Atletico-MG vs Vitoria Prediction

Serie ABrazil Brazil · Regular Season - 25
Atletico-MG
2-1
Finished
HT 1-0
Vitoria
Arena MRV, Belo Horizonte· Edina Alves Batista, Brazil 29/08/2026
Atletico-MGAtletico-MG
2-1
Finished
VitoriaVitoria

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
81%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.18
SignalSOLIDModel62%RiskMediumGap-3.3%
Value Analysis
56%Trust
BTTS
Both Teams to Score
1.90
SignalHIGHModel59%RiskMediumGap+7.2%
Atletico-MG Rest
3 days
Vitoria Rest
2 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
57%1.76
X
24%3.50
2
19%4.65
Double Chance
1X
81%1.18
X2
43%2.00
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%1.90
No
44%1.80
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.57 + 1 = 2.57
Over 1.5
75%1.33
Over 2.5
50%2.06
Over 3.5
28%3.60
Under 1.5
25%3.20
Under 2.5
50%1.75
Under 3.5
72%1.25
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.4 + 4.2 = 9.6
Over 8.5
59%1.50
Over 9.5
48%1.86
Over 10.5
35%2.37
Under 8.5
41%2.47
Under 9.5
52%1.85
Under 10.5
65%1.55
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.2 + 2.6 = 4.9
Over 3.5
69%1.42
Over 4.5
50%1.95
Under 3.5
31%2.67
Under 4.5
50%1.76

Match Events

25'T. BorbasAssist: Reinier
35'D. TarziaHolding
44'A. PreciadoElbowing
46'E. Britez INMatheusinho out
59'M. CisseHolding
60'T. Borbas INGustavo Scarpa out
63'Reinier
69'Alex Bruno INRene out
69'D. Tarzia INMatheuzinho out
69'Emmanuel Martinez INErick out
75'A. Minda INDudu out
81'Caique Goncalves INWalace out
87'Erick
90'Reinier INCaua out
90'Alexsander INVitor Hugo out

Lineups

Atletico-MG
4-2-3-1Coach: Eduardo Dominguez
Vitoria
4-1-4-1Coach: Ventura Jair
Gabriel Delfim1G. DelfimGabriel Delfim
Ángelo Preciado23Á. PreciadoÁngelo Preciado
Natanael2NatanaelNatanael
Vitor Fernandes Chaves Teixeira40V. Fernandes Chaves TeixeiraVitor Fernandes Chaves Teixeira
Kauã Pascini36K. PasciniKauã Pascini
Tomás Pérez25T. PérezTomás Pérez
Alexsander5AlexsanderAlexsander
Mamady Cissé39M. CisséMamady Cissé
Reinier19ReinierReinier
Alan Minda27A. MindaAlan Minda
Thiago Borbas18T. BorbasThiago Borbas
Lucas Arcanjo1L. ArcanjoLucas Arcanjo
Emanuel Brítez2E. BrítezEmanuel Brítez
Cacá25CacáCacá
Luan Cândido36L. CândidoLuan Cândido
Jamerson83JamersonJamerson
Emmanuel Martínez6E. MartínezEmmanuel Martínez
Marinho7MarinhoMarinho
Tomás Pochettino8T. PochettinoTomás Pochettino
Caique Gonçalves95C. GonçalvesCaique Gonçalves
Diego Tarzia12D. TarziaDiego Tarzia
Alex Bruno9A. BrunoAlex Bruno

Atletico-MG Substitutes

31Robert AlvesG
53Pedro TocantinsD
6Renan LodiD
14Vitor HugoD
15Kevin CastañoM
48GutteM
28Tomás CuelloF
21Alan FrancoM
10Gustavo ScarpaM
29Cauã Campos SoaresF
9Mateo CassierraF
92DuduF

Vitoria Substitutes

71Yuri SenaG
26EdenilsonM
98MateusinhoD
13RamonD
15WalaceD
11OsvaldoF
88Zé VitorM
10MatheuzinhoM
33ErickF
91Renê SousaF
23Fabrício SantosF
79Renato KayzerF

