Atalanta vs Venezia Prediction

Atalanta
3-1
Finished
HT 3-1
Venezia
New Balance Arena, Bergamo·Paride Tremolada 12/10/2026
AtalantaAtalanta
3-1
Finished
VeneziaVenezia

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
AI Best Pick
64%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.50
SignalSOLIDModel64%SurpriseMediumGap-3.0%
Value Analysis
74%Trust
Away Cards
Away Cards Over 1.5
1.50
SignalHIGHModel74%SurpriseMediumGap+7.1%
Atalanta Rest
22 days
Venezia Rest
22 days

Atalanta vs Venezia: result, form and history

Atalanta beat Venezia 3-1 in the Serie A on 12 Oct 2026. It was in line with recent form: Atalanta had won 2 of their previous five, compared with none for Venezia.

Atalanta have had the better of this fixture, winning 4 of the 5 previous meetings, which averaged 2.4 goals a game. Referee Paride Tremolada averages 5.45 cards a game, 0.86 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
62%1.57
X
21%4.40
2
17%5.50
Double Chance
1X
84%1.15
X2
38%2.40
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%1.60
No
45%2.25
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.94 + 0.91 = 2.85
Over 1.5
81%1.14
Over 2.5
62%1.50
Over 3.5
40%2.32
Under 1.5
19%4.95
Under 2.5
38%2.50
Under 3.5
60%1.62
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.5 + 4.1 = 9.6
Over 8.5
61%1.77
Over 9.5
51%2.25
Over 10.5
37%3.12
Under 8.5
39%1.97
Under 9.5
49%1.57
Under 10.5
63%1.31
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.9 + 2.6 = 4.5
Over 3.5
66%1.92
Over 4.5
47%3.11
Under 3.5
34%1.80
Under 4.5
53%1.34

Match Events

4'Franck KessiéAssist: Nikola Krstović
6'Nikola KrstovićAssist: Elif Elmas
8'Thierry Correia INRichie Sagrado out
18'Matias MorenoFoul
30'Nikola Krstović
37'Antoine HainautAssist: Richie Sagrado
42'Juan JesusFoul
60'Charles De Ketelaere INLazar Samardzic out
67'Giorgio Scalvini INSead Kolašinac out
67'Raoul Bellanova INLorenzo Bernasconi out
76'Jonathan Rowe INNicola Zalewski out
76'Franck Kessié INGianluca Gaetano out
83'Toma Bašić INThorir Johann Helgason out
83'Matias Moreno INJoël Schingtienne out
83'Akor Adams INLion Lauberbach out
87'Simon Sohm INAlbion Rrahmani out
88'Card upgrade confirmedElif Elmas
89'Elif ElmasSerious foul

Lineups

Atalanta
4-2-3-1Coach: M. Sarri
Venezia
3-5-2Coach: G. Stroppa
Avg rating6.85
Avg rating6.47
M. Carnesecchi6.729M. Carnesecchi
R. Bellanova6.916R. Bellanova
T. Kristensen6.631T. Kristensen
G. Scalvini6.742G. Scalvini
D. Zappacosta6.677D. Zappacosta
F. Kessié7.819F. Kessié
Éderson6.813Éderson
E. Elmas7.299E. Elmas
C. De Ketelaere7.017C. De Ketelaere
J. Rowe6.411J. Rowe
N. Krstović8.890N. Krstović
F. Stanković7.21F. Stanković
R. Halhal6.225R. Halhal
Juan Jesus6.415J. Jesus
M. Moreno5.62M. Moreno
A. Hainaut7.918A. Hainaut
Kike Pérez6.971K. Pérez
S. Sohm6.619S. Sohm
T. Bašić6.826T. Bašić
Thierry Correia5.814T. Correia
J. Yeboah6.410J. Yeboah
A. Adams6.345A. Adams

Atalanta Substitutes

59N. Zalewski76'for Jonathan Rowe6.3
57M. Sportiello
51M. Sonzogni
9G. Scamacca
10L. Samardžić60'for Charles De Ketelaere6.9
18G. Raspadori
8Mario Pasalic
40R. Obrić
23S. Kolašinac67'for Giorgio Scalvini6.4
41J. Idele
70G. Gaetano76'for Franck Kessié6.3
47L. Bernasconi67'for Raoul Bellanova6.6

Venezia Substitutes

77Toni Fernández
3J. Schingtienne83'for Matias Moreno5.9
95A. Gomes
5R. Haps
21Þ. Helgason83'for Toma Bašić5.8
29L. Lauberbach83'for Akor Adams6.2
56K. Lisman
16R. Mohammed
96L. Montipò
55S. Panada
7A. Rrahmani87'for Simon Sohm6.5
20R. Sagrado8'for Thierry Correia7.0
8Lamine Dabo
30M. Dagasso
36Lorenzo Berardi

