AC Milan vs Lecce Prediction
Italy · Regular Season - 5
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
AI Best Pick
72%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.26
SignalGOODModel66%SurpriseMediumGap-7.8%
Value Analysis
59%Trust
Corners Total
Corners Under 9.5
1.78
SignalSOLIDModel59%SurpriseMediumGap+5.4%
AC Milan Rest
3 days
Lecce Rest
7 days
AC Milan vs Lecce: result, form and history
Match Forecasts
Match Result
174%1.26
X17%6.00
29%11.75
Double Chance
1X91%1.04
X227%3.80
Both Teams to Score
Yes46%2.08
No54%1.67
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.89 + 0.85 = 2.74
Over 1.579%1.16
Over 2.558%1.60
Over 3.536%2.50
Under 1.521%4.55
Under 2.542%2.38
Under 3.564%1.52
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.5 + 3.4 = 8.9
Over 8.553%1.58
Over 9.541%1.99
Over 10.530%2.55
Under 8.547%2.25
Under 9.559%1.78
Under 10.570%1.45
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.6 + 2.2 = 3.8
Over 3.553%2.16
Over 4.533%3.37
Under 3.547%1.65
Under 4.567%1.29
Match Events
14'C. PulisicAssist: S. Pavlovic
46'N. Stulic INP. Esteban out
58'D. VeigaFoul
61'A. RabiotAssist: G. Ramos
70'A. Saelemaekers IND. Moreira out
70'C. Pulisic INR. Loftus-Cheek out
70'J. Monteiro INA. Fatah out
70'Y. Maleh INO. Ngom out
70'I. Ilic INM. Kaba out
73'D. Moreira
76'L. Modric INY. Musah out
76'P. Estupinan IND. Bartesaghi out
82'S. Pierotti INK. Ndri out
89'S. Chukwueze INF. Camarda out
Lineups
AC MilanLecce
4-3-3Coach: Eusebio Di FrancescoAvg ratingAvg rating
C16M. Maignan
34M. Gila
5K. De Winter
31S. Pavlović
21S. Chukwueze
14L. Modrić
12A. Rabiot
2P. Estupiñán
11C. Pulišić
56A. Saelemaekers
9G. Ramos
C30W. Falcone
17D. Veiga
4K. Gaspar
5J. Siebert
25A. Gallo
50S. Pierotti
20I. Ilić
14Y. Maleh
29L. Coulibaly
9N. Štulić
99J. MonteiroAC Milan Substitutes
22Diego Moreira70'for A. Saelemaekers73'
8Ruben Loftus-Cheek70'for C. Pulisic
80Yunus Musah76'for L. Modric
33Davide Bartesaghi76'for P. Estupinan
73Francesco Camarda89'for S. Chukwueze
96Lorenzo Torriani
1Pietro Terracciano
13Sankhoun Diawara
42Filippo Terracciano
46Matteo Gabbia
23Fikayo Tomori
28Christian Comotto
30Ardon Jashari
20Omari Hutchinson
70Alphadjo Cissè
Lecce Substitutes
22Paco Esteban46'for N. Stulic
79Oumar Ngom70'for Y. Maleh
77Mohamed Kaba70'for I. Ilic
7Amar Fatah70'for J. Monteiro
11Konan N'Dri82'for S. Pierotti
32Alexandru Borbei
1Marco Bleve
31Elijah Scott
18Gaby Jean
2Ali Dembélé
3Corrie Ndaba
28Olaf Gorter
8Sadik Fofana
Match Stats
AC MilanLecce 69%Ball Possession31%
2Corner Kicks3
0Yellow Cards1
10Total Shots6
4Shots on Goal3
2Shots off Goal1
8Shots Inside Box4
2Shots Outside Box2
4Blocked Shots2
9Fouls15
4Offsides1
3Goalkeeper Saves1
698Total Passes310
637Passes Accurate253
91%Pass Accuracy82%
Team Comparison
AC MilanLecce1840Elo Rating 1642
1.41Attack 1.14
1.03Defense 0.64
39%Hit Rate 17%
10.8Shots per Game 16.9
3.2Shots on Target 6.6
2.8Corners per Game 5.3
1.9Cards per Game 2.0
AI Insights
🏠Strong Home Advantage+198 Elo
📈BTTS Trend33% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming
📉Away Underperforming
Game State Tendencies
AC Milan- Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
- Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.2 vs 0.2 in second half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Lecce- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Head to Head
Last 9 meetings, all competitions
AC Milan7Wins · 78%Draws222%
Lecce0Wins · 0%
0Wins · 0%3.0Avg Goals
33%Both teams scored3 of 9
67%3+ goals6 of 9
Previous meetings
18/01/2026AC MilanLecce10
23/09/2025AC MilanLecce30
29/08/2025LecceAC Milan02
08/03/2025LecceAC Milan23
27/09/2024AC MilanLecce30
06/04/2024AC MilanLecce30
11/11/2023LecceAC Milan22
23/04/2023AC MilanLecce20
14/01/2023LecceAC Milan22
Recent Form
AC Milan4W4D2L
16/09/2026AC Milan
Benfica
LazioAC Milan
JuventusAC MilanAC Milan
Venezia
TorinoAC Milan
AC MilanBenfica02
L12/09/2026LazioAC Milan22
D06/09/2026JuventusAC Milan11
D28/08/2026AC MilanVenezia20
W23/08/2026TorinoAC Milan12
W15/08/2026
Manchester UnitedAC Milan
