Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau Prediction
Peru · Clausura - 12
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
79%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.20
SignalHIGHModel76%SurpriseMediumGap-4.8%
Value Analysis
78%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.29
SignalSTRONGModel78%SurpriseMediumGap+3.0%
Alianza Lima Rest
6 days
Atletico Grau Rest
9 days
Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau: the result in context
Alianza Lima beat Atletico Grau 3-1 in the Primera División on 18 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Alianza Lima have had the better of this fixture, winning 6 of the 9 previous meetings, which averaged 2.1 goals a game.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
171%1.29
X20%5.00
29%9.10
Double Chance
1X91%1.05
X229%3.30
Both Teams to Score
Yes48%2.10
No52%1.67
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.94 + 0.88 = 2.82
Over 1.579%1.20
Over 2.556%1.70
Over 3.535%2.75
Under 1.521%3.96
Under 2.544%2.06
Under 3.565%1.40
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.8 + 3.1 = 9.8
Over 8.563%1.68
Over 9.551%2.13
Over 10.540%2.83
Under 8.537%2.03
Under 9.549%1.62
Under 10.560%1.34
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.6 + 3 = 4.7
Over 3.568%-
Over 4.550%-
Under 3.532%-
Under 4.550%-
Match Events
11'Kevin QuevedoAssist: Federico Girotti
33'Esteban PavezDissent
44'Aldair VásquezAssist: Gabriel Alfaro
45'Kevin Quevedo INGaspar Gentile out
45'Esteban Pavez INJesús Castillo out
45+2'Kevin QuevedoFoul
50'Erick Castillo
54'Mateo Antoni Pavon INGianfranco Chavez out
61'Aldair Vásquez INPablo Lavandeira out
61'Diego Barreto INNicolás Delgadillo out
65'Adrián FernándezFoul
77'Adrián Fernández INLuis Benites out
78'Rodrigo Tapia INYamir Ruidiaz Misitich out
81'Jairo Vélez
83'Jairo Vélez
85'Erick Castillo INPiero Cari out
87'Jesús CastilloFoul
89'Gabriel Alfaro INElsar Rodas out
90+2'Federico Girotti INLuis Ramos out
Lineups
Alianza LimaAtletico Grau
5-4-1Coach: G. AmeliAvg ratingAvg rating
1A. Duarte
17L. Advíncula
6R. Garcés
3M. Antoni
13M. Huamán
5E. Pavez
7F. Gaibor
27K. Quevedo
20J. Vélez
99F. Girotti
8E. Castillo
1P. Álvarez
8C. Vásquez
27R. Tapia
2L. Acevedo
3I. Tapia
25G. Alfaro
20A. Vásquez
13F. Oncoy
5R. Guarderas
7D. Barreto
99A. FernándezAlianza Lima Substitutes
11A. Cantero
2N. Díaz
25G. Gentile45'for Kevin Quevedo
9L. Ramos90+2'for Federico Girotti
12Á. de la Cruz
15J. Castillo45'for Esteban Pavez87'
21P. Cari85'for Erick Castillo
31C. Carbajal
4G. Chávez54'for Mateo Antoni Pavon
Atletico Grau Substitutes
96L. Benítes77'for Adrián Fernández
33J. Calderón
21E. Correa
11N. Delgadillo61'for Diego Barreto
15P. Lavandeira61'for Aldair Vásquez
6E. Rodas89'for Gabriel Alfaro
4D. Rodríguez
16J. Ataupillco
24Yamir Ruidíaz Misitich78'for Rodrigo Tapia
Match Stats
Alianza LimaAtletico Grau 60%Ball Possession40%
6Corner Kicks1
4Yellow Cards1
18Total Shots8
6Shots on Goal4
