Atletico-MG vs Fluminense Prediction
Brazil · Regular Season - 27
MRV Arena, Belo Horizonte 12/09/2026
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
Value Analysis
57%Trust
BTTS
Both Teams to Score
1.90
SignalNEUTRALModel57%SurpriseMediumGap+5.9%
Atletico-MG Rest
2 days
Fluminense Rest
3 days
Atletico-MG vs Fluminense: the result in context
Atletico-MG beat Fluminense 3-1 in the Serie A on 12 Sep 2026. That went against recent form: Fluminense had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 2 for Atletico-MG.
Their 10 previous meetings averaged 2.4 goals, with both teams scoring in 3 of them.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
144%2.15
X30%3.25
226%3.50
Double Chance
1X74%1.29
X256%1.70
Both Teams to Score
Yes57%1.90
No43%1.80
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.36 + 1.06 = 2.42
Over 1.573%1.36
Over 2.547%2.21
Over 3.527%4.00
Under 1.527%2.90
Under 2.553%1.67
Under 3.573%1.22
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.2 + 4.6 = 9.8
Over 8.559%1.36
Over 9.546%1.65
Over 10.536%2.08
Under 8.541%2.79
Under 9.554%2.13
Under 10.564%1.68
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.2 + 2.3 = 4.6
Over 3.567%1.43
Over 4.548%2.00
Under 3.533%2.69
Under 4.552%1.75
Match Events
19'Alan FrancoFoul
52'Otávio Henrique Passos SantosFoul
61'Luciano Acosta INHércules Pereira do Nascimento out
61'Agustín Canobbio INKevin Serna out
61'Reinier Jesus CarvalhoAssist: Tomás Cuello
63'Tomás Cuello
65'Alan Franco INMaycon de Andrade Barberan out
65'Kevin Castaño INMamady Cisse out
69'Rodrigo CastilloDissent
70'Tomás Cuello INIgor Gomes out
70'Bernard Anício Caldeira Duarte INGustavo Scarpa out
72'Otávio Henrique Passos Santos INPaulo Henrique Chagas de Lima out
72'Jefferson David Savarino Quintero INRiquelme Felipe·Silva de Almeida out
78'Reinier Jesus Carvalho INMateo Cassierra out
81'Vitor Fernandes Chaves TeixeiraAssist: Mateo Cassierra
90'Rodrigo CastilloAssist: Kevin Serna
90+6'Julio César Lima Fidelis INJemmes Bruno Ribeiro Da Silva out
Lineups
Atletico-MGFluminense
4-4-2Coach: MarcãoAvg ratingAvg rating
1G. Delfim
2Natanael
40Vitão
14V. Hugo
36K. Pascini
21A. Franco
15K. Castaño
28T. Cuello
7Fred
11Bernard
19Reinier
1Fábio
46J. Fidelis
21I. Rabello
22J. Freytes
13G. Arana
17A. Canobbio
94Otávio
16Nonato
11J. Savarino
19R. Castillo
32L. AcostaAtletico-MG Substitutes
5Alexsander
9M. Cassierra78'for Reinier Jesus Carvalho
39Mamady Cisse65'for Kevin Castaño
92Dudu
10Gustavo Scarpa70'for Bernard Anício Caldeira Duarte
17Igor Gomes70'for Tomás Cuello
6Renan Lodi
13Lyanco
8Maycon65'for Alan Franco
27A. Minda
23A. Preciado
31Robert
Fluminense Substitutes
34Wesley Nata
98Vitor Eudes
90K. Serna61'for Agustín Canobbio
28Riquelme72'for Jefferson David Savarino Quintero
6Renê
10PH Ganso72'for Otávio Henrique Passos Santos
29J. Millán
8Martinelli
44Jemmes90+6'for Julio César Lima Fidelis
35Hércules61'for Luciano Acosta
41Ruan Sales Oliveira
Match Stats
Atletico-MGFluminense 48%Ball Possession52%
5Corner Kicks2
1Yellow Cards2
15Total Shots9
7Shots on Goal3
3Shots off Goal5
6Shots Inside Box4
9Shots Outside Box5
5Blocked Shots1
8Fouls11
2Offsides0
2Goalkeeper Saves5
495Total Passes536
433Passes Accurate473
87%Pass Accuracy88%
Team Comparison
Atletico-MGFluminense1704Elo Rating 1729
0.33Attack 1.27
1.30Defense 1.66
0%Hit Rate 46%
12.8Shots per Game 11.6
3.1Shots on Target 3.7
5.8Corners per Game 5.8
1.9Cards per Game 1.4
AI Insights
📉Home Underperforming
Game State Tendencies
Atletico-MG- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Fluminense- Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
- Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0.4 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
Atletico-MG4Wins · 40%Draws220%
Fluminense4Wins · 40%
4Wins · 40%2.4Avg Goals
30%Both teams scored3 of 10
30%3+ goals3 of 10
Previous meetings
21/03/2026FluminenseAtletico-MG10
04/10/2025FluminenseAtletico-MG30
11/05/2025Atletico-MGFluminense32
26/09/2024Atletico-MGFluminense20
19/09/2024FluminenseAtletico-MG10
25/08/2024Atletico-MGFluminense02
04/05/2024FluminenseAtletico-MG22
29/10/2023Atletico-MGFluminense20
22/06/2023FluminenseAtletico-MG11
01/10/2022Atletico-MGFluminense20
Recent Form
Atletico-MG4W4D2L
10/09/2026
SantosAtletico-MG
Sao PauloAtletico-MGAtletico-MG
CruzeiroAtletico-MG
VitoriaCruzeiroAtletico-MG
InternacionalAtletico-MGAtletico-MG
