Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain Prediction
World · League Stage - 2
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
6.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
76%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.34
SignalHIGHModel55%SurpriseMediumGap+1.5%
Value Analysis
79%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.34
SignalSTRONGModel79%SurpriseMediumGap+5.6%
Manchester City Rest
3 days
Paris Saint Germain Rest
4 days
Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain: the result in context
Paris Saint Germain beat Manchester City 4-2 in the UEFA Champions League on 14 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Manchester City have had the better of this fixture, winning 3 of the 5 previous meetings, which averaged 3.2 goals a game. Manchester City tend to win more corners, 6.6 a game to 4.0 for Paris Saint Germain.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
152%2.04
X24%4.05
224%3.30
Double Chance
1X76%1.34
X248%1.80
Both Teams to Score
Yes69%1.40
No31%2.80
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.31 + 1.16 = 3.47
Over 1.583%1.10
Over 2.566%1.41
Over 3.549%2.06
Under 1.517%5.97
Under 2.534%2.77
Under 3.551%1.79
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.6 + 3.9 = 9.5
Over 8.561%1.63
Over 9.543%2.06
Over 10.533%2.68
Under 8.539%2.10
Under 9.557%1.68
Under 10.567%1.37
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.9 + 2.1 = 4
Over 3.557%1.91
Over 4.537%2.75
Under 3.543%1.80
Under 4.563%1.42
Match Events
13'Désiré DoueAssist: Fabián Ruiz
15'Ousmane DembéléAssist: Désiré Doue
32'VitinhaAssist: Warren Zaire-Emery
45'Jeremy Doku INIliman Ndiaye out
45'Rúben Dias INMatheus Nunes out
45'Rayan Cherki INAyyoub Bouaddi out
53'Erling HaalandAssist: Iliman Ndiaye
61'Antoine SemenyoFoul
62'Maghnes AklioucheAssist: Ousmane Dembélé
66'Désiré Doue INKhvicha Kvaratskhelia out
69'Warren Zaire-EmeryFoul
75'Erling HaalandAssist: Ayyoub Bouaddi
76'Ousmane Dembélé INFerrán Torres out
76'Maghnes Akliouche INJoão Neves out
84'Warren Zaire-Emery INLucas Beraldo out
84'Fabián Ruiz INLucas Hernández out
90'Ferrán Torres(Penalty missed)
90'Enzo Fernández INNico O'Reilly out
Lineups
Manchester CityParis Saint Germain
4-3-3Coach: Luis EnriqueAvg ratingAvg rating
1G. Donnarumma
45A. Khusanov
3R. Dias
6M. Guéhi
24J. Gvardiol
5E. Anderson
17E. Fernández
42A. Semenyo
10R. Cherki
11J. Doku
9E. Haaland
39M. Safonov
2A. Hakimi
5Marquinhos
51W. Pacho
25N. Mendes
33W. Zaïre-Emery
17Vitinha
8F. Ruiz
11M. Akliouche
10O. Dembélé
14D. DouéManchester City Substitutes
21R. Aït-Nouri
37Allan
13M. Bettinelli
32A. Bouaddi45'for Rayan Cherki
47P. Foden
8M. Kovačić
82R. Lewis
7I. Ndiaye45'for Jeremy Doku
27Matheus Nunes45'for Rúben Dias
33N. O'Reilly90'for Enzo Fernández
28G. Rulli
22Vitor Nunes
Paris Saint Germain Substitutes
12L. Digne
27Pedro Fernández
22M. Godts
21L. Hernández84'for Fabián Ruiz
7K. Kvaratskhelia66'for Désiré Doue
47Quentin Ndjantou Mbitcha
87João Neves76'for Maghnes Akliouche
9Ferran Torres76'for Ousmane Dembélé
6I. Zabarnyi
80Adam Mouak
4Beraldo84'for Warren Zaire-Emery
30L. Chevalier
Match Stats
Manchester CityParis Saint Germain 54%Ball Possession46%
11Corner Kicks2
1Yellow Cards1
27Total Shots15
9Shots on Goal10
10Shots off Goal3
19Shots Inside Box7
8Shots Outside Box8
8Blocked Shots2
10Fouls11
2Offsides0
6Goalkeeper Saves6
499Total Passes445
423Passes Accurate375
11Free Kicks10
Team Comparison
Manchester CityParis Saint Germain2038Elo Rating 2046
3.63Attack 3.32
1.07Defense 1.54
81%Hit Rate 100%
18.9Shots per Game 21.0
6.5Shots on Target 10.3
6.6Corners per Game 4.0
1.0Cards per Game 0.3
AI Insights
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.47 goals
📈BTTS Trend60% in H2H
💎Value Analysis Identified
📊Home Overperforming
Game State Tendencies
Manchester City- Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
- Scores more in 2nd half (2.2 vs 1.4 in first half)
- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Paris Saint Germain- Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (2.3 vs 1 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Head to Head
Last 5 meetings, all competitions
Manchester City3Wins · 60%Draws00%
Paris Saint Germain2Wins · 40%