5Shots off Goal4
11Shots Inside Box5
7Shots Outside Box3
7Blocked Shots0
15Fouls8
3Offsides5
3Goalkeeper Saves3
482Total Passes309
407Passes Accurate235
6Free Kicks13
Team Comparison
Alianza LimaAtletico Grau1715Elo Rating 1554
1.96Attack 1.24
2.03Defense 0.88
69%Hit Rate 17%
17.3Shots per Game 11.1
4.3Shots on Target 5.2
5.9Corners per Game 4.0
1.8Cards per Game 2.6
AI Insights
🏠Strong Home Advantage+161 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy2.81 goals
📈BTTS Trend56% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming
📉Away Underperforming
Game State Tendencies
Alianza Lima- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Scores more in 2nd half (1.1 vs 0.8 in first half)
Atletico Grau- Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
Head to Head
Last 9 meetings, all competitions
Alianza Lima6Wins · 67%Draws222%
Atletico Grau1Wins · 11%
1Wins · 11%2.1Avg Goals
56%Both teams scored5 of 9
33%3+ goals3 of 9
Previous meetings
26/04/2026Atletico GrauAlianza Lima01
02/10/2025Alianza LimaAtletico Grau21
10/05/2025Atletico GrauAlianza Lima11
18/09/2024Atletico GrauAlianza Lima10
15/04/2024Alianza LimaAtletico Grau20
24/06/2023Alianza LimaAtletico Grau20
26/03/2023Atletico GrauAlianza Lima12
10/07/2022Atletico GrauAlianza Lima12
05/02/2022Alianza LimaAtletico Grau11
Recent Form
Alianza Lima4W3D3L
12/10/2026
CuscoAlianza LimaAlianza Lima
ADTAlianza Lima
Universitario
Juan Pablo II CollegeAlianza LimaAlianza Lima
Deportivo Garcilaso
FBC MelgarAlianza Lima
Sport BoysAlianza LimaAlianza Lima
Alianza Atletico
CuscoAlianza Lima12
W01/10/2026Alianza Lima
Palestino
19/09/2026Alianza LimaPalestino12
LAlianza LimaADT20
W13/09/2026Alianza LimaUniversitario12
L06/09/2026Juan Pablo II CollegeAlianza Lima11
D30/08/2026Alianza LimaDeportivo Garcilaso01
L23/08/2026FBC MelgarAlianza Lima11
D16/08/2026Alianza Lima
UTC Cajamarca
09/08/2026Alianza LimaUTC Cajamarca10
WSport BoysAlianza Lima11
D02/08/2026Alianza LimaAlianza Atletico31
WAtletico Grau4W2D4L
08/10/2026Atletico Grau
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Sporting CristalAtletico GrauAtletico GrauAlianza AtleticoDeportivo GarcilasoAtletico GrauAtletico GrauFBC Melgar
FC CajamarcaAtletico GrauAtletico Grau
Comerciantes UnidosJuan Pablo II CollegeAtletico GrauAtletico GrauSport Boys
Atletico GrauClub Deportivo Los Chankas00
D19/09/2026Sporting CristalAtletico Grau31
L13/09/2026Atletico GrauAlianza Atletico31
W06/09/2026Deportivo GarcilasoAtletico Grau42
L01/09/2026Atletico GrauFBC Melgar10
W26/08/2026Atletico GrauSport Boys
21/08/2026Atletico GrauSport Boys3242
LFC CajamarcaAtletico Grau13
W14/08/2026Atletico GrauComerciantes Unidos10
W08/08/2026Juan Pablo II CollegeAtletico Grau00
D01/08/2026Atletico GrauSport Boys01
LReferee Profile
5.57Cards per match
5.09Yellow cards per match
0.48Red cards per match
26.2Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
5.57 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.40).
