Valladolid vs Castellón Prediction

Valladolid
0-1
Finished
HT 0-0
Castellón
Estadio José Zorrilla, Valladolid·Salvador Lax 14/11/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
84%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.20
SignalSTRONGModel48%SurpriseMediumGap+0.7%
Valladolid Rest
5 days
Castellón Rest
12 days

Valladolid vs Castellón: the result in context

Castellón beat Valladolid 1-0 in the Segunda División on 14 Nov 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Valladolid tend to win more corners, 7.2 a game to 3.4 for Castellón.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
30%2.93
X
25%3.58
2
45%2.25
Double Chance
1X
55%1.62
X2
70%1.39
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%1.53
No
38%2.34
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.35 + 1.7 = 3.05
Over 1.5
82%1.20
Over 2.5
59%1.70
Over 3.5
35%2.63
Under 1.5
18%4.33
Under 2.5
41%2.17
Under 3.5
65%1.44
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.4 + 4.8 = 9.2
Over 8.5
56%1.64
Over 9.5
43%2.10
Over 10.5
32%2.75
Under 8.5
44%2.08
Under 9.5
57%1.67
Under 10.5
68%1.38
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.3 + 2 = 4.2
Over 3.5
61%-
Over 4.5
42%-
Under 3.5
39%-
Under 4.5
58%-

Match Events

5'Álvaro Pérez Campo INRamón Martínez out
28'Carlos ClercFoul
45'Julien PonceauDissent
45+4'Thiago Ezequiel OjedaArgument
45+4'Alberto JiménezArgument
58'Pablo Santiago INantonio gala out
59'Alvaro MartinFoul
61'Thiago Ezequiel Ojeda INMathis Lachuer out
61'Tay Abed INLuis Rodríguez Chacón out
66'Mathis LachuerFoul
67'Adam Jakobsen(Penalty missed)
67'Adam Jakobsen
69'Juanjo Nieto INRaúl Sánchez out
69'Alvaro Martin INJari Vlak out
71'Stanko Jurić INVictor Barbera out
71'Víctor Fernández INRyotaro Ito out
80'Adam JakobsenFoul
82'Adam Jakobsen INLucas Alcázar out
82'Ousmane Camara INÁlvaro García Arana out

Lineups

Valladolid
4-3-1-2Coach: Fran Escribá
Castellón
3-4-2-1Coach: Pablo Hernández
Avg rating6.50
Avg rating6.97
Álvaro Aceves6.71Á. Aceves
Trilli6.62Trilli
Miguel Rubio7.212M. Rubio
David Torres6.94D. Torres
Clerc6.518Clerc
T. Ojeda6.18T. Ojeda
S. Jurić6.724S. Jurić
J. Ponceau6.821J. Ponceau
Víctor Fernández6.030V. Fernández
T. Abed6.323T. Abed
Adrian Arnuncio5.919A. Arnuncio
R. Matthys7.013R. Matthys
J. Mellot7.322J. Mellot
Alberto Jiménez7.35A. Jiménez
A. Sienra7.84A. Sienra
Juanjo Nieto6.52J. Nieto
Barri7.28Barri
Álvaro Martín6.921Á. Martín
Iñigo Córdoba6.714I. Córdoba
Pablo Santiago7.118P. Santiago
A. Jakobsen7.716A. Jakobsen
Ousmane Camara6.39O. Camara

Valladolid Substitutes

27Iván Garriel
11Yeray Cabanzón
10R. Ito71'for Víctor Fernández6.4
6M. Lachuer61'for Thiago Ezequiel Ojeda66'6.3
13Dani Martín
5Ramón Martínez5'for Álvaro Pérez Campo6.9
28Dani Pérez
7Luis Chacón61'for Tay Abed6.5
15Pablo Tomeo
22K. de Rooij
20R. Duiven
17Victor Barberá71'for Stanko Jurić6.4

Castellón Substitutes

12Lucas Alcázar82'for Adam Jakobsen7.0
19Hamza Bellari
11F. Ceccherini
20Martín Conde
27A. Gala58'for Pablo Santiago7.2
23Varo García82'for Ousmane Camara6.5
15I. Kostis
24D. Muale Nzanza
7Raúl Sánchez69'for Juanjo Nieto6.4
35Sergi Torner
25J. Vlak69'for Alvaro Martin6.8
30M. Willmann

