Corinthians vs Fluminense Prediction

Corinthians
1-3
Finished
HT 0-1
Fluminense
Neo Quimica Arena, Sao Paulo·Ramon Abatti 20/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
71%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.25
SignalGOODModel42%SurpriseMediumGap-9.2%
Value Analysis
58%Trust
Home Cards
Home Cards Under 2.5
1.95
SignalSOLIDModel58%SurpriseMediumGap+8.2%
Corinthians Rest
3 days
Fluminense Rest
4 days

Corinthians vs Fluminense: the result in context

Fluminense beat Corinthians 3-1 in the Serie A on 20 Sep 2026. It was in line with recent form: Fluminense had won 2 of their previous five, compared with none for Corinthians.

Their 10 previous meetings averaged 2.7 goals, with both teams scoring in 3 of them.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
44%2.10
X
30%3.13
2
26%3.70
Double Chance
1X
74%1.25
X2
56%1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%2.02
No
51%1.73
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.35 + 1.01 = 2.36
Over 1.5
67%1.44
Over 2.5
42%2.40
Over 3.5
22%4.50
Under 1.5
33%2.70
Under 2.5
58%1.57
Under 3.5
78%1.20
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.2 + 4.7 = 9.9
Over 8.5
61%1.25
Over 9.5
50%1.49
Over 10.5
39%1.81
Under 8.5
39%3.42
Under 9.5
50%2.40
Under 10.5
61%1.89
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.4 + 2.5 = 4.9
Over 3.5
71%1.22
Over 4.5
53%1.45
Under 3.5
29%3.95
Under 4.5
47%2.60

Match Events

20'Memphis DepayFoul
24'HulkAssist: Luciano Acosta
24'Goal confirmedHulk
35'MatheuzinhoFoul
44'Samuel Xavier BritoTime wasting
45'Iago Machado INGui Negão out
45+6'Matheus Martinelli LimaFoul
56'Gustavo Henrique
59'Samuel Xavier Brito INJulio César Lima Fidelis out
59'Luciano Acosta INPaulo Henrique Chagas de Lima out
61'AndréFoul
62'Agustín CanobbioFoul
64'Julio César Lima FidelisFoul
71'Gustavo Nonato SantanaFoul
76'HulkAssist: Paulo Henrique Chagas de Lima
76'Agustín Canobbio INRiquelme Felipe·Silva de Almeida out
76'Gustavo Nonato Santana INHércules Pereira do Nascimento out
80'André INJesse Lingard out
81'Memphis Depay INPedro Raul out
87'Hulk INRodrigo Castillo out
88'Breno Bidon INMatheus Pereira out
90+3'Kevin SernaAssist: Matheus Martinelli Lima

Lineups

Corinthians
4-2-3-1Coach: Fernando Diniz
Fluminense
4-2-3-1Coach: Marcão
Avg rating6.38
Avg rating7.03
Hugo Souza6.01H. Souza
Matheuzinho6.02Matheuzinho
I. Machado6.355I. Machado
Gustavo Henrique7.413G. Henrique
Matheus Bidu6.621M. Bidu
Andre6.449Andre
Raniele6.714Raniele
Kaio César6.537K. César
R. Garro6.78R. Garro
Breno6.57Breno
M. Depay6.810M. Depay
Fábio8.21Fábio
Samuel Xavier6.02S. Xavier
Thiago Silva7.13T. Silva
J. Millán7.029J. Millán
Renê7.26Renê
Nonato6.216Nonato
Martinelli7.48Martinelli
A. Canobbio6.317A. Canobbio
L. Acosta7.732L. Acosta
K. Serna7.990K. Serna
Hulk9.17Hulk

Corinthians Substitutes

61Dieguinho
4João Pedro
51Kauê Camargo
18Pedro Raul81'for Memphis Depay6.1
11Vitinho
26F. Angileri
77J. Lingard80'for André5.8
20P. Milans
23Matheus Pereira88'for Breno Bidon5.9
35Charles
29Allan
56Guilherme Inácio45'for Iago Machado6.3

Fluminense Substitutes

13Guilherme Arana
35Hércules76'for Gustavo Nonato Santana6.4
21Igor Rabello
44Jemmes
46Julio Fidelis59'for Samuel Xavier Brito64'6.1
94Otávio
10PH Ganso59'for Luciano Acosta6.4
28Riquelme76'for Agustín Canobbio6.9
11J. Savarino
98Vitor Eudes
19R. Castillo87'for Hulk6.8
22J. Freytes

