Lille vs Estac Troyes Prediction

Lille
2-0
Finished
HT 1-0
Estac Troyes
Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille· Romain Lissorgue 13/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
Value Analysis
74%Trust
Total Cards
Cards Under 4.5
1.38
SignalGOODModel74%RiskMediumGap+4.4%
Lille Rest
4 days
Estac Troyes Rest
7 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
71%1.41
X
19%4.75
2
10%7.40
Double Chance
1X
89%1.10
X2
29%2.81
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%1.81
No
45%1.91
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.94 + 0.95 = 2.89
Over 1.5
81%1.20
Over 2.5
61%1.66
Over 3.5
37%2.60
Under 1.5
19%4.30
Under 2.5
39%2.25
Under 3.5
63%1.47
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.3 + 3.8 = 9.1
Over 8.5
51%1.53
Over 9.5
40%1.94
Over 10.5
30%2.50
Under 8.5
49%2.28
Under 9.5
60%1.83
Under 10.5
70%1.47
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.6 + 1.8 = 3.4
Over 3.5
45%2.10
Over 4.5
26%2.96
Under 3.5
55%1.71
Under 4.5
74%1.38

Match Events

3'Goal cancelledHákon Arnar Haraldsson
18'Tiago SantosAssist: Dilane Bakwa
45'Lucas Maronnier INNoah Donkor out
61'Hákon Arnar Haraldsson INMaurits Kjaergaard out
71'Basar Onal INGaëtan Perrin out
71'Ayase Ueda INOlivier Giroud out
71'Dilane Bakwa INEthan Mbappe out
75'Mouhamed Diop INIron Gomis out
75'Kandet Diawara INTimothee Nkada out
80'Antoine Mille INYacouba Koné out
80'Hugo Picard INRenaud Ripart out
82'Olivier GiroudFoul
86'Ngal'ayel Mukau INBenjamin André out
90+3'Ethan MbappeAssist: Maurits Kjaergaard

Lineups

Lille
4-2-3-1Coach: Davide Ancelotti
Estac Troyes
4-2-3-1Coach: S. Dumont
B. Özer1B. ÖzerB. Özer
Tiago Santos22T. SantosTiago Santos
N. Ngoy3N. NgoyN. Ngoy
Alexsandro Ribeiro4A. RibeiroAlexsandro Ribeiro
R. Perraud15R. PerraudR. Perraud
N. Mukau17N. MukauN. Mukau
N. Bentaleb6N. BentalebN. Bentaleb
D. Bakwa7D. BakwaD. Bakwa
H. Haraldsson10H. HaraldssonH. Haraldsson
B. Önal19B. ÖnalB. Önal
A. Ueda18A. UedaA. Ueda
P. Beach33P. BeachP. Beach
L. Maronnier2L. MaronnierL. Maronnier
A. Monfray6A. MonfrayA. Monfray
M. Diaz4M. DiazM. Diaz
A. Ouzenadji3A. OuzenadjiA. Ouzenadji
M. Diop8M. DiopM. Diop
D. Karim29D. KarimD. Karim
K. Diawara7K. DiawaraK. Diawara
A. Mille17A. MilleA. Mille
H. Picard22H. PicardH. Picard
J. Le Douaron9J. Le DouaronJ. Le Douaron

Lille Substitutes

21B. AndréM
12O. GillG
9O. GiroudF
14M. KjærgaardM
8E. MbappéM
23T. NianzouD
28G. PerrinF
11O. SahraouiF
24C. VerdonkD

Estac Troyes Substitutes

36I. SoukounaM
41Enisio CarneiroD
31Noah DonkorD
11I. GomisM
40H. KonatéG
39Y. KoneF
23T. NkadaF
20R. RipartF
34Lassana SimakhaD

Match Stats

LilleEstac Troyes
63%Ball Possession37%
2Corner Kicks5
1Yellow Cards0
13Total Shots8
6Shots on Goal1
5Shots off Goal6
11Shots Inside Box5
2Shots Outside Box3
2Blocked Shots1
11Fouls20
3Offsides2
1Goalkeeper Saves4
628Total Passes339
558Passes Accurate267
17Free Kicks11

Team Comparison

LilleLille
Estac TroyesEstac Troyes
1842Elo Rating 1685
1.81Attack 0.85
1.98Defense 0.75
61%Hit Rate 19%
9.6Shots per Game 13.2
4.8Shots on Target 2.8
2.5Corners per Game 7.1
1.1Cards per Game 0.4

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+157 Elo
High Goal Expectancy2.9 goals
📈BTTS Trend64% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

LilleLille
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.2 vs 0.6 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Estac TroyesEstac Troyes
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.6 vs 0.2 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Based on 5 historical meetings

Lille 56%Draw 27%17% Estac Troyes
3.22Avg Goals
64%BTTS Rate
54%Over 2.5

League Table

Ligue 1 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1MonacoMonaco54108:3+513WDWWW
2Paris FCParis FC53208:3+511WDWWD
3LilleLille43107:2+510WWDW
4RennesRennes43108:5+310WWWD
5LyonLyon42206:2+48DWDW
6StrasbourgStrasbourg521210:1007LDWWL
7Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 2941216:605LWDD
8Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain41216:605WLDD
9LorientLorient41214:405DWLD
10LensLens51139:904LDLLW
11AngersAngers41124:5-14DLWL
12Estac TroyesEstac Troyes41124:9-54LLWD
13MarseilleMarseille41036:603LLLW
14Le MansLe Mans40317:8-13DDLD
15AuxerreAuxerre41035:11-63WLLL
16Le HavreLe Havre40222:4-22DLDL
17ToulouseToulouse40224:7-32DLDL
18NiceNice40221:5-42LDLD
#TeamMPGPts
1MonacoMonaco58:313
2Paris FCParis FC58:311
3LilleLille47:210
4RennesRennes48:510
5LyonLyon46:28
6StrasbourgStrasbourg510:107
7Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 2946:65
8Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain46:65
9LorientLorient44:45
10LensLens59:94
11AngersAngers44:54
12Estac TroyesEstac Troyes44:94
13MarseilleMarseille46:63
14Le MansLe Mans47:83
15AuxerreAuxerre45:113
16Le HavreLe Havre42:42
17ToulouseToulouse44:72
18NiceNice41:52
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Lille vs Estac Troyes Prediction

Our AI model has analysed this Ligue 1 fixture using team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history. The forecasts cover six independent markets - each probability is a separate model calculation, not derived from the match winner result.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About Ligue 1

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Key Factors for This Match

Lille have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. Lille and Estac Troyes have met 5 times recently, averaging 3.22 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.