Atletico-MG vs Vitoria Prediction

Atletico-MG
2-1
Finished
HT 1-0
Vitoria
Arena MRV, Belo Horizonte·Edina Alves Batista, Brazil 29/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
81%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.18
SignalSTRONGModel62%SurpriseMediumGap-3.3%
Value Analysis
56%Trust
BTTS
Both Teams to Score
1.90
SignalNEUTRALModel59%SurpriseMediumGap+7.2%
Atletico-MG Rest
3 days
Vitoria Rest
2 days

Atletico-MG vs Vitoria: result, form and history

Atletico-MG beat Vitoria 2-1 in the Serie A on 29 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Vitoria have had the better of this fixture, winning 3 of the 5 previous meetings, which averaged 3.4 goals a game. Atletico-MG tend to win more corners, 5.8 a game to 3.0 for Vitoria.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
57%1.76
X
24%3.50
2
19%4.65
Double Chance
1X
81%1.18
X2
43%2.00
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%1.90
No
44%1.80
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.57 + 1 = 2.57
Over 1.5
75%1.33
Over 2.5
50%2.06
Over 3.5
28%3.60
Under 1.5
25%3.20
Under 2.5
50%1.75
Under 3.5
72%1.25
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.4 + 4.2 = 9.6
Over 8.5
59%1.50
Over 9.5
48%1.86
Over 10.5
35%2.37
Under 8.5
41%2.47
Under 9.5
52%1.85
Under 10.5
65%1.55
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.2 + 2.6 = 4.9
Over 3.5
69%1.42
Over 4.5
50%1.95
Under 3.5
31%2.67
Under 4.5
50%1.76

Match Events

25'T. BorbasAssist: Reinier
35'D. TarziaHolding
44'A. PreciadoElbowing
46'E. Britez INMatheusinho out
59'M. CisseHolding
60'T. Borbas INGustavo Scarpa out
63'Reinier
69'Alex Bruno INRene out
69'D. Tarzia INMatheuzinho out
69'Emmanuel Martinez INErick out
75'A. Minda INDudu out
81'Caique Goncalves INWalace out
87'Erick
90'Reinier INCaua out
90'Alexsander INVitor Hugo out

Lineups

Atletico-MG
4-2-3-1Coach: Eduardo Dominguez
Vitoria
4-1-4-1Coach: Ventura Jair
Avg rating7.00
Avg rating6.64
Gabriel DelfimC6.31G. Delfim
Ángelo Preciado7.223Á. Preciado
Natanael6.62Natanael
Vitor Fernandes Chaves Teixeira7.240V. Fernandes Chaves Teixeira
Kauã Pascini6.536K. Pascini
Tomás Pérez7.325T. Pérez
Alexsander7.25Alexsander
Mamady Cissé7.039M. Cissé
Reinier8.619Reinier
Alan Minda6.727A. Minda
Thiago Borbas7.018T. Borbas
Lucas ArcanjoC7.21L. Arcanjo
Emanuel Brítez6.32E. Brítez
Cacá7.325Cacá
Luan Cândido6.336L. Cândido
Jamerson6.283Jamerson
Emmanuel Martínez6.36E. Martínez
Marinho6.97Marinho
Tomás Pochettino6.78T. Pochettino
Caique Gonçalves6.295C. Gonçalves
Diego Tarzia6.012D. Tarzia
Alex Bruno6.39A. Bruno

Atletico-MG Substitutes

31Robert Alves
53Pedro Tocantins
6Renan Lodi
14Vitor Hugo90'for Alexsander
15Kevin Castaño
48Gutte
28Tomás Cuello
21Alan Franco
10Gustavo Scarpa60'for T. Borbas6.7
29Cauã Campos Soares90'for Reinier
9Mateo Cassierra
92Dudu75'for A. Minda6.7

Vitoria Substitutes

71Yuri Sena
26Edenilson
98Mateusinho46'for E. Britez6.9
13Ramon
15Walace81'for Caique Goncalves6.5
11Osvaldo
88Zé Vitor
10Matheuzinho69'for D. Tarzia6.9
33Erick69'for Emmanuel Martinez87'7.9
91Renê Sousa69'for Alex Bruno6.3
23Fabrício Santos
79Renato Kayzer

