Fortaleza EC vs Nautico Recife Prediction

Serie BBrazil Brazil · Regular Season - 31
Fortaleza EC
1-1
Finished
HT 1-1
Nautico Recife
Estadio Castelão, Fortaleza·Kleber Ariel Goncalves da Silva 03/10/2026
Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC
1-1
Finished
Nautico RecifeNautico Recife

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
66%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.53
SignalSOLIDModel66%SurpriseMediumGap+0.4%
Value Analysis
61%Trust
Home Corners
Home Corners Over 5.5
1.71
SignalSOLIDModel61%SurpriseMediumGap+5.7%
Fortaleza EC Rest
5 days
Nautico Recife Rest
6 days

Fortaleza EC vs Nautico Recife: result, form and history

Fortaleza EC and Nautico Recife drew 1-1 in the Serie B on 3 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
65%1.53
X
24%3.90
2
11%5.75
Double Chance
1X
89%1.13
X2
36%2.32
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%1.95
No
52%1.75
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.72 + 0.84 = 2.56
Over 1.5
73%1.28
Over 2.5
49%1.94
Over 3.5
28%3.30
Under 1.5
27%3.40
Under 2.5
51%1.83
Under 3.5
72%1.30
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.5 + 4 = 10.5
Over 8.5
70%1.30
Over 9.5
58%1.58
Over 10.5
47%2.00
Under 8.5
30%2.99
Under 9.5
42%2.23
Under 10.5
53%1.76
Cards
Projected Cards: 2 + 2.4 = 4.4
Over 3.5
64%-
Over 4.5
45%1.80
Under 3.5
36%-
Under 4.5
55%1.91

Match Events

5'ViniciusAssist: Luan Sales
31'Lucas Xavier GazalFoul
43'Luiz FernandoAssist: Maílton
45'Pedro Henrique INRodrigo Henrique Santos De Souza out
45+4'SamuelFoul
51'Luan SalesFoul
58'Derek Freitas Ribeiro INBenjamín Borasi out
58'Samuel INLuiz Felipe out
71'Nathan Fogaça INRodrigo Oliveira dos Santos out
71'Lucas Sasha INJuan Camilo Cantillo out
71'Luan Sales INReginaldo out
76'Vitor Ferreira INWelliton Silva de Azevedo Matheus out
85'Léo Índio INWanderson Camelo Viana out
85'Todinho INPaulo Sérgio out
85'Luiz Fernando INPaulo Baya out
90+4'Wenderson da Silva Costa FerreiraFoul

Lineups

Fortaleza EC
4-3-3Coach: Paulo Autuori
Nautico Recife
4-2-3-1Coach: Bruno Pivetti
Avg rating6.73
Avg rating6.63
João Ricardo6.61J. Ricardo
Maílton7.522Maílton
Lucas Gazal6.83L. Gazal
T. Cardona6.86T. Cardona
Kaio Henrique7.012K. Henrique
Lucas Sasha6.388L. Sasha
Pierre6.75Pierre
Luiz Fernando8.132L. Fernando
Vitinho6.611Vitinho
Nathan Fogaça7.217N. Fogaça
Pedro Henrique5.716P. Henrique
Muriel6.11Muriel
Arnaldo6.82Arnaldo
Léo Índio7.015L. Índio
Alberto7.13Alberto
Ryan6.36Ryan
Wenderson6.78Wenderson
Samuel6.141Samuel
Júnior Todinho6.629J. Todinho
Jean Carlos6.310J. Carlos
Vinícius8.27Vinícius
Derek6.472Derek

Fortaleza EC Substitutes

13Maurício Júnior Lima Rodrigues
8Ronald
29Rodrigo71'for Nathan Fogaça6.4
38Lucca
75Rodriguinho45'for Pedro Henrique6.9
77Paulo Baya85'for Luiz Fernando6.2
31Welliton76'for Vitor Ferreira6.5
25Vinícius Silvestre
10Lucas Crispim
4Luan
23Neris
21J. Cantillo71'for Lucas Sasha6.5

Nautico Recife Substitutes

34Wanderson85'for Léo Índio6.3
19Kaua Almeida da Costa
11Victor Andrade
24B. Borasi58'for Derek Freitas Ribeiro6.5
5Auremir
60Luiz Paulo
55G. Guruceaga
46Gustavo Henrique
93Reginaldo Lopes71'for Luan Sales6.4
27Luiz Felipe58'for Samuel6.5
9Paulo Sérgio85'for Todinho6.9

Match Stats

Fortaleza ECNautico Recife
52%Ball Possession48%
7Corner Kicks4
1Yellow Cards3
16Total Shots12
4Shots on Goal3
8Shots off Goal4
8Shots Inside Box4
8Shots Outside Box8
4Blocked Shots5
15Fouls22
1Offsides1
2Goalkeeper Saves3
532Total Passes512
470Passes Accurate440
22Free Kicks15