Match Stats

Atletico-MGVitoria
61%Ball Possession39%
4Corner Kicks4
2Yellow Cards1
18Total Shots13
8Shots on Goal2
6Shots off Goal4
12Shots Inside Box7
6Shots Outside Box6
4Blocked Shots7
12Fouls11
2Offsides0
1Goalkeeper Saves6
624Total Passes379
568Passes Accurate313
91%Pass Accuracy83%

Team Comparison

Atletico-MGAtletico-MG
VitoriaVitoria
1744Elo Rating 1635
1.42Attack 0.93
1.58Defense 1.60
58%Hit Rate 23%
12.4Shots per Game 12.7
4.4Shots on Target 4.4
3.8Corners per Game 4.1
0.9Cards per Game 2.6

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+109 Elo
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Atletico-MGAtletico-MG
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.3 vs 0.1 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
VitoriaVitoria
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Based on 5 historical meetings

Atletico-MG 0%Draw 36%64% Vitoria
3.05Avg Goals
50%BTTS Rate
50%Over 2.5

Recent Form

Atletico-MGAtletico-MG
2W3D0L
26/08/2026
CruzeiroAtletico-MG
11
D22/08/2026
InternacionalAtletico-MG
00
D20/08/2026
Atletico-MGRB Bragantino
22
D
16/08/2026
Atletico-MGGremio
30
W
13/08/2026
RB BragantinoAtletico-MG
01
W
VitoriaVitoria
2W0D3L
27/08/2026
Vasco DA GamaVitoria
10
L
23/08/2026
VitoriaBahia
02
L
16/08/2026
VitoriaBotafogo
10
W
10/08/2026
FlamengoVitoria
20
L07/08/2026
VitoriaAtletico Paranaense
40
W

Referee Profile

Edina Alves Batista, Brazil · 8 matches analysed

4.9Avg Yellows
5.2Avg Cards
24.3Avg Fouls
Stricter than 82% of referees analysed

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FlamengoFlamengo27176453:22+3157WWWWL
2PalmeirasPalmeiras27168347:21+2656WDDWL
3Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense27137741:31+1046DLDWD
4BahiaBahia271210542:33+946WWWWD
5FluminenseFluminense27129641:35+645LWDWW
6CruzeiroCruzeiro27126939:39042LWLWW
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG26116935:31+439WLWDW
8CoritibaCoritiba27108937:38-138DLWWD
9RB BragantinoRB Bragantino261061032:29+336DLLWD
10SantosSantos2698939:39035WWWDW
11BotafogoBotafogo27981041:43-235WDDLL
12Sao PauloSao Paulo26961131:30+133LWWLD
13VitoriaVitoria27961227:39-1233DWLLW
14CorinthiansCorinthians27881128:29-132LLLLL
15MirassolMirassol27781231:42-1129DWLDD
16GremioGremio27771330:38-828LLLWL
17Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama26771229:41-1228WLWLL
18InternacionalInternacional276101130:35-528WLLDD
19RemoRemo27581431:45-1423LLLLD
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc26381528:52-2417LWLWD
#TeamMPGPts
1FlamengoFlamengo2753:2257
2PalmeirasPalmeiras2747:2156
3Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense2741:3146
4BahiaBahia2742:3346
5FluminenseFluminense2741:3545
6CruzeiroCruzeiro2739:3942
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG2635:3139
8CoritibaCoritiba2737:3838
9RB BragantinoRB Bragantino2632:2936
10SantosSantos2639:3935
11BotafogoBotafogo2741:4335
12Sao PauloSao Paulo2631:3033
13VitoriaVitoria2727:3933
14CorinthiansCorinthians2728:2932
15MirassolMirassol2731:4229
16GremioGremio2730:3828
17Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama2629:4128
18InternacionalInternacional2730:3528
19RemoRemo2731:4523
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc2628:5217
PromotionRelegation

Atletico-MG vs Vitoria Prediction

Our AI model has analysed this Serie A fixture using team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history. The forecasts cover six independent markets - each probability is a separate model calculation, not derived from the match winner result.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About Serie A

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Key Factors for This Match

Atletico-MG and Vitoria have met 5 times recently, averaging 3.05 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.