Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC Prediction

Cuiaba
1-1
Finished
HT 1-0
Fortaleza EC
Arena Pantanal, Cuiabá·Lucas Paulo Torezin, Brazil 09/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.6 / 10
Value Analysis
67%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.58
SignalGOODModel36%SurpriseMediumGap+8.2%
Cuiaba Rest
12 days
Fortaleza EC Rest
3 days

Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC: the result in context

Cuiaba and Fortaleza EC drew 1-1 in the Serie B on 9 Aug 2026. Fortaleza EC had gone in with the better form, having won 3 of their previous five against 1 for Cuiaba.

Their history points to a close game: 9 previous meetings produced 1.4 goals a game. Referee Lucas Paulo Torezin averages 5.71 cards a game, 0.50 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
41%2.37
X
30%2.89
2
29%3.25
Double Chance
1X
71%1.30
X2
59%1.53
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%2.20
No
48%1.60
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.31 + 0.88 = 2.19
Over 1.5
67%1.58
Over 2.5
43%2.75
Over 3.5
13%5.25
Under 1.5
33%2.29
Under 2.5
57%1.40
Under 3.5
87%1.12
Corners
Projected Corners: 6 + 4.4 = 10.4
Over 8.5
65%1.41
Over 9.5
57%1.71
Over 10.5
47%2.10
Under 8.5
35%2.60
Under 9.5
43%2.02
Under 10.5
53%1.66
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.3 + 2.4 = 4.7
Over 3.5
66%-
Over 4.5
47%1.47
Under 3.5
34%-
Under 4.5
53%2.44

Match Events

9'Jean DiasAssist: Eliel
17'PierreFoul
39'H. PedroFoul
42'Luiz FernandoFoul
44'PepeDelay of game
46'Luiz Fernando INPaulo Baya out
46'Vitinho INRodrigo out
46'Eliel INKauan Cristtyan out
54'Mailton(Penalty)
63'J. B. MiritelloUnsportsmanlike conduct
65'G. Fuentes INMauricio Junior out
65'Lucas Sasha INT. Cardona out
70'Pepe INVinicius Peixoto out
84'Jean Dias INMarcos Junior out
84'Calebe Costa INLuiz Otavio out
87'Rodriguinho INRyan out
89'Igor Inocencio INRodrigo Rodrigues out

Lineups

Cuiaba
3-3-1-3Coach: Eduardo Barros
Fortaleza EC
4-2-3-1Coach: Paulo Autuori
Avg rating6.87
Avg rating6.49
Marcelo Carné6.531M. Carné
João Basso7.213J. Basso
Calebe Costa6.25C. Costa
Vitor Mendes6.94V. Mendes
Igor Inocencio6.92I. Inocencio
RaulC6.930Raul
Lorenzo7.736Lorenzo
Pepê6.68Pepê
Eliel6.911Eliel
Pedro Henrique6.096P. Henrique
Jean Dias8.777J. Dias
João RicardoC6.21J. Ricardo
Maílton7.322Maílton
Neris6.623Neris
Lucas Gazal6.53L. Gazal
Gabriel Fuentes6.718G. Fuentes
Lucas Sasha6.388L. Sasha
Pierre6.95Pierre
Vitinho6.711Vitinho
Rodriguinho6.775Rodriguinho
Luiz Fernando6.032L. Fernando
Juan Miritello5.99J. Miritello

Cuiaba Substitutes

41Kauan Cristtyan46'for Eliel7.2
29Vinicius Peixoto70'for Pepe6.5
1João Carlos
91Luisão
6Marlon Lopes
70Wesley
97Luiz Otavio84'replaced by Calebe Costa6.6
26João Vitor
37Railan
27Rodrigo Rodrigues89'for Igor Inocencio
39Gui Mansano
23Marcos Júnior84'for Jean Dias6.3

Fortaleza EC Substitutes

77Paulo Baya46'for Luiz Fernando6.2
29Rodrigo Santos46'for Vitinho6.7
6Tomás Cardona65'for Lucas Sasha6.3
13Maurício Lima6.6
25Vinicius Silvestre
4Luan Freitas
28Paulinho
10Lucas Crispim
37Ryan Gustavo87'for Rodriguinho6.3
31Welliton
17Nathan Fogaça
19Lucas Emanoel

