New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City Prediction
USA · Regular Season - 27
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
63%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.42
SignalSOLIDModel48%SurpriseMediumGap-7.1%
Value Analysis
58%Trust
Home Corners
Home Corners Under 4.5
2.03
SignalSOLIDModel58%SurpriseMediumGap+9.5%
New York Red Bulls Rest
12 days
St. Louis City Rest
10 days
New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City: the result in context
St. Louis City beat New York Red Bulls 3-0 in the Major League Soccer on 1 Oct 2026. It was in line with recent form: St. Louis City had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 2 for New York Red Bulls.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
126%3.70
X24%4.15
250%1.81
Double Chance
1X50%1.93
X274%1.25
Both Teams to Score
Yes64%1.43
No36%2.63
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.34 + 1.7 = 3.04
Over 1.584%1.11
Over 2.565%1.42
Over 3.542%2.08
Under 1.516%6.00
Under 2.535%2.81
Under 3.558%1.73
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.2 + 5.5 = 9.7
Over 8.560%1.45
Over 9.548%1.77
Over 10.536%2.23
Under 8.540%2.54
Under 9.552%1.98
Under 10.564%1.58
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.4 + 2.2 = 4.6
Over 3.568%1.61
Over 4.549%2.21
Under 3.532%2.24
Under 4.551%1.63
Match Events
5'Rafael Navarro LealAssist: Conrad Wallem
35'Timo BaumgartlFoul
63'Devin Padelford INConnor Faello out
64'Jorge Ruvalcaba INPedro Castro out
71'Alexandru Măţan INSimon Becher out
71'Carlo Holse INSang-bin Jung out
84'Sekou Kone INNate Worth out
85'Daniel Edelman INLukas MacNaughton out
85'Rafael Navarro Leal INTomas Ostrak out
86'Emil ForsbergDissent
87'Mohammed Sofo INAndy Rojas Maroto out
87'Tim Parker INRobert Voloder out
87'Simon BecherAssist: Christopher Durkin
90+1'Tomas Ostrak
Lineups
New York Red BullsSt. Louis City
3-4-3Coach: Y. DametAvg ratingAvg rating
34E. Horvath
12D. Nealis
26T. Parker
14J. Bazán
59D. Padelford
37M. Sofo
60S. Kone
10E. Forsberg
11J. Ruvalcaba
13E. Choupo-Moting
7C. Cowell
1R. Bürki
21D. Polvara
32T. Baumgartl
27F. Fall
6C. Wallem
24D. Edelman
8C. Durkin
14T. Totland
19C. Holse
9R. Navarro
23A. MățanNew York Red Bulls Substitutes
45C. Faello63'for Devin Padelford
88Pedro Castro64'replaced by Jorge Ruvalcaba
80N. Worth84'for Sekou Kone
6R. Voloder87'for Tim Parker
66T. Rosborough
70A. Rojas87'for Mohammed Sofo
77J. McCarthy
St. Louis City Substitutes
28M. Perez
20Rafael Santos
11S. Becher71'for Alexandru Măţan87'
77Jeong Sang-Bin71'for Carlo Holse
59M. Joyner
39B. Lundt
5L. MacNaughton85'for Daniel Edelman
99J. Orozco
7T. Ostrák85'for Rafael Navarro Leal90+1'
Match Stats
New York Red BullsSt. Louis City 45%Ball Possession55%
4Corner Kicks3
1Yellow Cards1
10Total Shots15
5Shots on Goal8
3Shots off Goal3
6Shots Inside Box10
4Shots Outside Box5
2Blocked Shots4
12Fouls12
3Offsides4
5Goalkeeper Saves4
420Total Passes511
338Passes Accurate415
12Free Kicks12
Team Comparison
New York Red BullsSt. Louis City1501Elo Rating 1732
1.15Attack 2.63
1.31Defense 1.66
34%Hit Rate 50%
18.1Shots per Game 12.9
5.8Shots on Target 6.2
6.8Corners per Game 5.3
1.7Cards per Game 1.8
AI Insights
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.04 goals
📉Home Underperforming
Game State Tendencies
New York Red Bulls- No tendency data available
St. Louis City- Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
- Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.8 vs 0.8 in second half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Recent Form
New York Red Bulls3W2D5L
19/09/2026
New York City FCNew York Red Bulls
Columbus CrewNew York Red Bulls
Los Angeles FCNew York Red Bulls
Seattle SoundersNew York Red BullsNew York Red Bulls
Philadelphia UnionNew York Red Bulls
Chicago FireNew York Red Bulls
Nashville SC
Atlanta United FCNew York Red BullsNew York Red Bulls
Orlando City SCNew York Red Bulls
Charlotte
New York City FCNew York Red Bulls01
W13/09/2026Columbus CrewNew York Red Bulls01
W10/09/2026Los Angeles FCNew York Red Bulls20
L06/09/2026Seattle SoundersNew York Red Bulls00
D30/08/2026New York Red BullsPhiladelphia Union13
L23/08/2026New York Red BullsChicago Fire11
D20/08/2026New York Red BullsNashville SC01
L16/08/2026Atlanta United FCNew York Red Bulls21
L02/08/2026New York Red BullsOrlando City SC32
W26/07/2026New York Red BullsCharlotte02
LSt. Louis City6W4D0L
20/09/2026St. Louis City
Toronto FCSt. Louis City
Minnesota United FC
Portland TimbersSt. Louis CitySt. Louis City
FC DallasSt. Louis City
Houston Dynamo
Sporting Kansas CitySt. Louis City
San Jose EarthquakesSt. Louis CitySt. Louis City
Real Salt Lake
St. Louis CityToronto FC31
W17/09/2026
Colorado RapidsSt. Louis City
13/09/2026Colorado RapidsSt. Louis City03
WSt. Louis CityMinnesota United FC42
W10/09/2026Portland TimbersSt. Louis City22
D06/09/2026
Vancouver WhitecapsSt. Louis City
31/08/2026Vancouver WhitecapsSt. Louis City13
WSt. Louis CityFC Dallas33
D23/08/2026St. Louis CityHouston Dynamo21
W20/08/2026Sporting Kansas CitySt. Louis City11
D16/08/2026San Jose EarthquakesSt. Louis City13
W02/08/2026St. Louis CityReal Salt Lake11
DReferee Profile
4.02Cards per match
3.83Yellow cards per match
0.20Red cards per match
23.1Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
4.02 cards a match, 0.31 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.33).