RB BragantinoRB BragantinoAtletico-MG
RemoAtletico-MG
SantosAtletico-MG20
L05/09/2026Sao PauloAtletico-MG20
L02/09/2026Atletico-MGCruzeiro21
W29/08/2026Atletico-MGVitoria21
W26/08/2026CruzeiroAtletico-MG11
D22/08/2026InternacionalAtletico-MG00
D20/08/2026Atletico-MGRB Bragantino22
D16/08/2026Atletico-MG
Gremio
13/08/2026Atletico-MGGremio30
WRB BragantinoAtletico-MG01
W08/08/2026RemoAtletico-MG22
DFluminense5W4D1L
09/09/2026Fluminense
Platense
Atletico ParanaenseFluminenseFluminenseRemo
Independ. RivadaviaFluminenseFluminense
PalmeirasFluminenseIndepend. Rivadavia
BotafogoFluminenseFluminense
Vasco DA GamaVasco DA GamaFluminense
FluminensePlatense20
W06/09/2026FluminenseVasco DA Gama
30/08/2026FluminenseVasco DA Gama10
WAtletico ParanaenseFluminense33
D22/08/2026FluminenseRemo21
W19/08/2026Independ. RivadaviaFluminense4151
W15/08/2026FluminensePalmeiras32
W12/08/2026FluminenseIndepend. Rivadavia00
D09/08/2026BotafogoFluminense11
D06/08/2026FluminenseVasco DA Gama13
L01/08/2026Vasco DA GamaFluminense00
DLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | 71:29 | +42 | 76 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 34 | 21 | 10 | 3 | 62:23 | +39 | 73 | WDWWW |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 55:48 | +7 | 60 | WWWWL |
| 4 | Fluminense | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 55:42 | +13 | 57 | WWLLL |
| 5 | Atletico Paranaense | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 51:43 | +8 | 54 | LLDLW |
| 6 |  Bahia | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 50:45 | +5 | 53 | LWDLW |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 44:40 | +4 | 50 | LLLWW |
| 8 | RB Bragantino | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 44:39 | +5 | 47 | WWLDW |
| 9 | Santos | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 50:49 | +1 | 47 | LDDWL |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 39:39 | 0 | 44 | DLDWW |
| 11 | Botafogo | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 46:53 | -7 | 42 | WLLWD |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 40:51 | -11 | 42 | LWLLD |
| 13 | Vasco DA Gama | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 43:50 | -7 | 41 | WLWLD |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 39:48 | -9 | 40 | WLDWL |
| 15 | Vitoria | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 35:51 | -16 | 38 | LLDDL |
| 16 | Internacional | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 38:42 | -4 | 38 | WLWLD |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 36:42 | -6 | 37 | DWLDL |
| 18 | Gremio | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 38:47 | -9 | 37 | LWWLD |
| 19 | Remo | 34 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 37:57 | -20 | 29 | LWLDD |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 33 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 33:68 | -35 | 21 | LLWLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 34 | 71:29 | 76 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 34 | 62:23 | 73 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 34 | 55:48 | 60 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 34 | 55:42 | 57 |
| 5 | Atletico Paranaense | 34 | 51:43 | 54 |
| 6 | Bahia | 34 | 50:45 | 53 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 34 | 44:40 | 50 |
| 8 | RB Bragantino | 34 | 44:39 | 47 |
| 9 | Santos | 34 | 50:49 | 47 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 34 | 39:39 | 44 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 34 | 46:53 | 42 |
| 12 | Coritiba | 34 | 40:51 | 42 |
| 13 | Vasco DA Gama | 33 | 43:50 | 41 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 34 | 39:48 | 40 |
| 15 | Vitoria | 34 | 35:51 | 38 |
| 16 | Internacional | 34 | 38:42 | 38 |
| 17 | Corinthians | 34 | 36:42 | 37 |
| 18 | Gremio | 34 | 38:47 | 37 |
| 19 | Remo | 34 | 37:57 | 29 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 33 | 33:68 | 21 |
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About the Atletico-MG vs Fluminense forecast
The forecasts for this Serie A match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Atletico-MG and Fluminense in the Serie A table
In the Serie A table, Fluminense are 4th and Atletico-MG 7th, 7 points apart. League goal record so far: Atletico-MG 44-40, Fluminense 55-42. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.