Corinthians vs Vitoria Prediction

Corinthians
1-1
Finished
HT 0-1
Vitoria
Neo Quimica Arena, Sao Paulo·Savio Pereira Sampaio 20/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
62%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.53
SignalNEUTRALModel58%SurpriseMediumGap-3.5%
Corinthians Rest
8 days
Vitoria Rest
8 days

Corinthians vs Vitoria: the result in context

Corinthians and Vitoria drew 1-1 in the Serie A on 20 Oct 2026. Vitoria had gone in with the better form, having won 2 of their previous five against none for Corinthians.

Corinthians have had the better of this fixture, winning 3 of the 5 previous meetings, which averaged 1.8 goals a game. Referee Savio Pereira Sampaio averages 4.52 cards a game, 0.67 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
60%1.53
X
24%3.90
2
16%6.55
Double Chance
1X
84%1.11
X2
40%2.42
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%2.15
No
52%1.62
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.59 + 1.19 = 2.78
Over 1.5
73%1.33
Over 2.5
48%2.12
Over 3.5
27%3.82
Under 1.5
27%3.10
Under 2.5
52%1.71
Under 3.5
73%1.25
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.9 + 4.7 = 10.6
Over 8.5
71%1.36
Over 9.5
60%1.68
Over 10.5
49%2.07
Under 8.5
29%2.74
Under 9.5
40%2.06
Under 10.5
51%1.69
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.7 + 2.9 = 5.6
Over 3.5
81%1.18
Over 4.5
66%1.41
Under 3.5
19%4.45
Under 4.5
34%2.78

Match Events

45+1'Carlos Renê de Sousa Ferreira
53'Carlos Renê de Sousa FerreiraDissent
62'Penalty confirmedAndré
66'Yuri Alberto(Penalty)
67'Vitinho INKaio César out
79'Jesse Lingard INMatheus Bidu out
80'André INCharles out
80'Matheuzinho INZé Vitor out
80'Diego Tarzia INLucas Silva out
85'Carlos Renê de Sousa Ferreira INFabri out
89'Penalty cancelledMatheus Bidu
90+3'Yuri Alberto INGui Negão out
90+4'Caíque Gonçalves INWalace out
90+4'Erick INIgnacio Laquintana out

Lineups

Corinthians
4-2-3-1Coach: C. Seedorf
Vitoria
4-1-4-1Coach: Jair Ventura
Avg rating6.73
Avg rating6.52
Hugo Souza6.91H. Souza
Matheuzinho6.82Matheuzinho
Gabriel Paulista7.13G. Paulista
Gustavo Henrique6.813G. Henrique
F. Angileri7.226F. Angileri
Andre6.549Andre
Breno7.17Breno
Vitinho6.611Vitinho
R. Garro6.58R. Garro
J. Lingard6.777J. Lingard
Yuri Alberto7.09Y. Alberto
Lucas Arcanjo7.71L. Arcanjo
Mateusinho5.998Mateusinho
E. Brítez6.72E. Brítez
Luan Cândido6.936L. Cândido
Jamerson6.383Jamerson
E. Martínez6.66E. Martínez
Erick6.133Erick
Matheuzinho6.010Matheuzinho
Caíque6.595Caíque
D. Tarzia6.212D. Tarzia
Rene7.091Rene

Corinthians Substitutes

37Kaio César67'for Vitinho6.4
19A. Carrillo
4João Pedro
51Kauê Camargo
21Matheus Bidu79'for Jesse Lingard6.3
56Guilherme Inácio90+3'for Yuri Alberto
61Dieguinho
35Charles80'for André6.2
20P. Milans
18Pedro Raul
29Allan
5André Ramalho

Vitoria Substitutes

88Zé Vitor80'for Matheuzinho6.4
23Fabrício85'for Carlos Renê de Sousa Ferreira6.4
77I. Laquintana90+4'for Erick
20Lucas Silva80'for Diego Tarzia6.5
7Marinho
8T. Pochettino
16Rúben Ismael
79Renato Kayzer
15Walace90+4'for Caíque Gonçalves
71Yuri Sena
9Alex Bruno
26Edenilson

