Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia Prediction

Ticha, Varna 11/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
4.0 / 10
AI Best Pick
74%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.27
SignalGOODModel53%SurpriseMediumGap-4.6%
Value Analysis
61%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 2.5 Goals
1.87
SignalSOLIDModel61%SurpriseMediumGap+8.2%
Cherno More Varna Rest
5 days
Lokomotiv Sofia Rest
4 days

Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia: result, form and history

Cherno More Varna and Lokomotiv Sofia drew 2-2 in the First League on 11 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their 10 previous meetings averaged 2.2 goals, with both teams scoring in 4 of them. Lokomotiv Sofia tend to win more corners, 6.5 a game to 2.4 for Cherno More Varna.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
50%2.00
X
27%3.45
2
23%3.50
Double Chance
1X
77%1.27
X2
50%1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
33%1.70
No
67%2.02
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.3 + 0.93 = 2.23
Over 1.5
63%1.25
Over 2.5
38%1.87
Over 3.5
24%3.15
Under 1.5
37%3.50
Under 2.5
62%1.87
Under 3.5
76%1.32
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

6'celso sidney
15'Angel Lyaskov
34'Krasimir Stanoev
37'Idris·Bounaas
45+3'Bozhidar Katsarov
46'Ivan Yordanov INRyan Bidounga out
46'Georgi Minchev INDimitar Kostadinov out
46'Reyan Daskalov INAntonio Miguel Tavares Eiro de Carvalho out
57'Christian Tomov
58'celso sidney INPetar Dimitrov Andreev out
61'caruzo caue INAnte Aralica out
62'Ventsislav Kerchev
64'Spas Delev
69'Asen Donchev
77'Dimitar Kostadinov
78'Kaloyan Kostov INnikola neychev out
79'Petar Dimitrov Andreev INMiguel barandas out
79'Mohamed Achi Bouakline INPadilla Jorge out
86'Ventsislav Kerchev INbandaro joao out
87'Ante Aralica

Lineups

Cherno More Varna
4-2-3-1Coach: Ilian Iliev
Lokomotiv Sofia
4-2-3-1Coach: L. Penev
K. Tomov81K. Tomov
V. Kerchev37V. Kerchev
L. Squadrone5L. Squadrone
Z. Atanasov3Z. Atanasov
A. Donchev8A. Donchev
David Teles24D. Teles
I. Bounaas99I. Bounaas
Celso Sidney10C. Sidney
V. Panayotov71V. Panayotov
M. Achi11M. Achi
G. Lazarov19G. Lazarov
M. Velichkov99M. Velichkov
R. Daskalov22R. Daskalov
K. Kostov3K. Kostov
B. Katsarov44B. Katsarov
A. Lyaskov14A. Lyaskov
E. Dost5E. Dost
K. Stanoev31K. Stanoev
Caue Caruzo77C. Caruzo
I. Yordanov8I. Yordanov
S. Delev7S. Delev
G. Minchev9G. Minchev

Cherno More Varna Substitutes

18P. Andreev58'for celso sidney79'for Miguel barandas
50E. Tombak
14A. Todorov
17I. Tasev
9J. Padilla79'for Mohamed Achi Bouakline
13E. Nyagolov
22N. Kostadinov
26João Bandaró86'for Ventsislav Kerchev
31D. Hristov
29B. Beyhan
7M. Barandas79'replaced by Petar Dimitrov Andreev

Lokomotiv Sofia Substitutes

11A. Taoui
29A. Aralica61'for caruzo caue87'
91R. Bidounga46'for Ivan Yordanov
6Eirô46'for Reyan Daskalov
20D. Kostadinov46'for Georgi Minchev77'
24A. Lyubenov
16M. Medfai
26K. Miloshev
42N. Neychev78'for Kaloyan Kostov
17M. Papazov
71N. Penev

Match Stats

Cherno More VarnaLokomotiv Sofia
58%Ball Possession42%
9Corner Kicks5
4Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
12Total Shots8
4Shots on Goal3
8Shots off Goal5
0Blocked Shots0
0Free Kicks0

Team Comparison

Cherno More VarnaCherno More Varna
Lokomotiv SofiaLokomotiv Sofia
1480Elo Rating 1422
1.22Attack 1.13
2.52Defense 1.08
66%Hit Rate 17%
7.6Shots per Game 8.8
2.8Shots on Target 3.7
2.4Corners per Game 6.5
3.7Cards per Game 3.1

AI Insights

📊Home Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

Cherno More VarnaCherno More Varna
  • No tendency data available
Lokomotiv SofiaLokomotiv Sofia
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 67% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0.4 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

Cherno More VarnaCherno More Varna5Wins · 50%
Draws330%
Lokomotiv SofiaLokomotiv Sofia2Wins · 20%
2.2Avg Goals
40%Both teams scored4 of 10
50%3+ goals5 of 10