Match Stats

CorinthiansFluminense
57%Ball Possession43%
11Corner Kicks1
3Yellow Cards5
20Total Shots10
7Shots on Goal6
6Shots off Goal2
11Shots Inside Box8
9Shots Outside Box2
7Blocked Shots2
16Fouls21
1Offsides1
3Goalkeeper Saves6
513Total Passes417
452Passes Accurate349
21Free Kicks14

Team Comparison

CorinthiansCorinthians
FluminenseFluminense
1629Elo Rating 1729
1.15Attack 1.27
1.69Defense 1.66
23%Hit Rate 46%
20.4Shots per Game 11.6
5.1Shots on Target 3.7
5.6Corners per Game 5.8
3.1Cards per Game 1.4

AI Insights

📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

CorinthiansCorinthians
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.2 vs 0 in first half)
FluminenseFluminense
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0.4 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

CorinthiansCorinthians4Wins · 40%
Draws330%
FluminenseFluminense3Wins · 30%
2.7Avg Goals
30%Both teams scored3 of 10
50%3+ goals5 of 10

Previous meetings

Serie A02/04/2026
FluminenseCorinthians
31
Serie A14/09/2025
FluminenseCorinthians
01
Serie A17/04/2025
CorinthiansFluminense
02
Serie A18/08/2024
FluminenseCorinthians
00
Serie A28/04/2024
CorinthiansFluminense
30
Serie A20/10/2023
FluminenseCorinthians
33
Serie A28/05/2023
CorinthiansFluminense
20
Serie A27/10/2022
CorinthiansFluminense
02
Copa Do Brasil16/09/2022
CorinthiansFluminense
30
Copa Do Brasil25/08/2022
FluminenseCorinthians
22

Referee Profile

Ramon Abatti245 matches

4.76Cards per match
4.51Yellow cards per match
0.25Red cards per match
29.5Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Ramon Abatti4.76
Other referees5.11

4.76 cards a match, 0.35 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.11).

Cards come from 182 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FlamengoFlamengo34237471:29+4276WWWWW
2PalmeirasPalmeiras342110362:23+3973WDWWW
3CruzeiroCruzeiro341861055:48+760WWWWL
4FluminenseFluminense33159952:42+1054WLLLW
5Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense341591051:43+854LLDLW
6BahiaBahia341411950:45+553LWDLW
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG341481244:40+450LLLWW
8RB BragantinoRB Bragantino341381344:39+547WWLDW
9SantosSantos3412111150:49+147LDDWL
10Sao PauloSao Paulo341281439:39044DLDWW
11BotafogoBotafogo341191446:53-742WLLWD
12CoritibaCoritiba341191440:51-1142LWLLD
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama331181443:50-741WLWLD
14MirassolMirassol3410101439:48-940WLDWL
15VitoriaVitoria331081535:48-1338LDDLW
16InternacionalInternacional349111438:42-438WLWLD
17CorinthiansCorinthians349101536:42-637DWLDL
18GremioGremio349101538:47-937LWWLD
19RemoRemo346111737:57-2029LWLDD
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc33492033:68-3521LLWLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FlamengoFlamengo3471:2976
2PalmeirasPalmeiras3462:2373
3CruzeiroCruzeiro3455:4860
4FluminenseFluminense3352:4254
5Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense3451:4354
6BahiaBahia3450:4553
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG3444:4050
8RB BragantinoRB Bragantino3444:3947
9SantosSantos3450:4947
10Sao PauloSao Paulo3439:3944
11BotafogoBotafogo3446:5342
12CoritibaCoritiba3440:5142
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama3343:5041
14MirassolMirassol3439:4840
15VitoriaVitoria3335:4838
16InternacionalInternacional3438:4238
17CorinthiansCorinthians3436:4237
18GremioGremio3438:4737
19RemoRemo3437:5729
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc3333:6821
PromotionRelegation

About the Corinthians vs Fluminense forecast

The forecasts for this Serie A match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Corinthians and Fluminense in the Serie A table

The table shows a wide gap: Fluminense are 4th in the Serie A, while Corinthians sit 17th, 17 points behind. League goal record so far: Corinthians 36-42, Fluminense 52-42. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.