Danubio vs Cerro Largo Prediction
Uruguay · Clausura - 9
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
3.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
73%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.24
SignalGOODModel43%SurpriseHighGap-7.8%
Danubio Rest
6 days
Cerro Largo Rest
3 days
Danubio vs Cerro Largo: result, form and history
Danubio beat Cerro Largo 2-1 in the Primera División on 4 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Their 8 previous meetings averaged 2.1 goals, with both teams scoring in 4 of them.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
145%2.00
X29%3.10
226%3.70
Double Chance
1X74%1.24
X255%1.72
Both Teams to Score
Yes48%2.00
No52%1.72
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.29 + 1.04 = 2.33
Over 1.567%1.40
Over 2.541%2.30
Over 3.521%4.33
Under 1.533%2.75
Under 2.559%1.60
Under 3.579%1.20
Corners
Corner forecasts not available for this match
Cards
Card forecasts not available for this match
Match Events
1'Tomas Bernardo Cavanagh
15'Mateo peralta
26'Pedro Gonzalez
27'Mateo peralta(Penalty)
30'Santiago Marcel·Perez
42'Alexis Sebastián Segovia
46'Pedro Gonzalez INLukas gonzalez out
46'Tomas Bernardo Cavanagh INGonzalo Rodríguez out
59'Lucas Piriz INDiego Daguerre out
60'Diego Daguerre
61'alexis piegas
61'Ivan Rossi INJ. Millán out
61'Benjamin Azambuja INSebastián Fernández out
68'Sebastián Rodriguez INEnzo Cabrera out
70'J. Millán
71'nicolas ramos INRobert Ergas out
71'Alexis Sebastián Segovia INMario Garcia out
83'Santiago Marcel·Perez INBorys Barone out
90+1'Gonzalo Rodríguez
90+4'
Lineups
DanubioCerro Largo
4-4-2Coach: Danielo Núñez
1M. Goicoechea
4M. Rinaldi
19M. Brasil
31T. Cavanagh
6L. Sosa
16I. Rossi
38J. Trasante
10M. Peralta
8S. Rodríguez
21B. Azambuja
77B. Tomatis
12P. González
17A. Hernández
3A. Piegas
28N. Ramos
20S. Franca
29B. Lozano
15A. Assis
5S. Marcel
37A. Segovia
10A. Michele Pandiani
9L. PirizDanubio Substitutes
80C. Tizón
18F. Balatti
7E. Cabrera68'for Sebastián Rodriguez
30S. Fernández61'for Benjamin Azambuja
20M. Ferreira
15E. Figueroa
29M. Jourdan
32K. Martínez
5J. Millán61'for Ivan Rossi70'
3G. Rodriguez46'for Tomas Bernardo Cavanagh90+1'
Cerro Largo Substitutes
13Borys Santiago Barone Grillo83'for Santiago Marcel·Perez
11Santiago Brun
18Diego Daguerre59'for Lucas Piriz60'
26E. de León
6R. Ergas71'for nicolas ramos
8M. García71'for Alexis Sebastián Segovia
24L. González46'for Pedro Gonzalez
25E. Jourdan
19A. Prado
7G. Viera
Match Stats
DanubioCerro Largo 51%Ball Possession49%
4Corner Kicks3
5Yellow Cards4
13Total Shots10
3Shots on Goal4
10Shots off Goal6
0Blocked Shots0
0Free Kicks0
Team Comparison
DanubioCerro Largo1508Elo Rating 1457
1.98Attack 0.54
2.50Defense 1.98
66%Hit Rate 14%
8.5Shots per Game 6.8
3.1Shots on Target 1.9
4.1Corners per Game 4.8
3.1Cards per Game 3.2
AI Insights
📊Home Overperforming
Game State Tendencies
Danubio- Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
- Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.3 vs 0.7 in second half)
Cerro Largo- Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
Head to Head
Last 8 meetings, all competitions
Danubio1Wins · 13%Draws562%
Cerro Largo2Wins · 25%
2Wins · 25%2.1Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored4 of 8
25%3+ goals2 of 8
Previous meetings
30/03/2026Cerro LargoDanubio20
06/03/2025Cerro LargoDanubio4232
15/02/2025DanubioCerro Largo00
09/06/2024Cerro LargoDanubio22
20/04/2024DanubioCerro Largo11
18/02/2023Cerro LargoDanubio10
12/06/2022DanubioCerro Largo11
08/05/2022DanubioCerro Largo20
Recent Form
Danubio1W5D4L
27/09/2026
Defensor SportingDanubioDanubio
Wanderers
JuventudDanubioDanubio
Racing Montevideo
Defensor SportingDanubio10
L24/09/2026Danubio
Penarol
20/09/2026DanubioPenarol11
DDanubioWanderers11
D13/09/2026JuventudDanubio11
D05/09/2026DanubioPenarol
DanubioPenarol04
L02/09/2026
Atletico TorqueDanubio
Atletico TorqueDanubio20
L29/08/2026
ProgresoDanubio
ProgresoDanubio10
L26/08/2026Danubio
Atenas
23/08/2026DanubioAtenas32
WDanubioRacing Montevideo00
D15/08/2026
Boston RiverDanubio
Boston RiverDanubio00
DCerro Largo1W5D4L
30/09/2026Cerro Largo
Rentistas
26/09/2026Cerro LargoRentistas10
WCerro Largo
Club Nacional02
L19/09/2026
Deportivo MaldonadoCerro Largo20
L13/09/2026Cerro Largo
Central Espanol