Match Stats

CorinthiansVitoria
68%Ball Possession32%
9Corner Kicks1
1Yellow Cards1
21Total Shots5
6Shots on Goal5
7Shots off Goal0
13Shots Inside Box3
8Shots Outside Box2
8Blocked Shots0
10Fouls14
1Offsides4
4Goalkeeper Saves5
637Total Passes306
562Passes Accurate235
13Free Kicks8

Team Comparison

CorinthiansCorinthians
VitoriaVitoria
1607Elo Rating 1625
0.86Attack 1.73
0.79Defense 1.49
0%Hit Rate 19%
17.3Shots per Game 12.6
5.1Shots on Target 5.5
7.7Corners per Game 3.3
2.9Cards per Game 2.1

AI Insights

📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

CorinthiansCorinthians
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0 in first half)
VitoriaVitoria
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.1 vs 0.6 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 5 meetings, all competitions

CorinthiansCorinthians3Wins · 60%
Draws240%
VitoriaVitoria0Wins · 0%
1.8Avg Goals
40%Both teams scored2 of 5
40%3+ goals2 of 5

Previous meetings

Serie A19/04/2026
VitoriaCorinthians
00
Serie A25/10/2025
VitoriaCorinthians
01
Serie A01/06/2025
CorinthiansVitoria
00
Serie A09/11/2024
VitoriaCorinthians
12
Serie A05/07/2024
CorinthiansVitoria
32

Referee Profile

Savio Pereira Sampaio167 matches

4.52Cards per match
4.35Yellow cards per match
0.17Red cards per match
26.8Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Savio Pereira Sampaio4.52
Other referees5.19

4.52 cards a match, 0.67 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.19).

Cards come from 150 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FlamengoFlamengo31207461:25+3667WWDWW
2PalmeirasPalmeiras31199354:22+3266WWWDW
3Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense31158849:37+1253LWDWD
4CruzeiroCruzeiro311561050:46+451WLWWL
5FluminenseFluminense31149849:39+1051LLWWL
6Atletico-MGAtletico-MG31148942:35+750WWDWD
7BahiaBahia311310844:39+549LWLLW
8SantosSantos311291048:46+245WLDWW
9Sao PauloSao Paulo311261336:35+142WWLLW
10RB BragantinoRB Bragantino311181239:36+341DWDLL
11BotafogoBotafogo311091244:48-439WDLLW
12CoritibaCoritiba311091238:49-1139LDLLD
13VitoriaVitoria311071434:45-1137DLWLD
14MirassolMirassol31991336:44-836WLDWD
15Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama30981336:43-735LDWWW
16CorinthiansCorinthians31891432:39-733DLLLL
17InternacionalInternacional317111333:40-732LDWLW
18GremioGremio317101434:44-1031LDDDL
19RemoRemo315111534:49-1526DDDLL
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc30391830:62-3218LLLDL
#TeamMPGPts
1FlamengoFlamengo3161:2567
2PalmeirasPalmeiras3154:2266
3Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense3149:3753
4CruzeiroCruzeiro3150:4651
5FluminenseFluminense3149:3951
6Atletico-MGAtletico-MG3142:3550
7BahiaBahia3144:3949
8SantosSantos3148:4645
9Sao PauloSao Paulo3136:3542
10RB BragantinoRB Bragantino3139:3641
11BotafogoBotafogo3144:4839
12CoritibaCoritiba3138:4939
13VitoriaVitoria3134:4537
14MirassolMirassol3136:4436
15Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama3036:4335
16CorinthiansCorinthians3132:3933
17InternacionalInternacional3133:4032
18GremioGremio3134:4431
19RemoRemo3134:4926
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc3030:6218
PromotionRelegation

About the Corinthians vs Vitoria forecast

The forecasts for this Serie A match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Corinthians and Vitoria in the Serie A table

In the Serie A table, Vitoria are 13th and Corinthians 16th, 4 points apart. League goal record so far: Corinthians 32-39, Vitoria 34-45. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Vitoria have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.