profile

Rodrigo Jose Pereira de Lima167 matches

5.36Cards per match
5.10Yellow cards per match
0.25Red cards per match
27.7Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Rodrigo Jose Pereira de Lima5.36
Other referees5.27

5.36 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.27).

Cards come from 115 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FlamengoFlamengo31207461:25+3667WWDWW
2PalmeirasPalmeiras31199354:22+3266WWWDW
3Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense31158849:37+1253LWDWD
4CruzeiroCruzeiro311561050:46+451WLWWL
5FluminenseFluminense31149849:39+1051LLWWL
6Atletico-MGAtletico-MG31148942:35+750WWDWD
7BahiaBahia311310844:39+549LWLLW
8SantosSantos311291048:46+245WLDWW
9Sao PauloSao Paulo311261336:35+142WWLLW
10RB BragantinoRB Bragantino311181239:36+341DWDLL
11BotafogoBotafogo311091244:48-439WDLLW
12CoritibaCoritiba311091238:49-1139LDLLD
13VitoriaVitoria311071434:45-1137DLWLD
14MirassolMirassol31991336:44-836WLDWD
15Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama30981336:43-735LDWWW
16CorinthiansCorinthians31891432:39-733DLLLL
17InternacionalInternacional317111333:40-732LDWLW
18GremioGremio317101434:44-1031LDDDL
19RemoRemo315111534:49-1526DDDLL
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc30391830:62-3218LLLDL
#TeamMPGPts
1FlamengoFlamengo3161:2567
2PalmeirasPalmeiras3154:2266
3Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense3149:3753
4CruzeiroCruzeiro3150:4651
5FluminenseFluminense3149:3951
6Atletico-MGAtletico-MG3142:3550
7BahiaBahia3144:3949
8SantosSantos3148:4645
9Sao PauloSao Paulo3136:3542
10RB BragantinoRB Bragantino3139:3641
11BotafogoBotafogo3144:4839
12CoritibaCoritiba3138:4939
13VitoriaVitoria3134:4537
14MirassolMirassol3136:4436
15Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama3036:4335
16CorinthiansCorinthians3132:3933
17InternacionalInternacional3133:4032
18GremioGremio3134:4431
19RemoRemo3134:4926
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc3030:6218
PromotionRelegation

About the Fluminense vs Coritiba forecast

The forecasts for this Serie A match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Fluminense and Coritiba in the Serie A table

In the Serie A table, Fluminense are 5th and Coritiba 12th, 12 points apart. League goal record so far: Fluminense 49-39, Coritiba 38-49. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Fluminense have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.