Chicago Fire vs New York City FC Prediction
USA · Regular Season - 28
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
71%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.28
SignalGOODModel50%SurpriseMediumGap-7.1%
Value Analysis
65%Trust
Corners Total
Corners Over 8.5
1.55
SignalSOLIDModel65%SurpriseMediumGap+4.1%
Chicago Fire Rest
3 days
New York City FC Rest
13 days
Chicago Fire vs New York City FC: result, form and history
Chicago Fire beat New York City FC 2-1 in the Major League Soccer on 10 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
New York City FC have had the better of this fixture, winning 7 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 2.3 goals a game.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
149%1.95
X25%3.85
226%3.45
Double Chance
1X74%1.28
X251%1.84
Both Teams to Score
Yes62%1.44
No38%2.58
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.74 + 1.24 = 2.98
Over 1.582%1.14
Over 2.561%1.50
Over 3.538%2.28
Under 1.518%5.45
Under 2.539%2.50
Under 3.562%1.60
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.8 + 4.1 = 9.9
Over 8.565%1.55
Over 9.553%1.94
Over 10.540%2.50
Under 8.535%2.31
Under 9.547%1.82
Under 10.560%1.46
Cards
Projected Cards: 2 + 2.3 = 4.3
Over 3.562%1.87
Over 4.543%2.69
Under 3.538%1.87
Under 4.557%1.43
Match Events
19'Hannes WolfAssist: Agustin Ojeda
20'Djé D'AvillaFoul
43'Djé D'Avilla
45'Jonathan Bamba INMauricio Pineda out
45'Nico Cavallo INKevin O'Toole out
55'Anton SaletrosAssist: Maren Haile-Selassie
60'Alonso Martinez INLuighi Hanri Sousa Santos out
60'Andrés Perea INRaul Bicalho out
64'Mbekezeli MbokaziFoul
71'Philip Zinckernagel INPuso Dithejane out
71'Robert Lewandowski INJohan Arath Gomez out
71'Leonardo Barroso INNoah Allen out
75'Agustin Ojeda INBénie Adama Traoré out
76'James Sands INJonathan Shore out
82'Hannes Wolf INMalachi Jones out
87'Maren Haile-Selassie
90+4'Mauricio PinedaFoul
90+5'Maren Haile-Selassie INAndreas Hanche-Olsen out
Lineups
Chicago FireNew York City FC
4-2-3-1Coach: P. JansenAvg ratingAvg rating
1C. Brady
24J. Dean
3J. Elliott
4M. Mbokazi
2L. Barroso
11P. Zinckernagel
6A. Salétros
42T. D'Avilla
19J. Bamba
9R. Lewandowski
7M. Haile-Selassie
49M. Freese
24T. Gray
13T. Martins
6J. Sands
2N. Cavallo
21A. O'Neill
8A. Perea
26A. Ojeda
7N. Fernández Mercau
17H. Wolf
16A. MartínezChicago Fire Substitutes
32N. Allen71'for Leonardo Barroso
44J. Cohen
12P. Dithejane71'for Philip Zinckernagel
18J. Gómez71'for Robert Lewandowski
21A. Hanche-Olsen90+5'for Maren Haile-Selassie
35S. Oregel
22M. Pineda45'for Jonathan Bamba90+4'
29D. Poręba
15A. Gutman
New York City FC Substitutes
3M. Miazga
23Maxwell Murray
22K. O'Toole45'for Nico Cavallo
34Raul Gustavo60'for Andrés Perea
30T. Romero
32J. Shore76'for James Sands
9B. Traoré75'for Agustin Ojeda
20Luighi Hanri60'for Alonso Martinez
88M. Jones82'for Hannes Wolf
Match Stats
Chicago FireNew York City FC 47%Ball Possession53%
4Corner Kicks4
2Yellow Cards0
1Red Cards0
14Total Shots12
4Shots on Goal6
6Shots off Goal4
9Shots Inside Box6
5Shots Outside Box6
4Blocked Shots2
18Fouls10
4Offsides2
5Goalkeeper Saves2
380Total Passes417
300Passes Accurate336
10Free Kicks18
Team Comparison
Chicago FireNew York City FC1643Elo Rating 1571
1.26Attack 0.80
1.68Defense 1.41
50%Hit Rate 0%
15.9Shots per Game 12.8
5.6Shots on Target 4.2
5.1Corners per Game 5.7
2.4Cards per Game 1.3
AI Insights
⚽High Goal Expectancy2.98 goals
📉Home Underperforming
📉Away Underperforming
Game State Tendencies
Chicago Fire- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0.4 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
New York City FC- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
Chicago Fire0Wins · 0%Draws330%
New York City FC7Wins · 70%
7Wins · 70%2.3Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored5 of 10
40%3+ goals4 of 10
Previous meetings
26/07/2026New York City FCChicago Fire31
14/09/2025Chicago FireNew York City FC13
25/05/2025New York City FCChicago Fire31
25/08/2024New York City FCChicago Fire22
14/07/2024Chicago FireNew York City FC00
23/10/2023New York City FCChicago Fire10
05/03/2023Chicago FireNew York City FC11
22/08/2022Chicago FireNew York City FC02
22/05/2022New York City FCChicago Fire10
28/10/2021New York City FCChicago Fire10
Recent Form