2Wins · 40%3.2Avg Goals
60%Both teams scored3 of 5
60%3+ goals3 of 5
Previous meetings
22/01/2025Paris Saint GermainManchester City42
24/11/2021Manchester CityParis Saint Germain21
28/09/2021Paris Saint GermainManchester City20
04/05/2021Manchester CityParis Saint Germain20
28/04/2021Paris Saint GermainManchester City12
Recent Form
Manchester City9W0D1L
11/10/2026
LiverpoolManchester CityManchester City
Sunderland
Manchester UnitedManchester City
FC PortoManchester City
Crystal PalaceManchester CityManchester City
Bournemouth
LiverpoolManchester City03
W20/09/2026Manchester CitySunderland53
W17/09/2026Manchester City
Norwich
13/09/2026Manchester CityNorwich50
WManchester UnitedManchester City01
W08/09/2026FC PortoManchester City02
W05/09/2026Manchester City
Coventry
28/08/2026Manchester CityCoventry10
WCrystal PalaceManchester City14
W23/08/2026Manchester CityBournemouth21
W16/08/2026
ArsenalManchester City
ArsenalManchester City30
L09/08/2026Manchester City
Atletico Madrid
Manchester CityAtletico Madrid31
WParis Saint Germain5W3D2L
10/10/2026Paris Saint Germain
Le Mans
MarseilleParis Saint Germain
Stade Brestois 29Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
Monaco
LilleParis Saint Germain
RennesParis Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
Aston Villa
Paris Saint GermainLe Mans31
W20/09/2026MarseilleParis Saint Germain12
W13/09/2026Stade Brestois 29Paris Saint Germain01
W09/09/2026Paris Saint Germain
Slovan Bratislava
04/09/2026Paris Saint GermainSlovan Bratislava61
WParis Saint GermainMonaco12
L28/08/2026LilleParis Saint Germain22
D23/08/2026RennesParis Saint Germain22
D16/08/2026
LensParis Saint Germain
12/08/2026LensParis Saint Germain10
LParis Saint GermainAston Villa21
W08/08/2026Paris Saint GermainManchester United
Paris Saint GermainManchester United11
DReferee Profile
3.80Cards per match
3.69Yellow cards per match
0.11Red cards per match
21.3Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
3.80 cards a match, 0.45 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.25).
Cards come from 180 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14:5 | +9 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 | Aston Villa | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:3 | +9 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 | Liverpool | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:7 | +5 | 9 | WWW |
| 4 |  Real Madrid | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10:5 | +5 | 9 | WWW |
| 5 |  Real Betis | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7:4 | +3 | 9 | WWW |
| 6 |  VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7:2 | +5 | 7 | DWW |
| 7 | Arsenal | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6:2 | +4 | 7 | DWW |
| 8 |  Barcelona | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11:6 | +5 | 6 | LWW |
| 9 |  Como | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10:5 | +5 | 6 | WLW |
| 10 | Manchester City | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9:5 | +4 | 6 | WLW |
| 11 |  Club Brugge KV | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9:6 | +3 | 6 | WWL |
| 12 |  Sporting CP | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7:4 | +3 | 6 | LWW |
| 13 |  Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:4 | +1 | 6 | WLW |
| 14 |  Bayern München | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10:5 | +5 | 5 | DDW |
| 15 |  AS Roma | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8:5 | +3 | 4 | WLD |
| 16 | Atletico Madrid | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:3 | +1 | 4 | DWL |
| 17 |  Shakhtar Donetsk | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:3 | +1 | 4 | LWD |
| 18 |  PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2:2 | 0 | 4 | WLD |
| 19 |  Villarreal | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8:8 | 0 | 3 | LWL |
| 20 | Manchester United | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:6 | -1 | 3 | LLW |
| 21 |  Inter | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:6 | -1 | 3 | WLL |
| 22 |  Napoli | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:7 | -2 | 3 | WLL |
| 23 |  Galatasaray | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6:9 | -3 | 3 | WLL |