Manchester UnitedAC Milan24
W08/08/2026
ChelseaAC Milan
ChelseaAC Milan30
L05/08/2026AC Milan
Inter
AC MilanInter11
D25/07/2026
CelticAC Milan
CelticAC Milan22
D17/05/2026
GenoaAC Milan
GenoaAC Milan12
WLecce5W1D4L
13/09/2026Lecce
Monza
CagliariLecceLecce
AS RomaVeneziaLecce
PalermoLecce
LecceMonza32
W07/09/2026CagliariLecce10
L31/08/2026LecceAS Roma04
L23/08/2026VeneziaLecce02
W17/08/2026PalermoLecce20
L09/08/2026Lecce
SS Monopoli
LecceSS Monopoli10
W29/07/2026Lecce
Bistrica
LecceBistrica52
W25/07/2026Lecce
Istra 1961
LecceIstra 196122
D22/07/2026Lecce
FC Politehnica Timisoara
LecceFC Politehnica Timisoara01
L17/05/2026
SassuoloLecce
SassuoloLecce23
WReferee Profile
4.87Cards per match
4.60Yellow cards per match
0.27Red cards per match
27.9Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
4.87 cards a match, 0.40 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.47).
Cards come from 97 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lazio | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 25:9 | +16 | 29 | DWWWW |
| 2 | Inter | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 28:13 | +15 | 28 | WLWWW |
| 3 | AS Roma | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 31:10 | +21 | 27 | WWWDW |
| 4 | AC Milan | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 23:13 | +10 | 24 | WWLWW |
| 5 |  Como | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 18:10 | +8 | 23 | LWWWW |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 24:15 | +9 | 20 | LWWDW |
| 7 | Juventus | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 15:12 | +3 | 18 | DWLWL |
| 8 |  Bologna | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 16:14 | +2 | 17 | WWWWL |
| 9 | Cagliari | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 10:15 | -5 | 16 | WLLLL |
| 10 |  Napoli | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 18:14 | +4 | 15 | DLWDL |
| 11 | Torino | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 15:17 | -2 | 14 | DLLWW |
| 12 |  Atalanta | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 17:20 | -3 | 14 | WLDDL |
| 13 | Genoa | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 11:16 | -5 | 13 | LWWWL |
| 14 | Lecce | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 12:22 | -10 | 10 | DLLLW |
| 15 |  Fiorentina | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 17:25 | -8 | 9 | DWDLL |
| 16 |  Parma | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9:17 | -8 | 8 | LWDLL |
| 17 | Sassuolo | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 16:29 | -13 | 8 | LLLLL |
| 18 | Monza | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17:25 | -8 | 7 | LLLLW |
| 19 | Venezia | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 8:21 | -13 | 6 | WLLLW |
| 20 |  Udinese | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 12:25 | -13 | 5 | LLDLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lazio | 11 | 25:9 | 29 |
| 2 | Inter | 11 | 28:13 | 28 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 11 | 31:10 | 27 |
| 4 | AC Milan | 11 | 23:13 | 24 |
| 5 | Como | 11 | 18:10 | 23 |
| 6 | Frosinone | 11 | 24:15 | 20 |
| 7 | Juventus | 11 | 15:12 | 18 |
| 8 | Bologna | 11 | 16:14 | 17 |
| 9 | Cagliari | 11 | 10:15 | 16 |
| 10 | Napoli | 11 | 18:14 | 15 |
| 11 | Torino | 11 | 15:17 | 14 |
| 12 | Atalanta | 11 | 17:20 | 14 |
| 13 | Genoa | 11 | 11:16 | 13 |
| 14 | Lecce | 11 | 12:22 | 10 |
| 15 | Fiorentina | 11 | 17:25 | 9 |
| 16 | Parma | 11 | 9:17 | 8 |
| 17 | Sassuolo | 11 | 16:29 | 8 |
| 18 | Monza | 11 | 17:25 | 7 |
| 19 | Venezia | 11 | 8:21 | 6 |
| 20 | Udinese | 11 | 12:25 | 5 |
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About the AC Milan vs Lecce forecast
Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
AC Milan and Lecce in the Serie A table
In the Serie A table, AC Milan are 4th and Lecce 14th, 14 points apart. League goal record so far: AC Milan 23-13, Lecce 12-22. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
AC Milan have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.