VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction

VfL Bochum
2-0
Finished
HT 0-0
FSV Mainz 05
Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Bochum·Michael Bacher 27/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.7 / 10
AI Best Pick
83%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.17
SignalSTRONGModel59%SurpriseHighGap-2.9%
VfL Bochum Rest
4 days
FSV Mainz 05 Rest
3 days

VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05: the result in context

VfL Bochum beat FSV Mainz 05 2-0 in the DFB Pokal on 27 Oct 2026. That went against recent form: FSV Mainz 05 had won 3 of their previous five, compared with 1 for VfL Bochum.

FSV Mainz 05 have had the better of this fixture, winning 6 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 3.4 goals a game. Referee Michael Bacher averages 5.50 cards a game, 0.91 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
18%5.01
X
24%4.13
2
58%1.59
Double Chance
1X
43%2.27
X2
82%1.14
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%1.60
No
44%2.20
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.17 + 1.89 = 3.06
Over 1.5
82%1.17
Over 2.5
60%1.55
Over 3.5
40%2.28
Under 1.5
18%4.80
Under 2.5
40%2.35
Under 3.5
60%1.54
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

46'Christian Theodor Kjelder RasmussenAssist: Gerrit Holtmann
63'Berkan Taz INKoji Miyoshi out
63'Lee Jae-Sung INEric Martel out
63'Christian Theodor Kjelder Rasmussen INPhilipp Hofmann out
63'Silvan Widmer INAnthony Caci out
63'Phillip Tietz INRansford Königsdörffer out
64'Ransford KönigsdörfferFoul
66'Tom MeyerFoul
71'Gerrit Holtmann INMansour Ouro-Tagba out
75'Philipp HofmannAssist: Jarne Steuckers
81'Maximilian Wittek INLeon Sawas out
81'Jarne Steuckers INLasse Isbruch out
84'Paul Nebel INBenedict Hollerbach out
84'Danny da Costa INSota Kawasaki out
90+6'Lasse IsbruchFoul
90+7'Sean KlaiberArgument

Lineups

VfL Bochum
4-2-3-1Coach: U. Rösler
FSV Mainz 05
3-5-2Coach: U. Fischer
Avg rating7.12
Avg rating6.41
T. Horn7.61T. Horn
S. Klaiber6.82S. Klaiber
M. Steinwender7.815M. Steinwender
K. Mets7.65K. Mets
M. Wittek6.932M. Wittek
M. Pannewig7.024M. Pannewig
T. Meyer6.334T. Meyer
J. Steuckers7.714J. Steuckers
B. Taz6.610B. Taz
G. Holtmann7.217G. Holtmann
C. Rasmussen8.07C. Rasmussen
A. Schwolow6.21A. Schwolow
D. da Costa6.021D. da Costa
S. Posch7.44S. Posch
K. Potulski6.848K. Potulski
S. Widmer5.730S. Widmer
P. Nebel6.38P. Nebel
K. Sano6.46K. Sano
Lee Jae-Sung6.77L. Jae-Sung
P. Mwene6.02P. Mwene
S. Becker6.423S. Becker
P. Tietz6.59P. Tietz

VfL Bochum Substitutes

16T. Casali
19D. Hanslik
33P. Hofmann63'for Christian Theodor Kjelder Rasmussen75'7.5
39L. Isbruch81'for Jarne Steuckers90+6'6.7
4Y. Karademir
23K. Miyoshi63'for Berkan Taz6.8
29M. Ouro-Tagba71'for Gerrit Holtmann6.5
28C. Patino
31L. Sawas81'for Maximilian Wittek7.0

FSV Mainz 05 Substitutes

47R. Nakuzola
5E. Martel63'for Lee Jae-Sung6.2
15L. Maloney
11R. Königsdörffer63'for Phillip Tietz64'6.1
24S. Kawasaki84'for Danny da Costa6.1
17B. Hollerbach84'for Paul Nebel6.3
3F. Gruber
19A. Caci63'for Silvan Widmer7.6
27R. Zentner

Match Stats

VfL BochumFSV Mainz 05
48%Ball Possession52%
5Corner Kicks6
3Yellow Cards1
8Total Shots10
3Shots on Goal5
5Shots off Goal4
7Shots Inside Box6
1Shots Outside Box4
0Blocked Shots1
13Fouls5
0Offsides1
5Goalkeeper Saves1
442Total Passes462
346Passes Accurate365
5Free Kicks12

