Corinthians vs Santos Prediction

Corinthians
0-1
Finished
HT 0-1
Santos
Neo Química Arena, Sao Paulo·Wilton Pereira Sampaio, Brazil 30/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.9 / 10
Value Analysis
53%Trust
BTTS
Both Teams to Score
1.95
SignalNEUTRALModel46%SurpriseMediumGap+5.9%
Corinthians Rest
6 days
Santos Rest
3 days

Corinthians vs Santos: result, form and history

Santos beat Corinthians 1-0 in the Serie A on 30 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their 10 previous meetings averaged 2.4 goals, with both teams scoring in 7 of them.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
52%1.85
X
24%3.40
2
24%4.40
Double Chance
1X
76%1.20
X2
48%1.92
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%1.95
No
47%1.77
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.41 + 0.91 = 2.32
Over 1.5
72%1.36
Over 2.5
45%2.18
Over 3.5
23%3.98
Under 1.5
28%2.92
Under 2.5
55%1.65
Under 3.5
77%1.23
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.3 + 4.2 = 9.5
Over 8.5
59%1.46
Over 9.5
47%1.75
Over 10.5
35%2.25
Under 8.5
41%2.54
Under 9.5
53%2.00
Under 10.5
65%1.58
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.4 + 2.6 = 5
Over 3.5
69%-
Over 4.5
55%-
Under 3.5
31%-
Under 4.5
45%-

Match Events

10'A. Barreal
20'Willian AraoTripping
24'Gustavo Henrique INC. Oliva out
31'Gabriel Paulista
33'C. Oliva
45+2'R. GarroRoughing
45+4'Raniele
45+4'Lucas Verissimo
64'Allan INPedro Raul out
67'Gabriel Bontempo INRony out
73'A. Barreal IND. Fernandes out
73'Gabriel Barbosa INB. Rollheiser out
77'Dieguinho INGui Negao out
84'Raniele INM. Pereira out

Lineups

Corinthians
4-2-3-1Coach: Fernando Diniz
Santos
4-2-3-1Coach: Cuca
Avg rating6.81
Avg rating6.61
Hugo Souza7.01H. Souza
Matheuzinho6.92Matheuzinho
Gabriel Paulista6.93G. Paulista
Gustavo Henrique6.513G. Henrique
Matheus Bidu6.321M. Bidu
Allan7.029Allan
Raniele7.214Raniele
Kaio César6.637K. César
Rodrigo GarroC7.28R. Garro
Dieguinho6.761Dieguinho
Memphis Depay7.010M. Depay
Gabriel Brazão7.077G. Brazão
Igor Vinícius6.318I. Vinícius
Lucas Veríssimo6.64L. Veríssimo
Luan Peres6.314L. Peres
Gonzalo Escobar6.631G. Escobar
Gustavinho6.248Gustavinho
Willian Arão6.915W. Arão
Gabriel Bontempo6.78G. Bontempo
NeymarC7.210Neymar
Álvaro Barreal6.322Á. Barreal
Gabriel Barbosa6.39G. Barbosa

Corinthians Substitutes

18Pedro Raul64'for Allan6.9
51Kauê
20Pedro Milans
46Hugo
4João Pedro Tchoca
26Fabrizio Angileri
55Iago Machado
35Charles
23Matheus Pereira84'for Raniele6.6
80Alex Santana
56Gui Negão77'for Dieguinho6.5
64Luiz Fernando

Santos Substitutes

28Christian Oliva24'for Gustavo Henrique33'7.2
11Rony67'for Gabriel Bontempo6.3
1Diogenes
26João Paulo Ananias
38Rafael Gonzaga
32Benjamín Rollheiser73'for Gabriel Barbosa6.6
27Davizinho73'for A. Barreal6.6
81Samuel Mendes
30Miguelito
17Gustavo Caballero
16Thaciano
21Moisés

