Necaxa vs Cruz Azul Prediction

Necaxa
1-3
Finished
HT 0-1
Cruz Azul
Estadio Victoria, Aguascalientes· Ismael Rosario Lopez Penuelas, Mexico 29/08/2026
NecaxaNecaxa
1-3
Finished
Cruz AzulCruz Azul

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
61%Trust
BTTS
Both Teams to Score
1.58
SignalSOLIDModel50%RiskMediumGap-2.5%
Value Analysis
71%Trust
Corners Total
Corners Under 10.5
1.49
SignalGOODModel48%RiskMediumGap+8.7%
Necaxa Rest
5 days
Cruz Azul Rest
5 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
26%3.48
X
25%3.60
2
49%2.00
Double Chance
1X
51%1.77
X2
74%1.28
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%1.58
No
39%2.25
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.11 + 1.56 = 2.67
Over 1.5
75%1.20
Over 2.5
52%1.69
Over 3.5
33%2.67
Under 1.5
25%4.25
Under 2.5
48%2.15
Under 3.5
67%1.44
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.7 + 4.6 = 9.3
Over 8.5
55%1.53
Over 9.5
44%1.88
Over 10.5
29%2.39
Under 8.5
45%2.32
Under 9.5
56%1.84
Under 10.5
71%1.49
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.7 + 2.5 = 5.2
Over 3.5
69%1.29
Over 4.5
55%1.63
Under 3.5
31%3.10
Under 4.5
45%2.13

Match Events

23'J. MarquezAssist: C. Rodriguez
32'C. Vargas INM. Zaleta out
43'D. LeyvaFoul
46'Naves INR. Martinez out
46'M. Espindola INJ. P. Torres Patino out
46'N. IbanezAssist: C. Rodriguez
53'W. DittaAssist: J. Paradela
54'W. DittaUnsportsmanlike conduct
59'A. GarciaFoul
61'L. Faravelli INP. Pedraza out
61'O. Gonzalez INE. Rodriguez out
67'J. RuizFoul
73'J. Marquez INL. Romero out
73'R. Gonzalez INJ. Rodarte out
73'N. Ibanez ING. Fernandez out
78'D. Leyva INR. Cortez out
83'E. RodriguezAssist: P. Pedraza
84'E. RodriguezUnsportsmanlike conduct
84'J. Paradela INC. Ebere out
84'A. Garcia INA. Montes out
86'O. Campos INJ. Diaz out
90+4'P. PedrazaFoul
90+4'J. P. Torres PatinoUnsportsmanlike conduct

Lineups

Necaxa
3-5-2Coach: Martin Varini
Cruz Azul
4-2-3-1Coach: Joel Huiqui
Luis Jimenez12L. JimenezLuis Jimenez
Kaiky Naves5K. NavesKaiky Naves
Alexis Peña4A. PeñaAlexis Peña
Agustín Oliveros3A. OliverosAgustín Oliveros
Owen González13O. GonzálezOwen González
Matías Espíndola21M. EspíndolaMatías Espíndola
Danny Leyva6D. LeyvaDanny Leyva
Lorenzo Faravelli8L. FaravelliLorenzo Faravelli
Carlos Vargas88C. VargasCarlos Vargas
Julián Carranza9J. CarranzaJulián Carranza
Javier Ruiz10J. RuizJavier Ruiz
Kevin Mier23K. MierKevin Mier
Jeremy Márquez16J. MárquezJeremy Márquez
Willer Ditta4W. DittaWiller Ditta
Jesús Orozco5J. OrozcoJesús Orozco
Omar Campos3O. CamposOmar Campos
Amaury Garcia17A. GarciaAmaury Garcia
Agustín Palavecino8A. PalavecinoAgustín Palavecino
José Paradela20J. ParadelaJosé Paradela
Carlos Rodríguez19C. RodríguezCarlos Rodríguez
Rogelio González55R. GonzálezRogelio González
Nicolás Ibáñez7N. IbáñezNicolás Ibáñez

Necaxa Substitutes

1Christopher AndradeG
20Francisco MéndezD
15Diego OchoaD
33Raúl MartínezD
17Rogelio Cortéz PinedaM
99Emilio RodriguezM
11Juan TorresM
14Mauro ZaletaM
16Pedro PedrazaM
90Juan ValenciaF

