BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava Prediction

BFC Daugavpils
2-1
Finished
HT 1-0
FS Jelgava
Stadions Celtnieks, Daugavpils 01/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
3.0 / 10
AI Best Pick
77%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.25
SignalHIGHModel52%SurpriseMediumGap-3.1%
BFC Daugavpils Rest
5 days
FS Jelgava Rest
5 days

BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava: the result in context

BFC Daugavpils beat FS Jelgava 2-1 in the Virsliga on 1 Aug 2026. It was in line with recent form: BFC Daugavpils had won 3 of their previous five, compared with 1 for FS Jelgava.

Their history points to a close game: 10 previous meetings produced 1.5 goals a game. BFC Daugavpils tend to win more corners, 5.0 a game to 1.9 for FS Jelgava.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
53%2.02
X
24%3.30
2
23%3.30
Double Chance
1X
77%1.25
X2
47%1.65
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%1.67
No
56%2.05
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.2 + 1 = 2.20
Over 1.5
63%1.25
Over 2.5
38%1.83
Over 3.5
18%2.98
Under 1.5
37%3.58
Under 2.5
62%1.89
Under 3.5
82%1.33
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

11'D. AyebadiepreyeAssist: C. Taty
38'Z. Ouled-Haj-M'handFoul
45+1'M. SemeskoFoul
48'J. YakubuAssist: A. Traore
53'R. SkrebelsFoul
56'R. Melkis
62'D. AyebadiepreyeFoul
64'R. Becers INM. Pudil out
64'A. Petersons INF. Hasek out
68'T. Rataj ING. Patika out
81'R. Melkis INA. Dreimanis out
87'K. AlekseiciksFoul

Lineups

BFC Daugavpils
4-2-3-1Coach: Kirils Kurbatovs
FS Jelgava
5-4-1Coach: Aleksandrs Basovs
J. Beks12J. Beks
E. Ivanovs10E. Ivanovs
R. Skrebels8R. Skrebels
J. Yakubu11J. Yakubu
J. Novikovs13J. Novikovs
K. Aļekseičiks27K. Aļekseičiks
A. Pētersons19A. Pētersons
R. Bečers9R. Bečers
M. Hašek11M. Hašek
G. Žaleiko29G. Žaleiko
R. Meļķis8R. Meļķis
T. Rataj17T. Rataj

BFC Daugavpils Substitutes

77R. Aizups

FS Jelgava Substitutes

23Ā. Dreimanis
24Filip Hašek64'replaced by A. Petersons
21G. Kačanovs
16T. Leitis
22M. Pudil64'replaced by R. Becers
30S. Belaník

Team Comparison

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils
FS JelgavaFS Jelgava
1526Elo Rating 1376
1.49Attack 1.14
2.64Defense 0.30
86%Hit Rate 0%
11.4Shots per Game 10.8
5.3Shots on Target 7.5
5.0Corners per Game 1.9
1.4Cards per Game 0.5

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+150 Elo
📈BTTS Trend20% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0.6 in first half)
FS JelgavaFS Jelgava
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.7 vs 0.4 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils5Wins · 50%
Draws440%
FS JelgavaFS Jelgava1Wins · 10%
1.5Avg Goals
20%Both teams scored2 of 10
20%3+ goals2 of 10

Previous meetings

Virsliga31/05/2026
FS JelgavaBFC Daugavpils
11
Virsliga16/04/2026
BFC DaugavpilsFS Jelgava
10
Virsliga18/10/2025
FS JelgavaBFC Daugavpils
00
Virsliga27/07/2025
BFC DaugavpilsFS Jelgava
20
Virsliga25/05/2025
BFC DaugavpilsFS Jelgava
10
Virsliga10/04/2025
FS JelgavaBFC Daugavpils
41
Virsliga01/09/2024
FS JelgavaBFC Daugavpils
00
Virsliga21/06/2024
BFC DaugavpilsFS Jelgava
30
Virsliga03/05/2024
BFC DaugavpilsFS Jelgava
10
Virsliga09/03/2024
FS JelgavaBFC Daugavpils
00

Recent Form

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils
4W4D2L
26/07/2026
AudaBFC Daugavpils
10
L
19/07/2026
Ogre UnitedBFC Daugavpils
04
W
11/07/2026
Riga MarinersBFC Daugavpils
5363
W
04/07/2026
BFC DaugavpilsFK Liepaja
31
W
30/06/2026
Rīgas FSBFC Daugavpils
31
L
25/06/2026
BFC DaugavpilsRiga
00
D
20/06/2026
BFC DaugavpilsGrobiņa
10
W
16/06/2026
BFC DaugavpilsSuper Nova
00
D
12/06/2026
TukumsBFC Daugavpils
11
D
31/05/2026
FS JelgavaBFC Daugavpils
11
D

League Table

Virsliga 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Rīgas FSRīgas FS35285287:24+6389WWWWW
2RigaRiga35258295:33+6283DWWWW
3AudaAuda36227763:39+2473WWWLW
4BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils3614101243:38+552DWWWW
5FK LiepajaFK Liepaja361491351:50+151WDDWL
6Super NovaSuper Nova361171836:54-1840DDLLL
7FS JelgavaFS Jelgava36981941:61-2035WLLLL
8GrobiņaGrobiņa366111928:66-3829LLLWL
9TukumsTukums365102145:69-2425LLDLL
10Ogre UnitedOgre United36472534:89-5519LDLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Rīgas FSRīgas FS3587:2489
2RigaRiga3595:3383
3AudaAuda3663:3973
4BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils3643:3852
5FK LiepajaFK Liepaja3651:5051
6Super NovaSuper Nova3636:5440
7FS JelgavaFS Jelgava3641:6135
8GrobiņaGrobiņa3628:6629
9TukumsTukums3645:6925
10Ogre UnitedOgre United3634:8919

About the BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava forecast

The forecasts for this Virsliga match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

BFC Daugavpils and FS Jelgava in the Virsliga table

The table shows a wide gap: BFC Daugavpils are 4th in the Virsliga, while FS Jelgava sit 7th, 17 points behind. League goal record so far: BFC Daugavpils 43-38, FS Jelgava 41-61. The full standings are on the Virsliga Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.