Cards come from 128 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
Western Conference
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 63:31 | +32 | 55 | WDDLD |
| 2 | St. Louis City | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 56:41 | +15 | 51 | LDWWW |
| 3 | FC Dallas | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 55:47 | +8 | 51 | DWLWD |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 52:42 | +10 | 48 | DDDWD |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 41:39 | +2 | 47 | DDDLD |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 31 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 48:33 | +15 | 46 | DWDLD |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 39:37 | +2 | 42 | DLWWW |
| 8 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 31 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 43:52 | -9 | 40 | DWLWW |
| 9 | Colorado Rapids | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 41:41 | 0 | 39 | DDDLD |
| 10 | Real Salt Lake | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 45:48 | -3 | 36 | WDLWL |
| 11 | Portland Timbers | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 51:56 | -5 | 34 | DLDLL |
| 12 |  San Diego | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 53:56 | -3 | 34 | DDLDD |
| 13 | Minnesota United FC | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 47:55 | -8 | 34 | WDDLL |
| 14 |  Austin | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 38:56 | -18 | 31 | LLLDD |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 30 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 36:75 | -39 | 22 | LLDLW |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 63:31 | 55 |
| 2 | St. Louis City | 30 | 56:41 | 51 |
| 3 | FC Dallas | 30 | 55:47 | 51 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 30 | 52:42 | 48 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 30 | 41:39 | 47 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 31 | 48:33 | 46 |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 30 | 39:37 | 42 |
| 8 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 31 | 43:52 | 40 |
| 9 | Colorado Rapids | 30 | 41:41 | 39 |
| 10 | Real Salt Lake | 30 | 45:48 | 36 |
| 11 | Portland Timbers | 30 | 51:56 | 34 |
| 12 | San Diego | 30 | 53:56 | 34 |
| 13 | Minnesota United FC | 30 | 47:55 | 34 |
| 14 | Austin | 30 | 38:56 | 31 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 30 | 36:75 | 22 |
Eastern Conference
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 30 | 20 | 7 | 3 | 64:23 | +41 | 67 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 30 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 73:51 | +22 | 55 | WWWLD |
| 3 |  New England Revolution | 30 | 16 | 4 | 10 | 49:41 | +8 | 52 | WWLLW |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 52:44 | +8 | 48 | LLWWW |
| 5 | Charlotte | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 53:45 | +8 | 47 | DLWLW |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 61:48 | +13 | 46 | DWWWW |
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 30 | 12 | 5 | 13 | 58:70 | -12 | 41 | WDWLL |
| 8 |  FC Cincinnati | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 62:71 | -9 | 39 | WLLWL |
| 9 | New York Red Bulls | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 39:56 | -17 | 36 | LLWLW |
| 10 | Toronto FC | 30 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 46:55 | -9 | 36 | WDWLL |
| 11 | Columbus Crew | 30 | 10 | 5 | 15 | 46:47 | -1 | 35 | WWLWW |
| 12 | New York City FC | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 43:41 | +2 | 34 | DLLDL |
| 13 |  DC United | 30 | 7 | 12 | 11 | 38:53 | -15 | 33 | LLWLD |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 30 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 37:51 | -14 | 30 | LWLDW |
| 15 |  CF Montreal | 30 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 36:60 | -24 | 25 | DLLWL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 30 | 64:23 | 67 |
| 2 | Inter Miami | 30 | 73:51 | 55 |
| 3 | New England Revolution | 30 | 49:41 | 52 |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 30 | 52:44 | 48 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 30 | 53:45 | 47 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 30 | 61:48 | 46 |
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 30 | 58:70 | 41 |
| 8 | FC Cincinnati | 30 | 62:71 | 39 |
| 9 | New York Red Bulls | 30 | 39:56 | 36 |
| 10 | Toronto FC | 30 | 46:55 | 36 |
| 11 | Columbus Crew | 30 | 46:47 | 35 |
| 12 | New York City FC | 30 | 43:41 | 34 |
| 13 | DC United | 30 | 38:53 | 33 |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 30 | 37:51 | 30 |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 30 | 36:60 | 25 |
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About the New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City forecast
The forecasts for this Major League Soccer match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
About Major League Soccer
More Major League Soccer fixtures and forecasts are on the Major League Soccer Predictions page.
Key Factors for This Match
St. Louis City have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. New York Red Bulls and St. Louis City have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.