Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans Prediction

Parc des Princes, Paris·Mathieu Vernice 10/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
AI Best Pick
78%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.25
SignalHIGHModel76%SurpriseMediumGap-2.2%
Paris Saint Germain Rest
20 days
Le Mans Rest
8 days

Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans: the result in context

Paris Saint Germain beat Le Mans 3-1 in the Ligue 1 on 10 Oct 2026. It was in line with recent form: Paris Saint Germain had won 3 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Le Mans.

Referee Mathieu Vernice averages 4.48 cards a game, 0.61 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
87%1.12
X
10%9.90
2
3%18.88
Double Chance
1X
97%1.02
X2
14%6.53
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%1.91
No
52%1.83
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.74 + 0.83 = 3.57
Over 1.5
90%1.07
Over 2.5
77%1.25
Over 3.5
57%1.70
Under 1.5
10%8.10
Under 2.5
23%3.72
Under 3.5
43%2.19
Corners
Projected Corners: 7.2 + 3.4 = 10.6
Over 8.5
95%1.42
Over 9.5
80%1.71
Over 10.5
70%2.14
Under 8.5
5%2.63
Under 9.5
20%2.04
Under 10.5
30%1.64
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.4 + 2 = 3.4
Over 3.5
44%2.33
Over 4.5
26%3.75
Under 3.5
56%1.55
Under 4.5
74%1.24

Match Events

16'Penalty confirmedAchraf Hakimi
19'Lucas Beraldo(Penalty)
45'Habib Diallo INDame Gueye out
47'Dame GueyeFoul
54'Louis MafoutaAssist: Lucas Calodat
54'Goal confirmedLouis Mafouta
58'João Neves INWarren Zaire-Emery out
58'Dro Fernández INFabián Ruiz out
59'Lucas Beraldo INVitinha out
59'Mika Godts INKhvicha Kvaratskhelia out
61'Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
65'Louis MafoutaDissent
66'Jean Vercruysse INBilal Brahimi out
68'Maghnes AklioucheAssist: Warren Zaire-Emery
72'Achraf Hakimi INDésiré Doue out
72'Louis Mafouta INWilliam Harhouz out
72'Alexandre Lauray INAntoine Rabillard out
77'Lucas Calodat INYasser Larouci out
90+2'Rayan BambaFoul
90+2'Bilal BrahimiDissent
90+3'Désiré Doue(Penalty missed)
90+3'Noa BoisséFoul
90+5'Penalty cancelledVitinha

Lineups

Paris Saint Germain
4-3-3Coach: Luis Enrique
Le Mans
3-1-4-2Coach: P. Videira
Avg rating7.01
Avg rating6.24
M. Safonov6.939M. Safonov
A. Hakimi6.42A. Hakimi
I. Zabarnyi6.86I. Zabarnyi
L. Hernández7.221L. Hernández
L. Digne7.712L. Digne
João Neves6.587J. Neves
Beraldo7.34Beraldo
Pedro Fernández6.327P. Fernández
M. Akliouche8.111M. Akliouche
Ferran Torres6.69F. Torres
M. Godts6.722M. Godts
N. Kocik6.898N. Kocik
N. Boissé5.815N. Boissé
S. Yohou5.717S. Yohou
H. Voyer6.15H. Voyer
A. Lauray6.08A. Lauray
R. Bamba5.626R. Bamba
L. Bretelle6.129L. Bretelle
J. Vercruysse5.910J. Vercruysse
L. Calodat6.722L. Calodat
H. Diallo6.613H. Diallo
L. Mafouta7.214L. Mafouta

Paris Saint Germain Substitutes

30L. Chevalier
14D. Doué72'for Achraf Hakimi6.9
7K. Kvaratskhelia59'for Mika Godts61'7.9
17Vitinha59'for Lucas Beraldo7.0
47Quentin Ndjantou Mbitcha
51W. Pacho
8Fabián Ruiz58'for Dro Fernández6.5
5Marquinhos
33W. Zaïre-Emery58'for João Neves7.4

Le Mans Substitutes

23D. Traoré
18L. Buadés
7B. Brahimi66'for Jean Vercruysse90+2'6.5
25D. Guèye45'for Habib Diallo47'6.0
20W. Harhouz72'for Louis Mafouta6.7
1E. Hatfout
76Y. Larouci77'for Lucas Calodat5.9
9A. Rabillard72'for Alexandre Lauray6.2
16Raúl Torrente

