Lecce vs Monza Prediction

Lecce
3-2
Finished
HT 3-1
Monza
Via del Mare, Lecce·Valerio Crezzini, Italy 13/09/2026
LecceLecce
3-2
Finished
MonzaMonza

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
Value Analysis
74%Trust
Total Cards
Cards Under 4.5
1.41
SignalHIGHModel74%SurpriseMediumGap+4.7%
Lecce Rest
5 days
Monza Rest
7 days

Lecce vs Monza: the result in context

Lecce beat Monza 3-2 in the Serie A on 13 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their history points to a close game: 10 previous meetings produced 1.5 goals a game. Referee Valerio Crezzini averages 3.66 cards a game, 0.78 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
38%2.75
X
32%3.10
2
30%2.76
Double Chance
1X
70%1.41
X2
62%1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%1.85
No
52%1.87
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.22 + 1.16 = 2.38
Over 1.5
65%1.39
Over 2.5
42%2.24
Over 3.5
18%4.00
Under 1.5
35%2.88
Under 2.5
58%1.66
Under 3.5
82%1.22
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.2 + 4 = 9.2
Over 8.5
51%1.86
Over 9.5
43%2.40
Over 10.5
32%3.25
Under 8.5
49%1.90
Under 9.5
57%1.52
Under 10.5
68%1.30
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.8 + 1.6 = 3.4
Over 3.5
44%1.97
Over 4.5
26%2.79
Under 3.5
56%1.80
Under 4.5
74%1.41

Match Events

3'L. CoulibalyAssist: I. Ilic
10'Tiago GabrielAssist: I. Ilic
20'R. MangasAssist: S. Birindelli
21'L. CoulibalyAssist: D. Veiga
38'K. NdriTripping
46'R. Mangas INA. Bakoune out
46'K. Ndri INS. Pierotti out
64'J. Robinson INP. Cutrone out
64'A. Colpani INE. Zeballos out
66'I. Ilic INO. Ngom out
74'N. Stulic INP. Esteban out
74'J. Monteiro INA. Fatah out
75'G. Varela INO. Forson out
84'E. Akinsanmiro INM. Mout out
85'Y. Maleh INM. Kaba out
89'E. Zeballos
90'D. VeigaUnsportsmanlike conduct

Lineups

Lecce
4-3-3Coach: Eusebio Di Francesco
Monza
3-4-2-1Coach: Ivan Juric
Avg rating7.03
Avg rating6.63
Wladimiro FalconeC7.630W. Falcone
Danilo Veiga7.717D. Veiga
Jamil Siebert6.35J. Siebert
Tiago Gabriel7.644T. Gabriel
Antonino Gallo7.325A. Gallo
Lassana Coulibaly8.929L. Coulibaly
Ivan Ilić7.720I. Ilić
Youssef Maleh6.314Y. Maleh
N'Dri Konan6.211N. Konan
Nikola Štulić6.29N. Štulić
Joël Monteiro6.999J. Monteiro
Demba Thiam5.620D. Thiam
Eddy Kouadio6.260E. Kouadio
Lorenzo Lucchesi6.63L. Lucchesi
Andrea Carboni6.944A. Carboni
Samuele BirindelliC7.219S. Birindelli
Michael Folorunsho6.990M. Folorunsho
Ebenezer Akinsanmiro6.314E. Akinsanmiro
Ricardo Mangas7.37R. Mangas
Andrea Colpani6.528A. Colpani
Jay Robinson6.746J. Robinson
Gustavo Varela6.99G. Varela

Lecce Substitutes

50Santiago Pierotti46'for K. Ndri6.3
79Oumar Ngom66'for I. Ilic7.0
32Alexandru Borbei
1Marco Bleve
4Kialonda Gaspar
3Corrie Ndaba
18Gaby Jean
2Ali Dembélé
31Elijah Scott
77Mohamed Kaba85'for Y. Maleh
8Sadik Fofana
28Olaf Gorter
7Amar Fatah74'for J. Monteiro6.5
22Paco Esteban74'for N. Stulic6.9

Monza Substitutes

24Adam Bakoune46'for R. Mangas6.3
22Exequiel Zeballos64'for A. Colpani89'7.3
10Patrick Cutrone64'for J. Robinson6.5
1Noel Törnqvist
43Aljaz Strajnar
5Yvan Maye
2Saba Goglichidze
6Valentin Antov
8Manga Foe Ondoa
21Leonardo Colombo
80Mathis Mout84'for E. Akinsanmiro6.6
11Omari Forson75'for G. Varela6.3
47Dany Mota

Match Stats

LecceMonza
39%Ball Possession61%
4Corner Kicks6
2Yellow Cards0
7Total Shots19
3Shots on Goal11
3Shots off Goal5
6Shots Inside Box14
1Shots Outside Box5
1Blocked Shots3
14Fouls13
0Offsides4
8Goalkeeper Saves0
321Total Passes493
234Passes Accurate407
73%Pass Accuracy83%