Team Comparison

VfL BochumVfL Bochum
FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05
1631Elo Rating 1770
0.58Attack 2.16
1.61Defense 0.49
0%Hit Rate 39%
15.6Shots per Game 17.0
4.8Shots on Target 6.5
5.8Corners per Game 3.9
1.5Cards per Game 2.7

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy3.06 goals
📈BTTS Trend60% in H2H
📉Home Underperforming
⚠️Away Rotation Risk60%

Game State Tendencies

VfL BochumVfL Bochum
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.4 vs 0.1 in first half)
FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.2 vs 0.9 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

VfL BochumVfL Bochum2Wins · 20%
Draws220%
FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 056Wins · 60%
3.4Avg Goals
60%Both teams scored6 of 10
60%3+ goals6 of 10

Previous meetings

Bundesliga10/05/2025
VfL BochumFSV Mainz 05
14
Bundesliga11/01/2025
FSV Mainz 05VfL Bochum
20
Bundesliga16/03/2024
FSV Mainz 05Vfl Bochum
20
Bundesliga27/10/2023
Vfl BochumFSV Mainz 05
22
Bundesliga28/01/2023
FSV Mainz 05Vfl Bochum
52
Bundesliga06/08/2022
Vfl BochumFSV Mainz 05
12
DFB Pokal18/01/2022
Vfl BochumFSV Mainz 05
31
Bundesliga15/01/2022
FSV Mainz 05Vfl Bochum
10
Bundesliga21/08/2021
Vfl BochumFSV Mainz 05
20
DFB Pokal23/12/2020
FSV Mainz 05Vfl Bochum
0232

Recent Form

VfL BochumVfL Bochum
4W2D4L
23/10/2026
VfL BochumVfL Wolfsburg
11
D
17/10/2026
1. FC KaiserslauternVfL Bochum
20
L
11/10/2026
VfL BochumArminia Bielefeld
01
L
02/10/2026
VfL BochumVfL Osnabrück
41
W
20/09/2026
Hannover 96VfL Bochum
21
L
12/09/2026
VfL BochumSpVgg Greuther Fürth
11
D
05/09/2026
Dynamo DresdenVfL Bochum
12
W
28/08/2026
VfL BochumVfL Osnabrück
01
L
23/08/2026
SpVgg Greuther FürthVfL Bochum
12
W
14/08/2026
Eintracht BraunschweigVfL Bochum
01
W

Referee Profile

Michael Bacher129 matches

5.50Cards per match
5.30Yellow cards per match
0.19Red cards per match
24.9Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Michael Bacher5.50
Other referees4.59

5.50 cards a match, 0.91 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.59).

Cards come from 113 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

Bracket

Round of 64
Round of 32
Waldhof Mannheim00
1. FC Kaiserslautern01
After extra time
Preußen Münster1
Karlsruher SC2
SC St. Tönis0
Eintracht Frankfurt11
SV Wehen0
Bayer Leverkusen4
Erzgebirge Aue0
1899 Hoffenheim4
MSV Duisburg1
SV Elversberg3
Hemelingen1
Hannover 969
Lüneburger SK Hansa0
Werder Bremen3
Eintracht Trier0
RB Leipzig6
TSV 1860 München0
Holstein Kiel2
SSV Jeddeloh5
1. FC Heidenheim2
Bahlinger SC0
1. FC Magdeburg4
Westfalia Rhynern0
Dynamo Dresden6
FC Carl Zeiss Jena1
SV Darmstadt 982
Krieschow0
FSV Mainz 059
Schott Mainz0
Borussia Mönchengladbach5
Phönix Lübeck2
SC Paderborn 074
Rot-Weiß Essen2
FC St. Pauli0
Altglienicke25
VfL Wolfsburg26
On penalties
Verl0
Hamburger SV3
Würzburger Kickers1
1. FC Köln2
HEBC0
Borussia Dortmund5
VfL Osnabrück1
Bayern München4

About the VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05 forecast

As a knockout tie in the DFB Pokal, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About DFB Pokal

More DFB Pokal fixtures and forecasts are on the DFB Pokal Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.