Cards come from 125 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
Primera Division: Tabla Anual
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 29 | 18 | 8 | 3 | 49:20 | +29 | 62 | WWWLW |
| 2 | FBC Melgar | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 53:34 | +19 | 53 | WLWWL |
| 3 | Universitario | 29 | 15 | 8 | 6 | 49:34 | +15 | 53 | LWLWD |
| 4 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 41:29 | +12 | 48 | WLLWD |
| 5 |  Cienciano | 29 | 14 | 5 | 10 | 49:40 | +9 | 47 | DLWWW |
| 6 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 38:46 | -8 | 46 | LWWWW |
| 7 | Cusco | 29 | 14 | 3 | 12 | 42:42 | 0 | 45 | WWLWW |
| 8 | Sporting Cristal | 29 | 13 | 5 | 11 | 53:42 | +11 | 44 | LLWLL |
| 9 | Alianza Atletico | 29 | 12 | 7 | 10 | 44:40 | +4 | 43 | WLLDD |
| 10 |  Sport Huancayo | 29 | 12 | 5 | 12 | 40:45 | -5 | 41 | LWDDL |
| 11 | Sport Boys | 29 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 30:31 | -1 | 38 | DWLLW |
| 12 | Juan Pablo II College | 29 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 45:53 | -8 | 38 | DDLWL |
| 13 | Atletico Grau | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | 27:34 | -7 | 33 | LWLDD |
| 14 | Comerciantes Unidos | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 38:43 | -5 | 31 | WWDDD |
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 29 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 41:53 | -12 | 28 | LLDLL |
| 16 |  UCV Moquegua | 29 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 25:43 | -18 | 28 | WLWWL |
| 17 | ADT | 29 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 30:44 | -14 | 26 | WDLLD |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 30 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 33:54 | -21 | 15 | LDLDL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 29 | 49:20 | 62 |
| 2 | FBC Melgar | 30 | 53:34 | 53 |
| 3 | Universitario | 29 | 49:34 | 53 |
| 4 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 29 | 41:29 | 48 |
| 5 | Cienciano | 29 | 49:40 | 47 |
| 6 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 29 | 38:46 | 46 |
| 7 | Cusco | 29 | 42:42 | 45 |
| 8 | Sporting Cristal | 29 | 53:42 | 44 |
| 9 | Alianza Atletico | 29 | 44:40 | 43 |
| 10 | Sport Huancayo | 29 | 40:45 | 41 |
| 11 | Sport Boys | 29 | 30:31 | 38 |
| 12 | Juan Pablo II College | 29 | 45:53 | 38 |
| 13 | Atletico Grau | 29 | 27:34 | 33 |
| 14 | Comerciantes Unidos | 29 | 38:43 | 31 |
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 29 | 41:53 | 28 |
| 16 | UCV Moquegua | 29 | 25:43 | 28 |
| 17 | ADT | 29 | 30:44 | 26 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 30 | 33:54 | 15 |
Primera Division: Apertura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 17 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 30:8 | +22 | 40 | WWWLW |
| 2 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 25:21 | +4 | 34 | LWWWW |
| 3 | Cienciano | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 34:22 | +12 | 33 | DLWWW |
| 4 | Universitario | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 24:15 | +9 | 29 | LWLWD |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 29:20 | +9 | 28 | WLWWL |
| 6 | Cusco | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 21:24 | -3 | 27 | WWLWW |
| 7 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 21:18 | +3 | 26 | WLLWD |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 20:18 | +2 | 21 | WLLDD |
| 9 | Comerciantes Unidos | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 18:20 | -2 | 21 | WWDDD |
| 10 | ADT | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 22:21 | +1 | 20 | WDLLD |
| 11 | Sport Boys | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 15:19 | -4 | 20 | DWLLW |
| 12 | Sporting Cristal | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 28:30 | -2 | 19 | LLWLL |
| 13 | UTC Cajamarca | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 21:26 | -5 | 18 | LDLDL |
| 14 | UCV Moquegua | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 17:24 | -7 | 18 | WLWWL |
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 23:28 | -5 | 17 | LLDLL |
| 16 | Atletico Grau | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 12:18 | -6 | 16 | LWLDD |
| 17 | Sport Huancayo | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 21:31 | -10 | 16 | LWDDL |
