Castellón vs Sporting Gijon Prediction

Castellón
4-0
Finished
HT 2-0
Sporting Gijon
Estadio Municipal Castalia, Castellon·Gorka Etayo Herrera 25/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
79%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.20
SignalHIGHModel65%SurpriseMediumGap-3.9%
Value Analysis
68%Trust
Home Cards
Home Cards Under 2.5
1.63
SignalGOODModel68%SurpriseMediumGap+10.6%
Castellón Rest
7 days
Sporting Gijon Rest
8 days

Castellón vs Sporting Gijon: result, form and history

Castellón beat Sporting Gijon 4-0 in the Segunda División on 25 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Games between these two are rarely quiet: their 6 previous meetings averaged 3.7 goals, and both sides scored in 4 of them. Referee Gorka Etayo Herrera averages 4.76 cards a game, 0.77 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
60%1.48
X
23%4.30
2
17%6.03
Double Chance
1X
83%1.12
X2
40%2.50
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%1.75
No
45%1.98
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.8 + 1.16 = 2.96
Over 1.5
80%1.20
Over 2.5
57%1.64
Over 3.5
34%2.63
Under 1.5
20%4.33
Under 2.5
43%2.22
Under 3.5
66%1.44
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.5 + 4.1 = 9.6
Over 8.5
61%1.43
Over 9.5
49%1.74
Over 10.5
37%2.21
Under 8.5
39%2.58
Under 9.5
51%2.00
Under 10.5
63%1.59
Cards
Projected Cards: 2 + 2.6 = 4.5
Over 3.5
67%1.32
Over 4.5
48%1.67
Under 3.5
33%3.16
Under 4.5
52%2.10

Match Events

3'Adam JakobsenAssist: Matías Orozco
7'Hugo GuillamónFoul
26'Israel Suero FernándezAssist: Matías Orozco
35'Matías OrozcoFoul
52'Adam JakobsenAssist: Matías Orozco
58'Gaspar Campos INEnol Prendes Ortiz out
58'Juan Otero INAlejo Sarco out
66'Íñigo Córdoba INLucas Alcázar out
67'Matías Orozco INJari Vlak out
68'Guillermo RosasDissent
69'Hugo Guillamón INMamadou Loum out
74'Alberto Jiménez INIlias Kostis out
74'Israel Suero Fernández INantonio gala out
78'Andres Cuenca INDiego Sánchez out
78'Pablo García INDiego Matabuena Álvarez out
79'Penalty cancelledantonio gala
82'Adam Jakobsen INÁlvaro García Arana out
87'Álvaro García AranaAssist: Alvaro Martin

Lineups

Castellón
4-4-2Coach: Pablo Hernández
Sporting Gijon
4-4-2Coach: N. Larcamón
Avg rating7.58
Avg rating6.08
R. Matthys7.513R. Matthys
J. Mellot8.022J. Mellot
Alberto Jiménez7.45A. Jiménez
A. Sienra7.64A. Sienra
Iñigo Córdoba7.514I. Córdoba
Pablo Santiago6.618P. Santiago
M. Orozco9.36M. Orozco
Barri7.28Barri
Álvaro Martín7.721Á. Martín
Israel Suero8.210I. Suero
A. Jakobsen8.616A. Jakobsen
Rubén Yáñez5.71R. Yáñez
Guille Rosas6.22G. Rosas
E. Gularte6.14E. Gularte
Jorge Sáenz6.023J. Sáenz
Andrés Cuenca5.644A. Cuenca
Gaspar Campos5.87G. Campos
Hugo Guillamón6.022H. Guillamón
Álex Corredera6.314Á. Corredera
Pablo García5.93P. García
César Gelabert6.510C. Gelabert
J. Otero6.419J. Otero

Castellón Substitutes

19Hamza Bellari
12Lucas Alcázar66'for Íñigo Córdoba7.0
11F. Ceccherini
27A. Gala74'for Israel Suero Fernández6.8
23Varo García82'for Adam Jakobsen87'7.9
15I. Kostis74'for Alberto Jiménez7.3
24D. Muale Nzanza
26Rodrigo Miguel Ferreira Rêgo
1A. Saipi
7Raúl Sánchez
20Martín Conde
25J. Vlak67'for Matías Orozco6.8

Sporting Gijon Substitutes

24Aimar Duñabeitia
15Pablo Vázquez
16A. Sarco58'for Juan Otero6.6
5Diego Sánchez78'for Andres Cuenca5.7
27Enol Prendes58'for Gaspar Campos6.3
6Nacho Martín
26Iker Martínez
21M. Loum69'for Hugo Guillamón6.3
35C. Ferreres
13Arana
34Diego Matabuena Álvarez78'replaced by Pablo García
36B. Rubio