10/09/2026Cerro LargoCentral Espanol00
DCerro LargoDefensor Sporting11
D05/09/2026Atletico TorqueCerro Largo
Atletico TorqueCerro Largo21
L31/08/2026Cerro Largo
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro LargoLiverpool Montevideo11
D26/08/2026
Plaza ColoniaCerro Largo
22/08/2026Plaza ColoniaCerro Largo21
LCerro LargoDefensor Sporting11
D16/08/2026WanderersCerro Largo
WanderersCerro Largo11
DReferee Profile
5.36Cards per match
5.05Yellow cards per match
0.31Red cards per match
23.1Fouls per match
Strictness
Stricter than 93% of referees analysed
Model estimates, weighted toward the competition average while the sample is small.
Full referee statsLeague Table
Primera: Tabla Anual
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 34 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 51:27 | +24 | 64 | DLWLW |
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 54:32 | +22 | 62 | DWWLW |
| 3 | Atletico Torque | 34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 57:40 | +17 | 60 | DLDLL |
| 4 | Club Nacional | 34 | 18 | 4 | 12 | 51:41 | +10 | 58 | WLLWW |
| 5 | Racing Montevideo | 34 | 15 | 12 | 7 | 42:30 | +12 | 57 | DWWWD |
| 6 | Liverpool Montevideo | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 45:31 | +14 | 56 | LWLDD |
| 7 | Wanderers | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 41:43 | -2 | 50 | LLLWL |
| 8 |  Albion FC | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 47:44 | +3 | 46 | WWDDW |
| 9 | Juventud | 34 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 37:41 | -4 | 41 | DWLLL |
| 10 | Central Espanol | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 33:47 | -14 | 38 | LDWWD |
| 11 | Cerro Largo | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 32:38 | -6 | 37 | LDDWL |
| 12 | Boston River | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 33:45 | -12 | 37 | WLWWL |
| 13 |  Cerro | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 28:51 | -23 | 37 | DDWLW |
| 14 | Defensor Sporting | 34 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 33:43 | -10 | 36 | DWLDD |
| 15 | Progreso | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 31:47 | -16 | 35 | WLLDD |
| 16 | Danubio | 34 | 6 | 14 | 14 | 28:43 | -15 | 32 | DDDLD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 34 | 51:27 | 64 |
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 34 | 54:32 | 62 |
| 3 | Atletico Torque | 34 | 57:40 | 60 |
| 4 | Club Nacional | 34 | 51:41 | 58 |
| 5 | Racing Montevideo | 34 | 42:30 | 57 |
| 6 | Liverpool Montevideo | 34 | 45:31 | 56 |
| 7 | Wanderers | 34 | 41:43 | 50 |
| 8 | Albion FC | 34 | 47:44 | 46 |
| 9 | Juventud | 34 | 37:41 | 41 |
| 10 | Central Espanol | 34 | 33:47 | 38 |
| 11 | Cerro Largo | 34 | 32:38 | 37 |
| 12 | Boston River | 34 | 33:45 | 37 |
| 13 | Cerro | 34 | 28:51 | 37 |
| 14 | Defensor Sporting | 34 | 33:43 | 36 |
| 15 | Progreso | 34 | 31:47 | 35 |
| 16 | Danubio | 34 | 28:43 | 32 |
Primera: Promedios
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 71 | 43 | 14 | 14 | 117:61 | +56 | 143 | DLWLW |
| 2 | Club Nacional | 71 | 42 | 14 | 15 | 127:74 | +53 | 137 | WLLWW |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 54:32 | +22 | 62 | DWWLW |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 71 | 33 | 22 | 16 | 96:68 | +28 | 121 | LWLDD |
| 5 | Racing Montevideo | 71 | 29 | 23 | 19 | 81:68 | +13 | 110 | DWWWD |
| 6 | Atletico Torque | 71 | 31 | 16 | 24 | 111:91 | +20 | 109 | DLDLL |
| 7 | Juventud | 71 | 28 | 18 | 25 | 82:80 | +2 | 102 | DWLLL |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 71 | 26 | 19 | 26 | 75:81 | -6 | 97 | DWLDD |
| 9 | Albion FC | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 47:44 | +3 | 46 | WWDDW |
| 10 | Boston River | 71 | 24 | 20 | 27 | 83:84 | -1 | 92 | WLWWL |
| 11 | Cerro Largo | 71 | 21 | 23 | 27 | 73:79 | -6 | 86 | LDDWL |
| 12 | Cerro | 71 | 22 | 18 | 31 | 61:93 | -32 | 83 | DDWLW |
| 13 | Wanderers | 71 | 20 | 21 | 30 | 66:90 | -24 | 81 | LLLWL |
| 14 | Central Espanol | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 33:47 | -14 | 38 | LDWWD |
| 15 | Danubio | 71 | 16 | 27 | 28 | 69:84 | -15 | 75 | DDDLD |
| 16 | Progreso | 71 | 20 | 14 | 37 | 69:107 | -38 | 74 | WLLDD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 71 | 117:61 | 143 |