Match Stats

CuiabaFortaleza EC
57%Ball Possession43%
3Corner Kicks3
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
16Total Shots5
3Shots on Goal1
11Shots off Goal1
10Shots Inside Box2
6Shots Outside Box3
2Blocked Shots3
11Fouls10
0Offsides2
1Goalkeeper Saves2
467Total Passes379
408Passes Accurate319
87%Pass Accuracy84%

Team Comparison

CuiabaCuiaba
Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC
1583Elo Rating 1701
0.27Attack 1.32
1.87Defense 2.21
0%Hit Rate 34%
21.1Shots per Game 14.3
5.1Shots on Target 3.7
8.6Corners per Game 6.2
0.5Cards per Game 2.7

AI Insights

📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

CuiabaCuiaba
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.3 vs 0 in second half)
Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.9 vs 0.4 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 9 meetings, all competitions

CuiabaCuiaba5Wins · 56%
Draws222%
Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC2Wins · 22%
1.4Avg Goals
11%Both teams scored1 of 9
22%3+ goals2 of 9

Previous meetings

Serie B01/04/2026
Fortaleza ECCuiaba
00
Serie A29/09/2024
Fortaleza ECCuiaba
10
Serie A16/06/2024
CuiabaFortaleza EC
50
Serie A12/11/2023
CuiabaFortaleza EC
21
Serie A16/07/2023
Fortaleza ECCuiaba
01
Serie A31/07/2022
CuiabaFortaleza EC
01
Serie A10/04/2022
Fortaleza ECCuiaba
01
Serie A07/12/2021
CuiabaFortaleza EC
10
Serie A31/08/2021
Fortaleza ECCuiaba
00

Referee Profile

Lucas Paulo Torezin129 matches

5.71Cards per match
5.34Yellow cards per match
0.37Red cards per match
27.4Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Lucas Paulo Torezin5.71
Other referees5.21

5.71 cards a match, 0.50 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.21).

Cards come from 76 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie B 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1NovorizontinoNovorizontino372010766:32+3470WWWDW
2JuventudeJuventude371911749:26+2368WDWDD
3Vila NovaVila Nova37199953:38+1566WDLDW
4CriciumaCriciuma371881138:31+762LWLWW
5Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC371614744:33+1162LDDWD
6CRBCRB371771357:51+658WLWLD
7GoiasGoias371771339:41-258WWWDW
8Atletico GoianienseAtletico Goianiense371513945:35+1058WDLDD
9Sport RecifeSport Recife3714131050:42+855LDWLD
10Operario-PROperario-PR371591349:50-154WLWLL
11São BernardoSão Bernardo3714101352:42+1052LWWLD
12Botafogo SPBotafogo SP371491445:39+651WDWWW
13CuiabaCuiaba3711141234:32+247LLLLL
14Athletic ClubAthletic Club3711141244:44047LWLDD
15Nautico RecifeNautico Recife3712101540:49-946LWLDL
16CearaCeara3711101638:47-943LLLDL
17AvaiAvai371171935:47-1240WLLDW
18LondrinaLondrina37882145:58-1332LLLWD
19America MineiroAmerica Mineiro37852427:55-2829WWWWL
20Ponte PretaPonte Preta37362821:79-5815LLDDL
#TeamMPGPts
1NovorizontinoNovorizontino3766:3270
2JuventudeJuventude3749:2668
3Vila NovaVila Nova3753:3866
4CriciumaCriciuma3738:3162
5Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC3744:3362
6CRBCRB3757:5158
7GoiasGoias3739:4158
8Atletico GoianienseAtletico Goianiense3745:3558
9Sport RecifeSport Recife3750:4255
10Operario-PROperario-PR3749:5054
11São BernardoSão Bernardo3752:4252
12Botafogo SPBotafogo SP3745:3951
13CuiabaCuiaba3734:3247
14Athletic ClubAthletic Club3744:4447
15Nautico RecifeNautico Recife3740:4946
16CearaCeara3738:4743
17AvaiAvai3735:4740
18LondrinaLondrina3745:5832
19America MineiroAmerica Mineiro3727:5529
20Ponte PretaPonte Preta3721:7915
PromotionRelegation

About the Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC forecast

The forecasts for this Serie B match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Cuiaba and Fortaleza EC in the Serie B table

In the Serie B table, Fortaleza EC are 5th and Cuiaba 13th, 15 points apart. League goal record so far: Cuiaba 34-32, Fortaleza EC 44-33. The full standings are on the Serie B Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Fortaleza EC have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.