Previous meetings

First League22/11/2025
Cherno More VarnaLokomotiv Sofia
01
First League18/07/2025
Lokomotiv SofiaCherno More Varna
11
First League03/12/2024
Cherno More VarnaLokomotiv Sofia
40
First League04/08/2024
Lokomotiv SofiaCherno More Varna
21
First League04/04/2024
Cherno More VarnaLokomotiv Sofia
30
First League01/10/2023
Lokomotiv SofiaCherno More Varna
00
First League29/10/2022
Cherno More VarnaLokomotiv Sofia
21
First League10/07/2022
Lokomotiv SofiaCherno More Varna
01
First League27/02/2022
Lokomotiv SofiaCherno More Varna
03
First League18/09/2021
Cherno More VarnaLokomotiv Sofia
11

Recent Form

Cherno More VarnaCherno More Varna
1W3D6L
06/09/2026
Lokomotiv PlovdivCherno More Varna
10
L
30/08/2026
CSKA SofiaCherno More Varna
31
L
21/08/2026
Cherno More VarnaDunav Ruse
31
W
14/08/2026
CSKA 1948Cherno More Varna
41
L
09/08/2026
Cherno More VarnaLudogorets
23
L
01/08/2026
Botev PlovdivCherno More Varna
10
L
26/07/2026
Cherno More VarnaSpartak Varna
03
L
19/07/2026
Botev VratsaCherno More Varna
11
D
11/07/2026
Cherno More VarnaDunav Ruse
11
D
08/07/2026
Cherno More VarnaDobrudzha
22
D
Lokomotiv SofiaLokomotiv Sofia
0W5D5L
06/09/2026
Lokomotiv SofiaLudogorets
12
L
31/08/2026
Dunav RuseLokomotiv Sofia
22
D
17/08/2026
Arda KardzhaliLokomotiv Sofia
31
L
08/08/2026
Lokomotiv SofiaCSKA 1948
13
L
31/07/2026
Slavia SofiaLokomotiv Sofia
11
D
25/07/2026
Lokomotiv SofiaLevski Sofia
12
L
21/07/2026
Botev PlovdivLokomotiv Sofia
11
D
11/07/2026
Lokomotiv SofiaTeuta Durrës
00
D
04/07/2026
Lokomotiv SofiaDukagjini
33
D
22/05/2026
Spartak VarnaLokomotiv Sofia
30
L

League Table

First League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1CSKA SofiaCSKA Sofia14104032:9+2334WDWWD
2Levski SofiaLevski Sofia13102125:8+1732LWDWD
3LudogoretsLudogorets1393126:11+1530DWLWW
4CSKA 1948CSKA 19481492333:16+1729DWWLW
5Botev PlovdivBotev Plovdiv1472523:21+223DWLWW
6Arda KardzhaliArda Kardzhali1463520:22-221LWDLD
7Spartak VarnaSpartak Varna1444615:25-1016WLLWL
8Slavia SofiaSlavia Sofia142849:9014DDDLL
9Cherno More VarnaCherno More Varna1434714:22-813DWWLD
10Dunav RuseDunav Ruse1433816:23-712DLWWD
11Lokomotiv PlovdivLokomotiv Plovdiv143388:18-1012WLDDD
12Septemvri SofiaSeptemvri Sofia1432912:25-1311WLLLL
13Botev VratsaBotev Vratsa1424811:24-1310LLDLD
14Lokomotiv SofiaLokomotiv Sofia1416715:26-119LLDDW
#TeamMPGPts
1CSKA SofiaCSKA Sofia1432:934
2Levski SofiaLevski Sofia1325:832
3LudogoretsLudogorets1326:1130
4CSKA 1948CSKA 19481433:1629
5Botev PlovdivBotev Plovdiv1423:2123
6Arda KardzhaliArda Kardzhali1420:2221
7Spartak VarnaSpartak Varna1415:2516
8Slavia SofiaSlavia Sofia149:914
9Cherno More VarnaCherno More Varna1414:2213
10Dunav RuseDunav Ruse1416:2312
11Lokomotiv PlovdivLokomotiv Plovdiv148:1812
12Septemvri SofiaSeptemvri Sofia1412:2511
13Botev VratsaBotev Vratsa1411:2410
14Lokomotiv SofiaLokomotiv Sofia1415:269
Conference LeaguePromotionRelegation

About the Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage is the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% means strong statistical confidence; 45-65% points to a competitive, open match; below 45% means the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for information and entertainment only.

Cherno More Varna and Lokomotiv Sofia in the First League table

In the First League table, Cherno More Varna are 9th and Lokomotiv Sofia 14th, 4 points apart. League goal record so far: Cherno More Varna 14-22, Lokomotiv Sofia 15-26. The full standings are on the First League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Some of the data for this fixture is limited, so the model gives it a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.