| 2 | Club Nacional | 71 | 127:74 | 137 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 34 | 54:32 | 62 |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 71 | 96:68 | 121 |
| 5 | Racing Montevideo | 71 | 81:68 | 110 |
| 6 | Atletico Torque | 71 | 111:91 | 109 |
| 7 | Juventud | 71 | 82:80 | 102 |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 71 | 75:81 | 97 |
| 9 | Albion FC | 34 | 47:44 | 46 |
| 10 | Boston River | 71 | 83:84 | 92 |
| 11 | Cerro Largo | 71 | 73:79 | 86 |
| 12 | Cerro | 71 | 61:93 | 83 |
| 13 | Wanderers | 71 | 66:90 | 81 |
| 14 | Central Espanol | 34 | 33:47 | 38 |
| 15 | Danubio | 71 | 69:84 | 75 |
| 16 | Progreso | 71 | 69:107 | 74 |
Primera: Torneo Intermedio — Group 1
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12:3 | +9 | 16 | DLWLW |
| 2 | Cerro Largo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7:5 | +2 | 11 | LDDWL |
| 3 | Racing Montevideo | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4:3 | +1 | 10 | DWWWD |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5:5 | 0 | 9 | LWLDD |
| 5 | Central Espanol | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4:4 | 0 | 9 | LDWWD |
| 6 | Cerro | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6:10 | -4 | 9 | DDWLW |
| 7 | Defensor Sporting | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6:9 | -3 | 6 | DWLDD |
| 8 | Boston River | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5:10 | -5 | 5 | WLWWL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 7 | 12:3 | 16 |
| 2 | Cerro Largo | 7 | 7:5 | 11 |
| 3 | Racing Montevideo | 7 | 4:3 | 10 |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 7 | 5:5 | 9 |
| 5 | Central Espanol | 7 | 4:4 | 9 |
| 6 | Cerro | 7 | 6:10 | 9 |
| 7 | Defensor Sporting | 7 | 6:9 | 6 |
| 8 | Boston River | 7 | 5:10 | 5 |
Primera: Torneo Intermedio — Group 2
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wanderers | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12:4 | +8 | 15 | LLLWL |
| 2 | Club Nacional | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8:8 | 0 | 13 | WLLWW |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12:6 | +6 | 12 | DWWLW |
| 4 | Atletico Torque | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11:11 | 0 | 12 | DLDLL |
| 5 | Juventud | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:11 | -3 | 8 | DWLLL |
| 6 | Albion FC | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6:8 | -2 | 6 | WWDDW |
| 7 | Progreso | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6:11 | -5 | 6 | WLLDD |
| 8 | Danubio | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5:9 | -4 | 4 | DDDLD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wanderers | 7 | 12:4 | 15 |
| 2 | Club Nacional | 7 | 8:8 | 13 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 7 | 12:6 | 12 |
| 4 | Atletico Torque | 7 | 11:11 | 12 |
| 5 | Juventud | 7 | 8:11 | 8 |
| 6 | Albion FC | 7 | 6:8 | 6 |
| 7 | Progreso | 7 | 6:11 | 6 |
| 8 | Danubio | 7 | 5:9 | 4 |
Primera: Apertura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing Montevideo | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 23:14 | +9 | 31 | DWWWD |
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 24:16 | +8 | 29 | DWWLW |
| 3 | Albion FC | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 26:16 | +10 | 28 | WWDDW |
| 4 | Penarol | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 23:16 | +7 | 27 | DLWLW |
| 5 | Central Espanol | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 23:22 | +1 | 24 | LDWWD |
| 6 | Atletico Torque | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 22:16 | +6 | 23 | DLDLL |
| 7 | Club Nacional | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 26:21 | +5 | 22 | WLLWW |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 13:11 | +2 | 21 | DWLDD |
| 9 | Liverpool Montevideo | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 20:18 | +2 | 20 | LWLDD |
| 10 | Wanderers | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 16:21 | -5 | 20 | LLLWL |
| 11 | Danubio | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 17:21 | -4 | 18 | DDDLD |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 16:19 | -3 | 17 | LDDWL |
| 13 | Boston River | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 14:20 | -6 | 17 | WLWWL |