Match Stats

ValladolidCastellón
42%Ball Possession58%
2Corner Kicks9
4Yellow Cards3
5Total Shots13
3Shots on Goal3
2Shots off Goal6
4Shots Inside Box8
1Shots Outside Box5
0Blocked Shots4
11Fouls13
3Offsides2
2Goalkeeper Saves3
398Total Passes528
322Passes Accurate451
12Free Kicks11

Team Comparison

ValladolidValladolid
CastellónCastellón
1569Elo Rating 1755
2.54Attack 2.23
1.30Defense 2.59
64%Hit Rate 59%
16.4Shots per Game 10.7
7.9Shots on Target 3.9
7.2Corners per Game 3.4
3.1Cards per Game 2.7

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy3.04 goals
📈BTTS Trend
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

ValladolidValladolid
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Starts fast: scores more in 1st half (1.8 vs 0.8 in second half)
CastellónCastellón
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Starts fast: scores more in 1st half (1.4 vs 0.8 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half, then tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 2 meetings, all competitions

ValladolidValladolid1Wins · 50%
Draws00%
CastellónCastellón1Wins · 50%
2.5Avg Goals
0%Both teams scored0 of 2
50%3+ goals1 of 2

Previous meetings

Segunda División08/02/2026
ValladolidCastellón
04
Segunda División22/08/2025
CastellónValladolid
01

Referee Profile

Salvador Lax113 matches

4.72Cards per match
4.52Yellow cards per match
0.19Red cards per match
24.8Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Salvador Lax4.72
Other referees5.19

4.72 cards a match, 0.47 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.19).

Cards come from 67 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Segunda División 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1CastellónCastellón1393124:5+1930WDWWL
2AlmeriaAlmeria1392224:10+1429WDDWW
3BurgosBurgos1473420:17+324LWDWW
4EibarEibar1272321:14+723DLDLW
5Granada CFGranada CF1272320:14+623WWWWW
6Sporting GijonSporting Gijon1472516:17-123DLWLW
7MallorcaMallorca1264215:7+822WDDWD
8GironaGirona1363422:12+1021LLWWD
9OviedoOviedo1363419:16+321WLDWW
10Las PalmasLas Palmas1362519:21-220WWWLL
11CordobaCordoba1361622:22019WDWWL
12ValladolidValladolid1453622:21+118LWWLL
13SabadellSabadell1346312:11+118DLDLW
14TenerifeTenerife1236315:17-215DDDDL
15LeganesLeganes1443714:24-1015WLLDL
16EldenseEldense1342713:19-614LLLWW
17Celta de Vigo IICelta de Vigo II1334619:25-613LDLDW
18Real Sociedad IIReal Sociedad II1434717:24-713DDWLL
19FC AndorraFC Andorra1232717:22-511DLLWD
20CadizCadiz1324716:18-210LLWLL
21AlbaceteAlbacete1331913:24-1110WWWLL
22AD Ceuta FCAD Ceuta FC13121010:30-205LLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1CastellónCastellón1324:530
2AlmeriaAlmeria1324:1029
3BurgosBurgos1420:1724
4EibarEibar1221:1423
5Granada CFGranada CF1220:1423
6Sporting GijonSporting Gijon1416:1723
7MallorcaMallorca1215:722
8GironaGirona1322:1221
9OviedoOviedo1319:1621
10Las PalmasLas Palmas1319:2120
11CordobaCordoba1322:2219
12ValladolidValladolid1422:2118
13SabadellSabadell1312:1118
14TenerifeTenerife1215:1715
15LeganesLeganes1414:2415
16EldenseEldense1313:1914
17Celta de Vigo IICelta de Vigo II1319:2513
18Real Sociedad IIReal Sociedad II1417:2413
19FC AndorraFC Andorra1217:2211
20CadizCadiz1316:1810
21AlbaceteAlbacete1313:2410
22AD Ceuta FCAD Ceuta FC1310:305
PromotionRelegation

About the Valladolid vs Castellón forecast

The forecasts for this Segunda División match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage is the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% means strong statistical confidence; 45-65% points to a competitive, open match; below 45% means the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for information and entertainment only.

Valladolid and Castellón in the Segunda División table

In the Segunda División table, Castellón are 1st and Valladolid 12th, 12 points apart. League goal record so far: Valladolid 22-21, Castellón 24-5. The full standings are on the Segunda División Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Valladolid have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Castellón have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Valladolid and Castellón have met only 2 times recently, averaging 2.5 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.