Match Stats

Atletico-MGVitoria
61%Ball Possession39%
4Corner Kicks5
2Yellow Cards1
18Total Shots14
8Shots on Goal3
6Shots off Goal4
12Shots Inside Box7
6Shots Outside Box7
4Blocked Shots7
12Fouls13
2Offsides0
2Goalkeeper Saves6
636Total Passes395
579Passes Accurate329
91%Pass Accuracy83%

Team Comparison

Atletico-MGAtletico-MG
VitoriaVitoria
1704Elo Rating 1604
0.33Attack 1.15
1.30Defense 1.71
0%Hit Rate 14%
12.8Shots per Game 10.2
3.1Shots on Target 3.6
5.8Corners per Game 3.0
1.9Cards per Game 1.9

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend60% in H2H
📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Atletico-MGAtletico-MG
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
VitoriaVitoria
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.7 vs 0.4 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 5 meetings, all competitions

Atletico-MGAtletico-MG0Wins · 0%
Draws240%
VitoriaVitoria3Wins · 60%
3.4Avg Goals
60%Both teams scored3 of 5
60%3+ goals3 of 5

Previous meetings

Serie A14/03/2026
VitoriaAtletico-MG
20
Serie A31/08/2025
VitoriaAtletico-MG
10
Serie A14/04/2025
Atletico-MGVitoria
22
Serie A05/10/2024
Atletico-MGVitoria
22
Serie A20/06/2024
VitoriaAtletico-MG
42

Referee Profile

Edina Alves Batista138 matches

5.02Cards per match
4.80Yellow cards per match
0.22Red cards per match
27.8Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Edina Alves Batista5.02
Other referees4.97

5.02 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.97).

Cards come from 129 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FlamengoFlamengo34237471:29+4276WWWWW
2PalmeirasPalmeiras342110362:23+3973WDWWW
3CruzeiroCruzeiro341861055:48+760WWWWL
4FluminenseFluminense34169955:42+1357WWLLL
5Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense341591051:43+854LLDLW
6BahiaBahia341411950:45+553LWDLW
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG341481244:40+450LLLWW
8RB BragantinoRB Bragantino341381344:39+547WWLDW
9SantosSantos3412111150:49+147LDDWL
10Sao PauloSao Paulo341281439:39044DLDWW
11BotafogoBotafogo341191446:53-742WLLWD
12CoritibaCoritiba341191440:51-1142LWLLD
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama331181443:50-741WLWLD
14MirassolMirassol3410101439:48-940WLDWL
15VitoriaVitoria341081635:51-1638LLDDL
16InternacionalInternacional349111438:42-438WLWLD
17CorinthiansCorinthians349101536:42-637DWLDL
18GremioGremio349101538:47-937LWWLD
19RemoRemo346111737:57-2029LWLDD
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc33492033:68-3521LLWLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FlamengoFlamengo3471:2976
2PalmeirasPalmeiras3462:2373
3CruzeiroCruzeiro3455:4860
4FluminenseFluminense3455:4257
5Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense3451:4354
6BahiaBahia3450:4553
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG3444:4050
8RB BragantinoRB Bragantino3444:3947
9SantosSantos3450:4947
10Sao PauloSao Paulo3439:3944
11BotafogoBotafogo3446:5342
12CoritibaCoritiba3440:5142
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama3343:5041
14MirassolMirassol3439:4840
15VitoriaVitoria3435:5138
16InternacionalInternacional3438:4238
17CorinthiansCorinthians3436:4237
18GremioGremio3438:4737
19RemoRemo3437:5729
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc3333:6821
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About the Atletico-MG vs Vitoria forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Atletico-MG and Vitoria in the Serie A table

In the Serie A table, Atletico-MG are 7th and Vitoria 15th, 12 points apart. League goal record so far: Atletico-MG 44-40, Vitoria 35-51. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.