| 14 | Juventud | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 17:22 | -5 | 15 | DWLLL |
| 15 | Progreso | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 12:23 | -11 | 10 | WLLDD |
| 16 | Cerro | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 8:24 | -16 | 10 | DDWLW |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing Montevideo | 15 | 23:14 | 31 |
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 15 | 24:16 | 29 |
| 3 | Albion FC | 15 | 26:16 | 28 |
| 4 | Penarol | 15 | 23:16 | 27 |
| 5 | Central Espanol | 15 | 23:22 | 24 |
| 6 | Atletico Torque | 15 | 22:16 | 23 |
| 7 | Club Nacional | 15 | 26:21 | 22 |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 15 | 13:11 | 21 |
| 9 | Liverpool Montevideo | 15 | 20:18 | 20 |
| 10 | Wanderers | 15 | 16:21 | 20 |
| 11 | Danubio | 15 | 17:21 | 18 |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 15 | 16:19 | 17 |
| 13 | Boston River | 15 | 14:20 | 17 |
| 14 | Juventud | 15 | 17:22 | 15 |
| 15 | Progreso | 15 | 12:23 | 10 |
| 16 | Cerro | 15 | 8:24 | 10 |
Primera: Clausura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool Montevideo | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 20:8 | +12 | 27 | LWLDD |
| 2 | Atletico Torque | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 24:13 | +11 | 25 | DLDLL |
| 3 | Club Nacional | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 17:12 | +5 | 23 | WLLWW |
| 4 | Deportivo Maldonado | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 18:10 | +8 | 21 | DWWLW |
| 5 | Penarol | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 16:8 | +8 | 21 | DLWLW |
| 6 | Progreso | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 13:13 | 0 | 19 | WLLDD |
| 7 | Juventud | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 12:8 | +4 | 18 | DWLLL |
| 8 | Cerro | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 14:17 | -3 | 18 | DDWLW |
| 9 | Racing Montevideo | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 15:13 | +2 | 16 | DWWWD |
| 10 | Boston River | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 14:15 | -1 | 15 | WLWWL |
| 11 | Wanderers | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13:18 | -5 | 15 | LLLWL |
| 12 | Albion FC | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 15:20 | -5 | 12 | WWDDW |
| 13 | Danubio | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 6:13 | -7 | 10 | DDDLD |
| 14 | Cerro Largo | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 9:14 | -5 | 9 | LDDWL |
| 15 | Defensor Sporting | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 14:23 | -9 | 9 | DWLDD |
| 16 | Central Espanol | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 6:21 | -15 | 5 | LDWWD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool Montevideo | 12 | 20:8 | 27 |
| 2 | Atletico Torque | 12 | 24:13 | 25 |
| 3 | Club Nacional | 12 | 17:12 | 23 |
| 4 | Deportivo Maldonado | 12 | 18:10 | 21 |
| 5 | Penarol | 12 | 16:8 | 21 |
| 6 | Progreso | 12 | 13:13 | 19 |
| 7 | Juventud | 12 | 12:8 | 18 |
| 8 | Cerro | 12 | 14:17 | 18 |
| 9 | Racing Montevideo | 12 | 15:13 | 16 |
| 10 | Boston River | 12 | 14:15 | 15 |
| 11 | Wanderers | 12 | 13:18 | 15 |
| 12 | Albion FC | 12 | 15:20 | 12 |
| 13 | Danubio | 12 | 6:13 | 10 |
| 14 | Cerro Largo | 12 | 9:14 | 9 |
| 15 | Defensor Sporting | 12 | 14:23 | 9 |
| 16 | Central Espanol | 12 | 6:21 | 5 |
PromotionRelegation
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This match
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- Liverpool Montevideo vs Progreso 03/10/26
- Albion FC vs Defensor Sporting 03/10/26
- Deportivo Maldonado vs Central Espanol 03/10/26
- Racing Montevideo vs Penarol 05/10/26
- Atletico Torque vs Danubio 09/10/26
- Deportivo Maldonado vs Liverpool Montevideo 10/10/26
- Defensor Sporting vs Cerro 10/10/26
About the Danubio vs Cerro Largo forecast
Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Danubio and Cerro Largo in the Primera División table
In the Primera División table, Cerro Largo are 11th and Danubio 16th, 5 points apart. League goal record so far: Danubio 28-43, Cerro Largo 32-38. The full standings are on the Primera División Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
Danubio have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.