| 24 |  Lask Linz | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6:9 | -3 | 3 | WLL |
| 25 |  Sabah FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:6 | -3 | 3 | LWL |
| 26 |  Feyenoord | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:8 | -4 | 3 | LWL |
| 27 | Lens | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:7 | -4 | 3 | LLW |
| 28 |  Bodo/Glimt | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:9 | -5 | 3 | LWL |
| 29 |  AEK Athens FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:8 | -5 | 3 | LLW |
| 30 |  RB Leipzig | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:8 | -5 | 3 | LWL |
| 31 |  Fenerbahçe | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3:9 | -6 | 2 | DLD |
| 32 |  Slavia Praha | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4:7 | -3 | 1 | DLL |
| 33 |  Viking | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5:9 | -4 | 1 | LDL |
| 34 | FC Porto | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2:6 | -4 | 0 | LLL |
| 35 | Lille | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4:10 | -6 | 0 | LLL |
| 36 | Slovan Bratislava | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1:13 | -12 | 0 | LLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 3 | 14:5 | 9 |
| 2 | Aston Villa | 3 | 12:3 | 9 |
| 3 | Liverpool | 3 | 12:7 | 9 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 3 | 10:5 | 9 |
| 5 | Real Betis | 3 | 7:4 | 9 |
| 6 | VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 7:2 | 7 |
| 7 | Arsenal | 3 | 6:2 | 7 |
| 8 | Barcelona | 3 | 11:6 | 6 |
| 9 | Como | 3 | 10:5 | 6 |
| 10 | Manchester City | 3 | 9:5 | 6 |
| 11 | Club Brugge KV | 3 | 9:6 | 6 |
| 12 | Sporting CP | 3 | 7:4 | 6 |
| 13 | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 5:4 | 6 |
| 14 | Bayern München | 3 | 10:5 | 5 |
| 15 | AS Roma | 3 | 8:5 | 4 |
| 16 | Atletico Madrid | 3 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 17 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 3 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 18 | PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 2:2 | 4 |
| 19 | Villarreal | 3 | 8:8 | 3 |
| 20 | Manchester United | 3 | 5:6 | 3 |
| 21 | Inter | 3 | 5:6 | 3 |
| 22 | Napoli | 3 | 5:7 | 3 |
| 23 | Galatasaray | 3 | 6:9 | 3 |
| 24 | Lask Linz | 3 | 6:9 | 3 |
| 25 | Sabah FC | 3 | 3:6 | 3 |
| 26 | Feyenoord | 3 | 4:8 | 3 |
| 27 | Lens | 3 | 3:7 | 3 |
| 28 | Bodo/Glimt | 3 | 4:9 | 3 |
| 29 | AEK Athens FC | 3 | 3:8 | 3 |
| 30 | RB Leipzig | 3 | 3:8 | 3 |
| 31 | Fenerbahçe | 3 | 3:9 | 2 |
| 32 | Slavia Praha | 3 | 4:7 | 1 |
| 33 | Viking | 3 | 5:9 | 1 |
| 34 | FC Porto | 3 | 2:6 | 0 |
| 35 | Lille | 3 | 4:10 | 0 |
| 36 | Slovan Bratislava | 3 | 1:13 | 0 |
Champions League
Bracket
Qualifying Round 1
Qualifying Round 2
Qualifying Round 3
Play-offs
VikingAEK Athens FC
CelticLask Linz
Union St. GilloiseBodo/Glimt
Olympiakos Piraeus
NEC Nijmegen
Sparta Praha
LyonSlovan Bratislava
Mjallby AIF
Aarhus
Lech PoznanFenerbahçe
Gornik Zabrze
FC Thun
Dinamo Zagreb
Sturm Graz
Heart Of Midlothian
FK Crvena Zvezda
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Omonia Nicosia
CeljeVikingAEK Athens FCCelticLask LinzUnion St. GilloiseBodo/GlimtOlympiakos PiraeusNEC NijmegenSparta PrahaLyonVikingAEK Athens FCCelticLask LinzVikingAEK Athens FCCelticLask LinzUnion St. GilloiseBodo/GlimtOlympiakos PiraeusNEC NijmegenSparta PrahaLyonSlovan BratislavaMjallby AIFAarhusLech PoznanFenerbahçeGornik ZabrzeFC ThunDinamo ZagrebSturm GrazHeart Of MidlothianFK Crvena ZvezdaHapoel Beer ShevaOmonia NicosiaCeljeExplore more predictions
This match
About the Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain forecast
This is a UEFA Champions League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Manchester City and Paris Saint Germain in the UEFA Champions League table
In the UEFA Champions League table, Paris Saint Germain are 1st and Manchester City 10th, 3 points apart. League goal record so far: Manchester City 9-5, Paris Saint Germain 14-5. The full standings are on the UEFA Champions League Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
Manchester City have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Paris Saint Germain have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.