FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München Prediction

MEWA Arena, Mainz·Robert Schroder 07/11/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
AI Best Pick
77%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.24
SignalHIGHModel75%SurpriseMediumGap-4.3%
Value Analysis
76%Trust
1X2
Away Win
1.27
SignalHIGHModel76%SurpriseMediumGap+2.0%
FSV Mainz 05 Rest
7 days
Bayern München Rest
3 days

FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München: result, form and history

Bayern München beat FSV Mainz 05 2-1 in the Bundesliga on 7 Nov 2026. It was in line with recent form: Bayern München had won 3 of their previous five, compared with 1 for FSV Mainz 05.

Bayern München have had the better of this fixture, winning 7 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 5.0 goals a game.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
11%9.00
X
16%6.60
2
73%1.27
Double Chance
1X
26%3.75
X2
89%1.08
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%1.49
No
41%2.50
Goals
Projected Goals: 0.84 + 2.06 = 2.90
Over 1.5
88%1.05
Over 2.5
73%1.24
Over 3.5
52%1.63
Under 1.5
12%9.00
Under 2.5
27%3.95
Under 3.5
48%2.29
Corners
Projected Corners: 3.8 + 5.4 = 9.2
Over 8.5
55%1.36
Over 9.5
44%1.63
Over 10.5
33%2.02
Under 8.5
45%2.83
Under 9.5
56%2.13
Under 10.5
67%1.72
Cards
Projected Cards: 2 + 1.3 = 3.3
Over 3.5
42%2.10
Over 4.5
24%2.90
Under 3.5
58%1.68
Under 4.5
76%1.38

Match Events

14'Joshua KimmichAssist: Harry Kane
44'Goal cancelledLee Jae-Sung
45'Manuel Neuer INJonas Urbig out
57'Lennart KarlAssist: Harry Kane
63'Ransford Königsdörffer INPhillip Tietz out
63'Lee Jae-Sung INPaul Nebel out
67'Lennart Karl INTom Bischof out
67'Josip Stanišić INAlphonso Davies out
68'Sheraldo Becker INBenedict Hollerbach out
69'Silvan Widmer INRael Nakuzola out
76'Konrad LaimerFoul
82'Anthony Caci INEric Martel out
86'Konrad Laimer INHiroki Ito out
86'Joshua Kimmich INSacha Boey out
90+2'Phillip TietzAssist: Benedict Hollerbach

Lineups

FSV Mainz 05
3-5-2Coach: U. Fischer
Bayern München
4-2-3-1Coach: V. Kompany
Avg rating6.36
Avg rating7.02
R. Zentner7.127R. Zentner
D. da Costa6.621D. da Costa
F. Gruber6.13F. Gruber
K. Potulski6.448K. Potulski
A. Caci6.519A. Caci
N. Amiri6.310N. Amiri
K. Sano5.96K. Sano
Lee Jae-Sung6.37L. Jae-Sung
S. Widmer6.230S. Widmer
R. Königsdörffer5.811R. Königsdörffer
S. Becker6.323S. Becker
M. Neuer6.41M. Neuer
K. Laimer6.627K. Laimer
D. Upamecano7.02D. Upamecano
J. Tah7.24J. Tah
J. Stanišić6.544J. Stanišić
J. Kimmich8.26J. Kimmich
A. Pavlović7.145A. Pavlović
M. Olise7.217M. Olise
L. Karl8.042L. Karl
N. Brown6.711N. Brown
H. Kane8.69H. Kane

FSV Mainz 05 Substitutes

9P. Tietz63'for Ransford Königsdörffer90+2'7.3
16S. Bell
17B. Hollerbach68'for Sheraldo Becker6.4
24S. Kawasaki
15L. Maloney
5E. Martel82'for Anthony Caci6.0
47R. Nakuzola69'for Silvan Widmer6.7
8P. Nebel63'for Lee Jae-Sung6.0
1A. Schwolow

Bayern München Substitutes

40J. Urbig45'for Manuel Neuer6.3
26S. Ulreich
3Kim Min-Jae
21H. Ito86'for Konrad Laimer6.7
19A. Davies67'for Josip Stanišić6.5
23S. Boey86'for Joshua Kimmich6.6
8T. Bischof67'for Lennart Karl6.8
46T. Binder