Match Stats

AtalantaVenezia
36%Ball Possession64%
8Corner Kicks7
0Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
22Total Shots19
11Shots on Goal4
6Shots off Goal9
16Shots Inside Box10
6Shots Outside Box9
5Blocked Shots6
14Fouls6
0Offsides5
3Goalkeeper Saves7
331Total Passes581
275Passes Accurate526
6Free Kicks10

Team Comparison

AtalantaAtalanta
VeneziaVenezia
1785Elo Rating 1653
1.54Attack 1.11
1.13Defense 0.84
36%Hit Rate 27%
16.2Shots per Game 13.9
4.7Shots on Target 4.2
6.1Corners per Game 3.6
1.8Cards per Game 3.1

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+132 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy2.84 goals
📈BTTS Trend20% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

AtalantaAtalanta
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.1 vs 0.5 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
VeneziaVenezia
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.7 vs 0.4 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 5 meetings, all competitions

AtalantaAtalanta4Wins · 80%
Draws120%
VeneziaVenezia0Wins · 0%
2.4Avg Goals
20%Both teams scored1 of 5
40%3+ goals2 of 5

Previous meetings

Serie A01/03/2025
AtalantaVenezia
00
Serie A20/10/2024
VeneziaAtalanta
02
Serie A23/04/2022
VeneziaAtalanta
13
Coppa Italia12/01/2022
AtalantaVenezia
20
Serie A30/11/2021
AtalantaVenezia
40

Recent Form

AtalantaAtalanta
5W1D4L
20/09/2026
JuventusAtalanta
20
L
12/09/2026
AtalantaCagliari
12
L
05/09/2026
AS RomaAtalanta
21
L
31/08/2026
AtalantaBologna
10
W
27/08/2026
Hapoel Tel AvivAtalanta
01
W
23/08/2026
AtalantaSassuolo
21
W
20/08/2026
AtalantaHapoel Tel Aviv
00
D
14/08/2026
AtalantaAthletic Club
10
W
08/08/2026
FC Schalke 04Atalanta
03
W
02/08/2026
FeyenoordAtalanta
21
L

Referee Profile

Paride Tremolada111 matches

5.45Cards per match
5.18Yellow cards per match
0.27Red cards per match
27.2Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Paride Tremolada5.45
Other referees4.59

5.45 cards a match, 0.86 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.59).

Cards come from 55 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1LazioLazio981022:7+1525WWWWW
2InterInter871023:10+1322WWWDW
3AS RomaAS Roma853019:6+1318DWDDW
4AC MilanAC Milan853016:7+918WWDWD
5ComoComo852114:7+717WWDLW
6FrosinoneFrosinone842217:13+414DWLWD
7JuventusJuventus842211:8+314WLDWL
8TorinoTorino841313:11+213WWWDL
9CagliariCagliari84136:9-313LLDWW
10NapoliNapoli832313:10+311DLWDW
11AtalantaAtalanta831414:15-110DLWLL
12LecceLecce83059:14-59LWLLW
13BolognaBologna82248:10-28WLWDL
14SassuoloSassuolo922514:22-88LLLDL
15MonzaMonza821515:18-37LWLWL
16GenoaGenoa82156:13-77WLWLD
17UdineseUdinese81169:18-94LLLLL
18FiorentinaFiorentina81169:19-104LLLDW
19ParmaParma81165:15-104LLLWL
20VeneziaVenezia81076:17-113LWLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1LazioLazio922:725
2InterInter823:1022
3AS RomaAS Roma819:618
4AC MilanAC Milan816:718
5ComoComo814:717
6FrosinoneFrosinone817:1314
7JuventusJuventus811:814
8TorinoTorino813:1113
9CagliariCagliari86:913
10NapoliNapoli813:1011
11AtalantaAtalanta814:1510
12LecceLecce89:149
13BolognaBologna88:108
14SassuoloSassuolo914:228
15MonzaMonza815:187
16GenoaGenoa86:137
17UdineseUdinese89:184
18FiorentinaFiorentina89:194
19ParmaParma85:154
20VeneziaVenezia86:173
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation

About the Atalanta vs Venezia forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Atalanta and Venezia in the Serie A table

In the Serie A table, Atalanta are 11th and Venezia 20th, 7 points apart. League goal record so far: Atalanta 14-15, Venezia 6-17. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.