Greece vs Netherlands Prediction

Greece
2-2
Finished
HT 2-0
Netherlands
Toumba Stadium, Thessaloniki·Marco Guida 01/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.0 / 10
Value Analysis
68%Trust
Home Cards
Home Cards Under 2.5
1.52
SignalGOODModel68%SurpriseMediumGap+4.0%
Greece Rest
4 days
Netherlands Rest
4 days

Greece vs Netherlands: the result in context

Greece and Netherlands drew 2-2 in the UEFA Nations League on 1 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Netherlands tend to win more corners, 6.9 a game to 4.1 for Greece.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
29%3.30
X
26%3.65
2
45%2.10
Double Chance
1X
55%1.74
X2
71%1.30
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%1.55
No
45%2.30
Goals
Projected Goals: 0.94 + 1.12 = 2.06
Over 1.5
78%1.18
Over 2.5
55%1.68
Over 3.5
35%2.61
Under 1.5
22%4.45
Under 2.5
45%2.23
Under 3.5
65%1.47
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.3 + 5.3 = 9.7
Over 8.5
56%1.80
Over 9.5
46%2.26
Over 10.5
34%3.13
Under 8.5
44%1.94
Under 9.5
54%1.55
Under 10.5
66%1.29
Cards
Projected Cards: 2 + 1.8 = 3.8
Over 3.5
52%1.83
Over 4.5
32%2.76
Under 3.5
48%1.84
Under 4.5
68%1.42

Match Events

18'Christos Tzolis INGeorgios Masouras out
23'Fotis IoannidisAssist: Georgios Masouras
45'Quinten Timber INRyan Gravenberch out
45'Guus Til INTijjani Reijnders out
45'Ruben van Bommel INNoa Lang out
45+2'Georgios MasourasAssist: Fotis Ioannidis
59'Virgil van DijkAssist: Joey Veerman
66'Goal cancelledDenzel Dumfries
67'Konstantinos TzolakisTime wasting
70'Mexx Meerdink INJoshua Zirkzee out
71'Fotis Ioannidis INAndrews Tetteh out
71'Vangelis Pavlidis INChristos Zafeiris out
76'Manolis SaliakasFoul
76'Noa LangArgument
78'Jurriën Timber INGjivai Zechiel out
83'Athanasios Androutsos INAnastasios Douvikas out
83'Konstantinos Karetsas INGiannis Michailidis out
89'Tijjani Reijnders

Lineups

Greece
4-4-2Coach: I. Jovanović
Netherlands
4-3-3Coach: Xavi
Avg rating6.45
Avg rating6.74
K. Tzolakis6.012K. Tzolakis
M. Saliakas6.217M. Saliakas
K. Mavropanos6.84K. Mavropanos
P. Retsos6.65P. Retsos
K. Tsimikas6.121K. Tsimikas
K. Karetsas6.119K. Karetsas
D. Kourbelis6.26D. Kourbelis
T. Androutsos6.115T. Androutsos
C. Tzolis6.410C. Tzolis
V. Pavlidis6.314V. Pavlidis
F. Ioannidis8.38F. Ioannidis
B. Verbruggen6.41B. Verbruggen
D. Dumfries6.522D. Dumfries
J. Timber6.712J. Timber
V. van Dijk7.64V. van Dijk
M. van de Ven6.515M. van de Ven
J. Veerman7.718J. Veerman
G. Til6.116G. Til
Q. Timber6.66Q. Timber
C. Summerville6.67C. Summerville
M. Meerdink6.317M. Meerdink
R. van Bommel6.011R. van Bommel

Greece Substitutes

11C. Kostoulas
9T. Douvikas83'for Athanasios Androutsos6.5
3K. Koulierakis
22G. Kiriakopoulos
13C. Mandas
7G. Masouras18'for Christos Tzolis45+2'7.7
18G. Michailidis83'for Konstantinos Karetsas5.8
23C. Mouzakitis
16A. Tetteh71'for Fotis Ioannidis6.5
2T. Tsapras
1O. Vlachodimos
20C. Zafeiris71'for Vangelis Pavlidis5.9