Chicago Fire3W4D3L
07/10/2026Chicago Fire
Vancouver Whitecaps
CharlotteChicago Fire
Nashville SCChicago FireChicago Fire
New England RevolutionChicago Fire
Inter Miami
Toronto FCChicago Fire
Seattle SoundersChicago Fire
New York Red BullsChicago Fire
Chicago FireVancouver Whitecaps31
W27/09/2026CharlotteChicago Fire01
W20/09/2026Nashville SCChicago Fire30
L13/09/2026Chicago FireNew England Revolution12
L10/09/2026Chicago FireInter Miami11
D06/09/2026Toronto FCChicago Fire44
D29/08/2026Seattle SoundersChicago Fire22
D26/08/2026
MonterreyChicago Fire
23/08/2026MonterreyChicago Fire21
LNew York Red BullsChicago Fire11
D20/08/2026
Orlando City SCChicago Fire
Orlando City SCChicago Fire12
WNew York City FC1W4D5L
27/09/2026
Atlanta United FCNew York City FCNew York City FCNew York Red Bulls
Real Salt LakeNew York City FCNew York City FCNew England RevolutionNew York City FCNashville SCToronto FCNew York City FCNew England RevolutionNew York City FC
FC CincinnatiNew York City FCNew York City FC
Philadelphia Union
Atlanta United FCNew York City FC22
D19/09/2026New York City FCNew York Red Bulls01
L13/09/2026Real Salt LakeNew York City FC02
W10/09/2026New York City FCNew England Revolution12
L05/09/2026New York City FCNashville SC00
D30/08/2026Toronto FCNew York City FC11
D23/08/2026New England RevolutionNew York City FC11
D20/08/2026FC CincinnatiNew York City FC21
L17/08/2026New York City FCPhiladelphia Union23
L14/08/2026New York City FC
Necaxa
New York City FCNecaxa12
LLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 30 | 20 | 7 | 3 | 64:23 | +41 | 67 | DWWWW |
| 2 | Inter Miami | 30 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 73:51 | +22 | 55 | WWWLD |
| 3 | New England Revolution | 30 | 16 | 4 | 10 | 49:41 | +8 | 52 | WWLLW |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 52:44 | +8 | 48 | LLWWW |
| 5 | Charlotte | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 53:45 | +8 | 47 | DLWLW |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 61:48 | +13 | 46 | DWWWW |
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 30 | 12 | 5 | 13 | 58:70 | -12 | 41 | WDWLL |
| 8 | FC Cincinnati | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 62:71 | -9 | 39 | WLLWL |
| 9 | New York Red Bulls | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 39:56 | -17 | 36 | LLWLW |
| 10 | Toronto FC | 30 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 46:55 | -9 | 36 | WDWLL |
| 11 |  Columbus Crew | 30 | 10 | 5 | 15 | 46:47 | -1 | 35 | WWLWW |
| 12 | New York City FC | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 43:41 | +2 | 34 | DLLDL |
| 13 |  DC United | 30 | 7 | 12 | 11 | 38:53 | -15 | 33 | LLWLD |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 30 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 37:51 | -14 | 30 | LWLDW |
| 15 |  CF Montreal | 30 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 36:60 | -24 | 25 | DLLWL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 30 | 64:23 | 67 |
| 2 | Inter Miami | 30 | 73:51 | 55 |
| 3 | New England Revolution | 30 | 49:41 | 52 |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 30 | 52:44 | 48 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 30 | 53:45 | 47 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 30 | 61:48 | 46 |
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 30 | 58:70 | 41 |
| 8 | FC Cincinnati | 30 | 62:71 | 39 |
| 9 | New York Red Bulls | 30 | 39:56 | 36 |
| 10 | Toronto FC | 30 | 46:55 | 36 |
| 11 | Columbus Crew | 30 | 46:47 | 35 |
| 12 | New York City FC | 30 | 43:41 | 34 |
| 13 | DC United | 30 | 38:53 | 33 |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 30 | 37:51 | 30 |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 30 | 36:60 | 25 |
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About the Chicago Fire vs New York City FC forecast
Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Chicago Fire and New York City FC in the Major League Soccer table
The table shows a wide gap: Chicago Fire are 4th in the Major League Soccer, while New York City FC sit 12th, 14 points behind. League goal record so far: Chicago Fire 52-44, New York City FC 43-41. The full standings are on the Major League Soccer Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.