Team Comparison

LecceLecce
MonzaMonza
1642Elo Rating 1668
1.14Attack 1.69
0.64Defense 0.54
17%Hit Rate 17%
16.9Shots per Game 10.0
6.6Shots on Target 4.6
5.3Corners per Game 3.0
2.0Cards per Game 1.9

AI Insights

📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

LecceLecce
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
MonzaMonza
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1 vs 0.7 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

LecceLecce4Wins · 40%
Draws550%
MonzaMonza1Wins · 10%
1.5Avg Goals
40%Both teams scored4 of 10
20%3+ goals2 of 10

Previous meetings

Serie A16/02/2025
MonzaLecce
00
Serie A15/12/2024
LecceMonza
21
Serie A27/04/2024
LecceMonza
11
Serie A17/09/2023
MonzaLecce
11
Serie A28/05/2023
MonzaLecce
01
Serie A11/09/2022
LecceMonza
11
Serie B27/02/2022
MonzaLecce
01
Serie B01/10/2021
LecceMonza
30
Serie B04/05/2021
MonzaLecce
10
Serie B04/01/2021
LecceMonza
00

Recent Form

LecceLecce
4W1D5L
07/09/2026
CagliariLecce
10
L
31/08/2026
LecceAS Roma
04
L
23/08/2026
VeneziaLecce
02
W
17/08/2026
PalermoLecce
20
L
09/08/2026
LecceSS Monopoli
10
W
29/07/2026
LecceBistrica
52
W
25/07/2026
LecceIstra 1961
22
D
22/07/2026
LecceFC Politehnica Timisoara
01
L
17/05/2026
SassuoloLecce
23
W
09/05/2026
LecceJuventus
01
L
MonzaMonza
4W2D4L
06/09/2026
ParmaMonza
11
D
01/09/2026
TorinoMonza
01
W
29/08/2026
MonzaUdinese
23
L
22/08/2026
InterMonza
41
L
14/08/2026
MonzaAvellino
30
W
07/08/2026
MonzaPadova
33
D
30/07/2026
MonzaAris Thessalonikis
13
L
24/07/2026
GalatasarayMonza
02
W
18/07/2026
MonzaPRO Vercelli
43
W
29/05/2026
MonzaCatanzaro
02
L

Referee Profile

Valerio Crezzini92 matches

3.66Cards per match
3.61Yellow cards per match
0.05Red cards per match
27.4Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Valerio Crezzini3.66
Other referees4.44

3.66 cards a match, 0.78 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.44).

Cards come from 41 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1LazioLazio1192025:9+1629DWWWW
2AS RomaAS Roma1183031:10+2127WWWDW
3InterInter1081126:13+1325LWWWW
4ComoComo1072118:8+1023WWWWD
5AC MilanAC Milan1063121:12+921WLWWD
6FrosinoneFrosinone1162324:15+920LWWDW
7JuventusJuventus1052313:10+317WLWLD
8BolognaBologna1152416:14+217WWWWL
9CagliariCagliari1151510:15-516WLLLL
10NapoliNapoli1143418:14+415DLWDL
11TorinoTorino1142515:17-214DLLWW
12GenoaGenoa1041510:14-413WWWLW
13AtalantaAtalanta1032516:20-411LDDLW
14LecceLecce1131712:22-1010DLLLW
15FiorentinaFiorentina1022615:23-88WDLLL
16ParmaParma112279:17-88LWDLL
17SassuoloSassuolo1122716:29-138LLLLL
18MonzaMonza1021717:24-77LLLWL
19VeneziaVenezia112098:21-136WLLLW
20UdineseUdinese1112812:25-135LLDLL
#TeamMPGPts
1LazioLazio1125:929
2AS RomaAS Roma1131:1027
3InterInter1026:1325
4ComoComo1018:823
5AC MilanAC Milan1021:1221
6FrosinoneFrosinone1124:1520
7JuventusJuventus1013:1017
8BolognaBologna1116:1417
9CagliariCagliari1110:1516
10NapoliNapoli1118:1415
11TorinoTorino1115:1714
12GenoaGenoa1010:1413
13AtalantaAtalanta1016:2011
14LecceLecce1112:2210
15FiorentinaFiorentina1015:238
16ParmaParma119:178
17SassuoloSassuolo1116:298
18MonzaMonza1017:247
19VeneziaVenezia118:216
20UdineseUdinese1112:255
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation

About the Lecce vs Monza forecast

The forecasts for this Serie A match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Lecce and Monza in the Serie A table

In the Serie A table, Lecce are 14th and Monza 18th, 3 points apart. League goal record so far: Lecce 12-22, Monza 17-24. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.