Match Stats

CastellónSporting Gijon
47%Ball Possession53%
2Corner Kicks3
1Yellow Cards2
14Total Shots8
6Shots on Goal3
5Shots off Goal2
6Shots Inside Box5
8Shots Outside Box3
3Blocked Shots3
11Fouls11
1Offsides5
3Goalkeeper Saves2
491Total Passes551
428Passes Accurate470
11Free Kicks10

Team Comparison

CastellónCastellón
Sporting GijonSporting Gijon
1726Elo Rating 1644
2.04Attack 1.78
2.58Defense 1.87
58%Hit Rate 83%
13.7Shots per Game 11.0
4.8Shots on Target 3.7
4.5Corners per Game 4.6
1.3Cards per Game 3.8

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy2.96 goals
📈BTTS Trend67% in H2H
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

CastellónCastellón
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.3 vs 0.7 in second half)
Sporting GijonSporting Gijon
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 6 meetings, all competitions

CastellónCastellón3Wins · 50%
Draws00%
Sporting GijonSporting Gijon3Wins · 50%
3.7Avg Goals
67%Both teams scored4 of 6
67%3+ goals4 of 6

Previous meetings

Segunda División15/03/2026
Sporting GijonCastellón
41
Segunda División05/10/2025
CastellónSporting Gijon
31
Segunda División05/05/2025
CastellónSporting Gijon
43
Segunda División14/10/2024
Sporting GijonCastellón
21
Segunda División24/01/2021
CastellónSporting Gijon
20
Segunda División02/11/2020
Sporting GijonCastellón
10

Recent Form

Sporting GijonSporting Gijon
6W1D3L

Referee Profile

Gorka Etayo Herrera92 matches

4.76Cards per match
4.56Yellow cards per match
0.20Red cards per match
27.0Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Gorka Etayo Herrera4.76
Other referees5.53

4.76 cards a match, 0.77 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.53).

Cards come from 25 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Segunda División 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1AlmeriaAlmeria1181222:9+1325DWWWW
2CastellónCastellón1072118:4+1423WLDWW
3EibarEibar1171320:13+722LDLWW
4GironaGirona1163222:10+1221WWDDW
5Granada CFGranada CF1162318:14+420WWWWL
6MallorcaMallorca1154213:6+719DDWDL
7Sporting GijonSporting Gijon1061311:9+219WWWLW
8OviedoOviedo1153315:12+318DWWLW
9BurgosBurgos1052313:10+317WLLWW
10SabadellSabadell1145211:9+217DLWDD
11CordobaCordoba1150617:20-315WWLWL
12TenerifeTenerife1135313:15-214DDDLD
13EldenseEldense1142513:15-214LWWWL
14Las PalmasLas Palmas1142514:19-514WLLDL
15ValladolidValladolid1133516:16012LLWDW
16Celta de Vigo IICelta de Vigo II1133516:21-512LDWLD
17LeganesLeganes113357:16-912DLLLL
18CadizCadiz1124514:14010WLLWD
19FC AndorraFC Andorra1031613:17-410LWDWL
20Real Sociedad IIReal Sociedad II1122714:22-88LLLLL
21AD Ceuta FCAD Ceuta FC1112810:25-155LLLDW
22AlbaceteAlbacete111198:22-144WLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1AlmeriaAlmeria1122:925
2CastellónCastellón1018:423
3EibarEibar1120:1322
4GironaGirona1122:1021
5Granada CFGranada CF1118:1420
6MallorcaMallorca1113:619
7Sporting GijonSporting Gijon1011:919
8OviedoOviedo1115:1218
9BurgosBurgos1013:1017
10SabadellSabadell1111:917
11CordobaCordoba1117:2015
12TenerifeTenerife1113:1514
13EldenseEldense1113:1514
14Las PalmasLas Palmas1114:1914
15ValladolidValladolid1116:1612
16Celta de Vigo IICelta de Vigo II1116:2112
17LeganesLeganes117:1612
18CadizCadiz1114:1410
19FC AndorraFC Andorra1013:1710
20Real Sociedad IIReal Sociedad II1114:228
21AD Ceuta FCAD Ceuta FC1110:255
22AlbaceteAlbacete118:224
PromotionRelegation

About the Castellón vs Sporting Gijon forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Castellón and Sporting Gijon in the Segunda División table

In the Segunda División table, Castellón are 2nd and Sporting Gijon 7th, 4 points apart. League goal record so far: Castellón 18-4, Sporting Gijon 11-9. The full standings are on the Segunda División Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Castellón have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. Sporting Gijon have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.