Match Stats

Paris Saint GermainLe Mans
72%Ball Possession28%
4Corner Kicks4
0Yellow Cards5
22Total Shots11
8Shots on Goal3
8Shots off Goal7
13Shots Inside Box7
9Shots Outside Box4
6Blocked Shots1
3Fouls17
1Offsides5
2Goalkeeper Saves5
709Total Passes256
626Passes Accurate182
14Free Kicks2

Team Comparison

Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
Le MansLe Mans
2046Elo Rating 1658
3.32Attack 1.09
1.54Defense 0.84
100%Hit Rate 19%
21.0Shots per Game 10.9
10.3Shots on Target 3.6
4.0Corners per Game 2.4
0.3Cards per Game 2.9

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+389 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.57 goals

Game State Tendencies

Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (2.3 vs 1 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Le MansLe Mans
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.7 vs 0.4 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

1 previous meeting, all competitions

Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain1Wins · 100%
Draws00%
Le MansLe Mans0Wins · 0%
2.0Avg Goals
0%Both teams scored0 of 1
0%3+ goals0 of 1

Previous meetings

Coupe de France04/02/2025
Le MansParis Saint Germain
02

Recent Form

Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
4W3D3L
20/09/2026
MarseilleParis Saint Germain
12
W
13/09/2026
Stade Brestois 29Paris Saint Germain
01
W
09/09/2026
Paris Saint GermainSlovan Bratislava
61
W
04/09/2026
Paris Saint GermainMonaco
12
L
28/08/2026
LilleParis Saint Germain
22
D
23/08/2026
RennesParis Saint Germain
22
D
16/08/2026
LensParis Saint Germain
10
L
12/08/2026
Paris Saint GermainAston Villa
21
W
08/08/2026
Paris Saint GermainManchester United
11
D
05/08/2026
MallorcaParis Saint Germain
30
L
Le MansLe Mans
3W4D3L
02/10/2026
GuingampLe Mans
21
L
19/09/2026
Le MansLorient
21
W
13/09/2026
Le MansLens
22
D
05/09/2026
NiceLe Mans
11
D
30/08/2026
RennesLe Mans
32
L
22/08/2026
Le MansStade Brestois 29
22
D
15/08/2026
Le MansLe Havre
01
L
08/08/2026
Le MansUNFP
11
D
01/08/2026
AngersLe Mans
23
W
25/07/2026
Le MansNantes
10
W

Referee Profile

Mathieu Vernice138 matches

4.48Cards per match
4.18Yellow cards per match
0.30Red cards per match
28.7Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Mathieu Vernice4.48
Other referees3.87

4.48 cards a match, 0.61 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.87).

Cards come from 125 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Ligue 1 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1LyonLyon742113:5+814WLWDW
2Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain742114:9+514WWWWL
3Paris FCParis FC742112:7+514WLWDW
4LilleLille742110:5+514DWLWW
5MonacoMonaco742110:6+414LDWDW
6RennesRennes741215:14+113LWLWW
7LorientLorient73227:6+111WWLDW
8NiceNice83238:10-211WLWWL
9LensLens731314:11+310WWLDL
10MarseilleMarseille730414:10+49WWLLL
11Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29823314:12+29LDWLL
12ToulouseToulouse723212:11+19WDWDL
13AuxerreAuxerre730411:17-69WLWWL
14StrasbourgStrasbourg721412:15-37LLLDW
15AngersAngers72149:15-67LLWDL
16Le MansLe Mans713310:15-56LLWDD
17Estac TroyesEstac Troyes71155:16-114LLLLL
18Le HavreLe Havre70255:11-62LLLDL
#TeamMPGPts
1LyonLyon713:514
2Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain714:914
3Paris FCParis FC712:714
4LilleLille710:514
5MonacoMonaco710:614
6RennesRennes715:1413
7LorientLorient77:611
8NiceNice88:1011
9LensLens714:1110
10MarseilleMarseille714:109
11Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29814:129
12ToulouseToulouse712:119
13AuxerreAuxerre711:179
14StrasbourgStrasbourg712:157
15AngersAngers79:157
16Le MansLe Mans710:156
17Estac TroyesEstac Troyes75:164
18Le HavreLe Havre75:112
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation

About the Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans forecast

The forecasts for this Ligue 1 match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Paris Saint Germain and Le Mans in the Ligue 1 table

The table shows a wide gap: Paris Saint Germain are 2nd in the Ligue 1, while Le Mans sit 16th, 8 points behind. League goal record so far: Paris Saint Germain 14-9, Le Mans 10-15. The full standings are on the Ligue 1 Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Paris Saint Germain have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Paris Saint Germain and Le Mans have met only 1 time recently, with 2.0 goals in that meeting. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.