Netherlands Substitutes

9J. Zirkzee70'for Mexx Meerdink6.8
21G. Zechiël78'for Jurriën Timber6.2
19K. Taylor
13R. Roefs
14T. Reijnders45'for Guus Til89'8.2
10N. Lang45'for Ruben van Bommel76'7.2
20T. Koopmeiners
3J. Hato
8R. Gravenberch45'for Quinten Timber6.4
2J. Frimpong
5N. Aké
23M. Flekken

Match Stats

GreeceNetherlands
29%Ball Possession71%
6Corner Kicks8
2Yellow Cards0
8Total Shots19
4Shots on Goal5
2Shots off Goal5
8Shots Inside Box14
0Shots Outside Box5
2Blocked Shots9
6Fouls7
3Offsides4
3Goalkeeper Saves2
248Total Passes617
180Passes Accurate549
7Free Kicks6

Team Comparison

GreeceGreece
NetherlandsNetherlands
1652Elo Rating 1820
0.98Attack 1.69
2.38Defense 1.77
36%Hit Rate 46%
10.9Shots per Game 19.6
3.6Shots on Target 6.5
4.1Corners per Game 6.9
2.4Cards per Game 1.0

Game State Tendencies

GreeceGreece
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
NetherlandsNetherlands
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.2 vs 0.5 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 2 meetings, all competitions

GreeceGreece0Wins · 0%
Draws00%
NetherlandsNetherlands2Wins · 100%
2.0Avg Goals
0%Both teams scored0 of 2
50%3+ goals1 of 2

Previous meetings

Euro Championship - Qualification16/10/2023
GreeceNetherlands
01
Euro Championship - Qualification07/09/2023
NetherlandsGreece
30

Recent Form

GreeceGreece
4W2D4L
27/09/2026
GermanyGreece
01
W
24/09/2026
SerbiaGreece
12
W
07/06/2026
GreeceItaly
01
L
04/06/2026
SwedenGreece
22
D
18/11/2025
BelarusGreece
00
D
15/11/2025
GreeceScotland
32
W
12/10/2025
DenmarkGreece
31
L
09/10/2025
ScotlandGreece
31
L
08/09/2025
GreeceDenmark
03
L
05/09/2025
GreeceBelarus
51
W
NetherlandsNetherlands
5W3D2L
27/09/2026
SerbiaNetherlands
12
W
24/09/2026
NetherlandsGermany
11
D
30/06/2026
NetherlandsMorocco
2131
L
26/06/2026
TunisiaNetherlands
13
W
20/06/2026
NetherlandsSweden
51
W
14/06/2026
NetherlandsJapan
22
D
08/06/2026
NetherlandsUzbekistan
21
W
03/06/2026
NetherlandsAlgeria
01
L
17/11/2025
NetherlandsLithuania
40
W
14/11/2025
PolandNetherlands
11
D

Referee Profile

Marco Guida163 matches

3.97Cards per match
3.84Yellow cards per match
0.13Red cards per match
24.1Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Marco Guida3.97
Other referees4.44

3.97 cards a match, 0.47 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.44).

Cards come from 153 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

UEFA Nations League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1NetherlandsNetherlands42207:5+28WDWD
2GreeceGreece42205:3+28DDWW
3GermanyGermany41213:2+15DWLD
4SerbiaSerbia40043:8-50LLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1NetherlandsNetherlands47:58
2GreeceGreece45:38
3GermanyGermany43:25
4SerbiaSerbia43:80

About the Greece vs Netherlands forecast

This is a UEFA Nations League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Greece and Netherlands in the UEFA Nations League table

In the UEFA Nations League table, Greece (2nd) and Netherlands (1st) are level on 8 points. League goal record so far: Greece 5-3, Netherlands 7-5. The full standings are on the UEFA Nations League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Greece and Netherlands have met only 2 times recently, averaging 2.0 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.