Match Stats

CorinthiansSantos
62%Ball Possession38%
8Corner Kicks1
3Yellow Cards3
18Total Shots8
2Shots on Goal4
10Shots off Goal2
9Shots Inside Box3
9Shots Outside Box5
6Blocked Shots2
9Fouls16
2Offsides5
3Goalkeeper Saves2
590Total Passes377
515Passes Accurate290
87%Pass Accuracy77%

Team Comparison

CorinthiansCorinthians
SantosSantos
1629Elo Rating 1753
1.15Attack 0.94
1.69Defense 1.82
23%Hit Rate 17%
20.4Shots per Game 17.0
5.1Shots on Target 5.9
5.6Corners per Game 5.6
3.1Cards per Game 3.0

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend70% in H2H
🔥Derby Match
📉Home Underperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

CorinthiansCorinthians
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.2 vs 0 in first half)
SantosSantos
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 67% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.7 vs 0.3 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

CorinthiansCorinthians4Wins · 40%
Draws440%
SantosSantos2Wins · 20%
2.4Avg Goals
70%Both teams scored7 of 10
40%3+ goals4 of 10

Previous meetings

Serie A15/03/2026
SantosCorinthians
11
Paulista - A122/01/2026
SantosCorinthians
11
Serie A16/10/2025
SantosCorinthians
31
Serie A18/05/2025
CorinthiansSantos
10
Paulista - A109/03/2025
CorinthiansSantos
21
Paulista - A113/02/2025
CorinthiansSantos
21
Paulista - A107/02/2024
SantosCorinthians
10
Serie A29/10/2023
CorinthiansSantos
11
Serie A22/06/2023
SantosCorinthians
02
Paulista - A126/02/2023
SantosCorinthians
22
Clássico AlvinegroFull head-to-head record

Referee Profile

Wilton Pereira Sampaio313 matches

5.06Cards per match
4.83Yellow cards per match
0.23Red cards per match
26.5Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Wilton Pereira Sampaio5.06
Other referees5.05

5.06 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.05).

Cards come from 256 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FlamengoFlamengo34237471:29+4276WWWWW
2PalmeirasPalmeiras342110362:23+3973WDWWW
3CruzeiroCruzeiro341861055:48+760WWWWL
4FluminenseFluminense34169955:42+1357WWLLL
5Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense341591051:43+854LLDLW
6BahiaBahia341411950:45+553LWDLW
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG341481244:40+450LLLWW
8RB BragantinoRB Bragantino341381344:39+547WWLDW
9SantosSantos3412111150:49+147LDDWL
10Sao PauloSao Paulo341281439:39044DLDWW
11BotafogoBotafogo341191446:53-742WLLWD
12CoritibaCoritiba341191440:51-1142LWLLD
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama331181443:50-741WLWLD
14MirassolMirassol3410101439:48-940WLDWL
15VitoriaVitoria341081635:51-1638LLDDL
16InternacionalInternacional349111438:42-438WLWLD
17CorinthiansCorinthians349101536:42-637DWLDL
18GremioGremio349101538:47-937LWWLD
19RemoRemo346111737:57-2029LWLDD
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc33492033:68-3521LLWLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FlamengoFlamengo3471:2976
2PalmeirasPalmeiras3462:2373
3CruzeiroCruzeiro3455:4860
4FluminenseFluminense3455:4257
5Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense3451:4354
6BahiaBahia3450:4553
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG3444:4050
8RB BragantinoRB Bragantino3444:3947
9SantosSantos3450:4947
10Sao PauloSao Paulo3439:3944
11BotafogoBotafogo3446:5342
12CoritibaCoritiba3440:5142
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama3343:5041
14MirassolMirassol3439:4840
15VitoriaVitoria3435:5138
16InternacionalInternacional3438:4238
17CorinthiansCorinthians3436:4237
18GremioGremio3438:4737
19RemoRemo3437:5729
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc3333:6821
PromotionRelegation

About the Corinthians vs Santos forecast

As a derby, this Serie A meeting carries extra weight; the forecasts take that context into account alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Corinthians and Santos in the Serie A table

In the Serie A table, Santos are 9th and Corinthians 17th, 10 points apart. League goal record so far: Corinthians 36-42, Santos 50-49. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.