Match Stats

FSV Mainz 05Bayern München
31%Ball Possession69%
7Corner Kicks8
0Yellow Cards1
10Total Shots26
1Shots on Goal9
6Shots off Goal10
6Shots Inside Box17
4Shots Outside Box9
3Blocked Shots7
8Fouls8
3Offsides1
6Goalkeeper Saves0
321Total Passes719
233Passes Accurate653
8Free Kicks8

Team Comparison

FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05
Bayern MünchenBayern München
1717Elo Rating 2115
1.25Attack 2.94
0.32Defense 1.90
17%Hit Rate 63%
13.2Shots per Game 18.7
4.9Shots on Target 6.2
6.2Corners per Game 4.8
2.5Cards per Game 1.6

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy2.9 goals
📈BTTS Trend70% in H2H
📉Home Underperforming
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 1st half, then tightens up after the break
Bayern MünchenBayern München
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.9 vs 1.1 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half and can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 052Wins · 20%
Draws110%
Bayern MünchenBayern München7Wins · 70%
5.0Avg Goals
70%Both teams scored7 of 10
100%3+ goals10 of 10

Previous meetings

Bundesliga25/04/2026
FSV Mainz 05Bayern München
34
Bundesliga14/12/2025
Bayern MünchenFSV Mainz 05
22
Bundesliga26/04/2025
Bayern MünchenFSV Mainz 05
30
Bundesliga14/12/2024
FSV Mainz 05Bayern München
21
DFB Pokal30/10/2024
FSV Mainz 05Bayern München
04
Bundesliga09/03/2024
Bayern MunichFSV Mainz 05
81
Bundesliga21/10/2023
FSV Mainz 05Bayern Munich
13
Bundesliga22/04/2023
FSV Mainz 05Bayern Munich
31
DFB Pokal01/02/2023
FSV Mainz 05Bayern Munich
04
Bundesliga29/10/2022
Bayern MunichFSV Mainz 05
62

Referee Profile

Robert Schroder141 matches

4.33Cards per match
4.15Yellow cards per match
0.19Red cards per match
24.8Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Robert Schroder4.32
Other referees4.22

4.32 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.22).

Cards come from 135 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Bundesliga 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Bayern MünchenBayern München963029:9+2021WDWWD
2Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund963016:7+921WDWDD
3SC FreiburgSC Freiburg961220:10+1019WWLLW
4RB LeipzigRB Leipzig960327:13+1418WWWLW
5Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen951320:17+316WLLWW
6Werder BremenWerder Bremen943217:15+215LWWDD
7SV ElversbergSV Elversberg941417:18-113LWLWL
8VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart940515:15012WWLLW
91899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim940516:17-112WLWWL
10Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt933315:20-512DWLWL
11Hamburger SVHamburger SV940510:20-1012WLLWW
12FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05931518:19-110LLLWL
13SC Paderborn 07SC Paderborn 0792438:11-310DDWDL
14FC AugsburgFC Augsburg923420:2009LLDLD
151. FC Köln1. FC Köln923410:14-49LDDLW
16Union BerlinUnion Berlin91447:21-147LDDDW
17FC Schalke 04FC Schalke 0491355:11-66LLDLL
18Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach911712:25-134LDWLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Bayern MünchenBayern München929:921
2Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund916:721
3SC FreiburgSC Freiburg920:1019
4RB LeipzigRB Leipzig927:1318
5Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen920:1716
6Werder BremenWerder Bremen917:1515
7SV ElversbergSV Elversberg917:1813
8VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart915:1512
91899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim916:1712
10Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt915:2012
11Hamburger SVHamburger SV910:2012
12FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05918:1910
13SC Paderborn 07SC Paderborn 0798:1110
14FC AugsburgFC Augsburg920:209
151. FC Köln1. FC Köln910:149
16Union BerlinUnion Berlin97:217
17FC Schalke 04FC Schalke 0495:116
18Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach912:254
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation

About the FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage is the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% means strong statistical confidence; 45-65% points to a competitive, open match; below 45% means the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for information and entertainment only.

FSV Mainz 05 and Bayern München in the Bundesliga table

In the Bundesliga table, Bayern München are 1st and FSV Mainz 05 12th, 11 points apart. League goal record so far: FSV Mainz 05 18-19, Bayern München 29-9. The full standings are on the Bundesliga Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Bayern München have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.