Toluca vs Monterrey Prediction

Toluca
2-0
Finished
HT 1-0
Monterrey
Iván Barton, El Salvador 07/09/2026
TolucaToluca
2-0
Finished
MonterreyMonterrey

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
7.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
82%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.31
SignalHIGHModel65%RiskMediumGap+5.9%
Toluca Rest
4 days
Monterrey Rest
3 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
63%2.09
X
22%3.62
2
15%3.24
Double Chance
1X
85%1.31
X2
37%1.70
Both Teams to Score

Both teams to score forecasts not available for this match

Goals

Goal forecasts not available for this match

Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

1'Andres PereiraFoul
4'Alexis Vega
13'Orbelín PinedaFoul
38'Franco RomeroFoul
61'Jesús Angulo INJorge Diaz out
61'Brian Garcia INDiego Barbosa out
68'Alexis Vega INVíctor Guzmán out
68'Nicolás Castro INLuan Garcia out
70'Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro
74'Diego BarbosaFoul
75'Ricardo Chávez INUros Djurdjevic out
75'Óliver Torres INLucas Orellano out
78'Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro INJoão Paulo Dias Fernandes out
88'Jesús Corona INFidel Ambriz out
88'Orbelín Pineda INIker Fimbres out
90'Hugo CuypersFoul

Lineups

Toluca
4-3-3Coach: A. Mohamed
Monterrey
4-2-3-1Coach: M. Almeyda
H. González1H. GonzálezH. González
B. García17B. GarcíaB. García
F. Pereira6F. PereiraF. Pereira
E. López25E. LópezE. López
J. Gallardo20J. GallardoJ. Gallardo
N. Castro8N. CastroN. Castro
F. Romero5F. RomeroF. Romero
J. Angulo10J. AnguloJ. Angulo
Helinho11HelinhoHelinho
F. Viñas16F. ViñasF. Viñas
A. Vega9A. VegaA. Vega
E. Andrada1E. AndradaE. Andrada
R. Chávez2R. ChávezR. Chávez
V. Guzmán4V. GuzmánV. Guzmán
C. Salcedo13C. SalcedoC. Salcedo
G. Arteaga3G. ArteagaG. Arteaga
Óliver Torres8Ó. TorresÓliver Torres
O. Pineda25O. PinedaO. Pineda
L. Ocampos7L. OcamposL. Ocampos
D. Rossi9D. RossiD. Rossi
J. Corona17J. CoronaJ. Corona
H. Cuypers99H. CuypersH. Cuypers

Toluca Substitutes

2D. BarbosaD
24F. ArceM
12R. BeltránG
3A. BriseñoD
26PaulinhoF
29J. DíazM
13LuanD
7V. GuzmánM
192L. NavarreteD
15P. PérezM
18D. ShremG
23O. VirgenF

Monterrey Substitutes

5F. AmbrízM
22L. CárdenasG
11Iker Jareth Fimbres OchoaM
18Cesar Garza CantuM
33S. MedinaD
10L. OrellanoF
31C. RamosG
21L. ReyesD
30J. RodríguezM
27R. de la RosaF
32U. ĐurđevićF
14É. AguirreM

Match Stats

TolucaMonterrey
49%Ball Possession51%
2Corner Kicks15
3Yellow Cards2
8Total Shots16
5Shots on Goal2
2Shots off Goal10
5Shots Inside Box12
3Shots Outside Box4
1Blocked Shots4
19Fouls14
1Offsides2
2Goalkeeper Saves3
331Total Passes320
260Passes Accurate269
13Free Kicks19

Team Comparison

TolucaToluca
MonterreyMonterrey
1813Elo Rating 1611
2.70Attack 0.84
2.54Defense 1.51
100%Hit Rate 14%
11.1Shots per Game 14.6
4.6Shots on Target 3.5
4.5Corners per Game 8.3
1.6Cards per Game 1.9

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+202 Elo
💎Value Analysis Identified
📊Home Overperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

TolucaToluca
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
MonterreyMonterrey
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.7 vs 0.1 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Based on 5 historical meetings

Toluca 81%Draw 0%19% Monterrey
3.36Avg Goals
54%BTTS Rate
54%Over 2.5

Referee Profile

Iván Barton, El Salvador · 3 matches analysed

4.2Avg Yellows
4.6Avg Cards
23.6Avg Fouls
Stricter than 48% of referees analysed

Bracket

Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Monterrey2
Chicago Fire1
Leon3
Real Salt Lake0
Toluca2
Austin0
Club America2
Columbus Crew0

Toluca vs Monterrey Prediction

As a knockout-stage Leagues Cup fixture, this match carries added importance for both sides. Our AI model analyses team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history to build forecasts across six independent markets.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About Leagues Cup

ScorePredicts covers Leagues Cup across every knockout round. Use the navigation to explore today's full fixture list or filter by market.

Key Factors for This Match

This is a high-importance fixture for both sides, rated 7.2 out of 10 by our context model. Toluca have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. Toluca and Monterrey have met 5 times recently, averaging 3.36 goals per game in those meetings. Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.