Team Comparison

Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC
Nautico RecifeNautico Recife
1713Elo Rating 1553
1.64Attack 0.59
2.09Defense 1.85
46%Hit Rate 14%
11.5Shots per Game 14.2
3.5Shots on Target 3.0
5.0Corners per Game 6.6
2.1Cards per Game 1.7

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+161 Elo
📊Home Overperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.2 vs 0.4 in second half)
Nautico RecifeNautico Recife
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

1 previous meeting, all competitions

Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC1Wins · 100%
Draws00%
Nautico RecifeNautico Recife0Wins · 0%
1.0Avg Goals
0%Both teams scored0 of 1
0%3+ goals0 of 1

Previous meetings

Serie B10/06/2026
Nautico RecifeFortaleza EC
01

Recent Form

Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC
4W6D0L
27/09/2026
Fortaleza ECAthletic Club
22
D20/09/2026
LondrinaFortaleza EC
12
W13/09/2026
Fortaleza ECCeara
11
D10/09/2026
Fortaleza ECAvai
10
W
05/09/2026
GoiasFortaleza EC
01
W
01/09/2026
Fortaleza ECOperario-PR
11
D
23/08/2026
CriciumaFortaleza EC
02
W
20/08/2026
Fortaleza ECSão Bernardo
11
D15/08/2026
JuventudeFortaleza EC
00
D09/08/2026
CuiabaFortaleza EC
11
D
Nautico RecifeNautico Recife
4W4D2L
26/09/2026
Nautico RecifeSport Recife
31
W22/09/2026
CuiabaNautico Recife
30
L16/09/2026
Nautico RecifeOperario-PR
33
D10/09/2026
America MineiroNautico Recife
21
L
04/09/2026
Nautico RecifeBotafogo SP
10
W
29/08/2026
Nautico RecifeAthletic Club
21
W
23/08/2026
São BernardoNautico Recife
11
D
19/08/2026
Nautico RecifeCeara
10
W
15/08/2026
Ponte PretaNautico Recife
11
D
09/08/2026
Nautico RecifeAtletico Goianiense
11
D

Referee Profile

Kleber Ariel Goncalves da Silva44 matches

5.64Cards per match
5.00Yellow cards per match
0.64Red cards per match
30.3Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Kleber Ariel Goncalves da Silva5.64
Other referees5.29

5.64 cards a match, 0.35 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.29).

Cards come from 22 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie B 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1NovorizontinoNovorizontino351810762:30+3264WDWWW
2JuventudeJuventude351810745:23+2264WDDWW
3Vila NovaVila Nova35188950:36+1462LDWDW
4Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC351613643:31+1261DWDWD
5CriciumaCriciuma351781036:30+659LWWLW
6CRBCRB351671253:49+455WLDWL
7Sport RecifeSport Recife351412947:38+954WLDWW
8Atletico GoianienseAtletico Goianiense351412942:33+954LDDLW
9Operario-PROperario-PR351491245:46-151WLLLL
10GoiasGoias341471334:40-649DWWLL
11São BernardoSão Bernardo3513101249:39+1049WLDLW
12Botafogo SPBotafogo SP351381440:38+247WWWWL
13CuiabaCuiaba3511141032:28+447LLLDW
14Athletic ClubAthletic Club3510141140:40044LDDLL
15CearaCeara3411101337:42-543DLWWD
16Nautico RecifeNautico Recife3511101439:46-743LDLLD
17AvaiAvai351071833:45-1237LDWWL
18LondrinaLondrina35881944:51-732LWDLL
19America MineiroAmerica Mineiro35652423:54-3123WWLLL
20Ponte PretaPonte Preta35362621:76-5515DDLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1NovorizontinoNovorizontino3562:3064
2JuventudeJuventude3545:2364
3Vila NovaVila Nova3550:3662
4Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC3543:3161
5CriciumaCriciuma3536:3059
6CRBCRB3553:4955
7Sport RecifeSport Recife3547:3854
8Atletico GoianienseAtletico Goianiense3542:3354
9Operario-PROperario-PR3545:4651
10GoiasGoias3434:4049
11São BernardoSão Bernardo3549:3949
12Botafogo SPBotafogo SP3540:3847
13CuiabaCuiaba3532:2847
14Athletic ClubAthletic Club3540:4044
15CearaCeara3437:4243
16Nautico RecifeNautico Recife3539:4643
17AvaiAvai3533:4537
18LondrinaLondrina3544:5132
19America MineiroAmerica Mineiro3523:5423
20Ponte PretaPonte Preta3521:7615
PromotionRelegation

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About the Fortaleza EC vs Nautico Recife forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Fortaleza EC and Nautico Recife in the Serie B table

In the Serie B table, Fortaleza EC are 4th and Nautico Recife 16th, 18 points apart. League goal record so far: Fortaleza EC 43-31, Nautico Recife 39-46. The full standings are on the Serie B Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Fortaleza EC have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Fortaleza EC and Nautico Recife have met only 1 time recently, with 1.0 goals in that meeting. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.