Cruz Azul Substitutes

1Andrés GudiñoG
12Alan MontesD
49Josué DíazD
22Jorge Rodarte BarraganD
10Andres MontañoM
70Ivan SilvaM
11Osinachi EbereF
27Bryan GamboaF
21Gabriel FernándezF
18Luka RomeroF

Match Stats

NecaxaCruz Azul
46%Ball Possession54%
7Corner Kicks7
5Yellow Cards2
13Total Shots22
4Shots on Goal8
5Shots off Goal10
2Shots Inside Box8
11Shots Outside Box14
4Blocked Shots4
15Fouls14
0Offsides1
5Goalkeeper Saves3
403Total Passes478
333Passes Accurate396
83%Pass Accuracy83%

Team Comparison

NecaxaNecaxa
Cruz AzulCruz Azul
1536Elo Rating 1764
0.73Attack 1.61
1.47Defense 1.33
0%Hit Rate 59%
12.2Shots per Game 14.6
3.2Shots on Target 5.4
5.6Corners per Game 7.8
1.7Cards per Game 2.7

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend83% in H2H
📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

NecaxaNecaxa
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.5 vs 0.2 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Cruz AzulCruz Azul
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Based on 5 historical meetings

Necaxa 14%Draw 23%63% Cruz Azul
3.5Avg Goals
83%BTTS Rate
77%Over 2.5

Recent Form

NecaxaNecaxa
1W1D3L
24/08/2026
U.N.A.M. - PumasNecaxa
11
D
18/08/2026
NecaxaLeon
12
L
14/08/2026
New York City FCNecaxa
12
W
10/08/2026
Philadelphia UnionNecaxa
31
L
07/08/2026
Chicago FireNecaxa
20
L

Referee Profile

Ismael Rosario Lopez Penuelas, Mexico · 27 matches analysed

4.9Avg Yellows
5.2Avg Cards
24.7Avg Fouls
Stricter than 83% of referees analysed

League Table

Liga MX 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1TolucaToluca861118:6+1219WWWWD
2Guadalajara ChivasGuadalajara Chivas953117:8+918DWWDW
3Club AmericaClub America852117:8+917DLWWW
4Cruz AzulCruz Azul950416:15+115LWWWL
5PueblaPuebla942311:11014DLWLW
6AtlasAtlas942313:15-214DLDLW
7MonterreyMonterrey841314:10+413WDLLW
8Club QueretaroClub Queretaro741210:7+313WWLDW
9Club LeonClub Leon841311:9+213WWDLW
10Club TijuanaClub Tijuana741210:8+213LWLWD
11U.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas933312:13-112DLWLD
12CF PachucaCF Pachuca832313:8+511WWDDL
13Atletico San LuisAtletico San Luis923411:16-59WLLWD
14Atlante FCAtlante FC91538:13-58DLDDL
15NecaxaNecaxa922510:16-68LLDLD
16Tigres UANLTigres UANL91449:13-47LDDDW
17Santos LagunaSantos Laguna81166:13-74WLDLL
18FC JuarezFC Juarez91086:23-173WLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1TolucaToluca818:619
2Guadalajara ChivasGuadalajara Chivas917:818
3Club AmericaClub America817:817
4Cruz AzulCruz Azul916:1515
5PueblaPuebla911:1114
6AtlasAtlas913:1514
7MonterreyMonterrey814:1013
8Club QueretaroClub Queretaro710:713
9Club LeonClub Leon811:913
10Club TijuanaClub Tijuana710:813
11U.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas912:1312
12CF PachucaCF Pachuca813:811
13Atletico San LuisAtletico San Luis911:169
14Atlante FCAtlante FC98:138
15NecaxaNecaxa910:168
16Tigres UANLTigres UANL99:137
17Santos LagunaSantos Laguna86:134
18FC JuarezFC Juarez96:233
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Necaxa vs Cruz Azul Prediction

Our AI model has analysed this Liga MX fixture using team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history. The forecasts cover six independent markets - each probability is a separate model calculation, not derived from the match winner result.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

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Key Factors for This Match

Necaxa and Cruz Azul have met 5 times recently, averaging 3.5 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.