| 18 | Juan Pablo II College | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 22:40 | -18 | 16 | DDLWL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 17 | 30:8 | 40 |
| 2 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 17 | 25:21 | 34 |
| 3 | Cienciano | 17 | 34:22 | 33 |
| 4 | Universitario | 17 | 24:15 | 29 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 17 | 29:20 | 28 |
| 6 | Cusco | 17 | 21:24 | 27 |
| 7 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 17 | 21:18 | 26 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 17 | 20:18 | 21 |
| 9 | Comerciantes Unidos | 17 | 18:20 | 21 |
| 10 | ADT | 17 | 22:21 | 20 |
| 11 | Sport Boys | 17 | 15:19 | 20 |
| 12 | Sporting Cristal | 17 | 28:30 | 19 |
| 13 | UTC Cajamarca | 17 | 21:26 | 18 |
| 14 | UCV Moquegua | 17 | 17:24 | 18 |
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 17 | 23:28 | 17 |
| 16 | Atletico Grau | 17 | 12:18 | 16 |
| 17 | Sport Huancayo | 17 | 21:31 | 16 |
| 18 | Juan Pablo II College | 17 | 22:40 | 16 |
Primera Division: Clausura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting Cristal | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 25:12 | +13 | 25 | LLWLL |
| 2 | FBC Melgar | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 24:14 | +10 | 25 | WLWWL |
| 3 | Sport Huancayo | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 19:14 | +5 | 25 | LWDDL |
| 4 | Universitario | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 25:19 | +6 | 24 | LWLWD |
| 5 | Juan Pablo II College | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 23:13 | +10 | 22 | DDLWL |
| 6 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 20:11 | +9 | 22 | WLLWD |
| 7 | Alianza Lima | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 19:12 | +7 | 22 | WWWLW |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 24:22 | +2 | 22 | WLLDD |
| 9 | Cusco | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 21:18 | +3 | 18 | WWLWW |
| 10 | Sport Boys | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 15:12 | +3 | 18 | DWLLW |
| 11 | Atletico Grau | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 15:16 | -1 | 17 | LWLDD |
| 12 | Cienciano | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 15:18 | -3 | 14 | DLWWW |
| 13 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13:25 | -12 | 12 | LWWWW |
| 14 | FC Cajamarca | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 18:25 | -7 | 11 | LLDLL |
| 15 | Comerciantes Unidos | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 20:23 | -3 | 10 | WWDDD |
| 16 | UCV Moquegua | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8:19 | -11 | 10 | WLWWL |
| 17 | ADT | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 8:23 | -15 | 6 | WDLLD |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 13 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 12:28 | -16 | 2 | LDLDL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting Cristal | 12 | 25:12 | 25 |
| 2 | FBC Melgar | 13 | 24:14 | 25 |
| 3 | Sport Huancayo | 12 | 19:14 | 25 |
| 4 | Universitario | 12 | 25:19 | 24 |
| 5 | Juan Pablo II College | 12 | 23:13 | 22 |
| 6 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 12 | 20:11 | 22 |
| 7 | Alianza Lima | 12 | 19:12 | 22 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 12 | 24:22 | 22 |
| 9 | Cusco | 12 | 21:18 | 18 |
| 10 | Sport Boys | 12 | 15:12 | 18 |
| 11 | Atletico Grau | 12 | 15:16 | 17 |
| 12 | Cienciano | 12 | 15:18 | 14 |
| 13 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 12 | 13:25 | 12 |
| 14 | FC Cajamarca | 12 | 18:25 | 11 |
| 15 | Comerciantes Unidos | 12 | 20:23 | 10 |
| 16 | UCV Moquegua | 12 | 8:19 | 10 |
| 17 | ADT | 12 | 8:23 | 6 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 13 | 12:28 | 2 |
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This match
About the Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau forecast
The forecasts for this Primera División match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Alianza Lima and Atletico Grau in the Primera División table
In the Primera División table, Alianza Lima are 1st and Atletico Grau 13th, 29 points apart. League goal record so far: Alianza Lima 49-20, Atletico Grau 27-34. The full standings are on the Primera División Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.