Derry City vs Dundalk Prediction

Derry City
2-1
Finished
HT 1-0
Dundalk
Brandywell Stadium, Delhi 23/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.0 / 10
AI Best Pick
80%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.17
SignalSTRONGModel52%SurpriseMediumGap-5.3%
Derry City Rest
3 days
Dundalk Rest
6 days

Derry City vs Dundalk: result, form and history

Derry City beat Dundalk 2-1 in the Premier Division on 23 Oct 2026. It was in line with recent form: Derry City had won 3 of their previous five, compared with none for Dundalk.

Games between these two are rarely quiet: their 10 previous meetings averaged 3.3 goals, and both sides scored in 7 of them.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
54%1.75
X
26%3.80
2
20%4.04
Double Chance
1X
80%1.22
X2
46%2.00
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%1.55
No
42%2.30
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.86 + 0.96 = 2.82
Over 1.5
80%1.17
Over 2.5
59%1.58
Over 3.5
37%2.45
Under 1.5
20%4.55
Under 2.5
41%2.29
Under 3.5
63%1.50
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

12'James Clarke
43'Darragh BurnsFoul
53'Keith BuckleyFoul
56'Declan McDaid INHarry Groome out
56'Egor Vassenin INRobert Cornwall out
59'Trevor ClarkeFoul
67'Adam O'Reilly INDarragh Markey out
69'Tyreke Wilson INHarvey Warren out
69'Trevor Clarke INCian dillon out
69'Keith Buckley INshane tracey out
71'Michael DuffyAssist: Darragh Burns
74'Michael Duffy INGavin Whyte out
74'Darragh Burns INKévin Santos out
79'shane tracey
87'James Clarke INTerence Doherty out
87'Cameron Dummigan INConor Barry out
89'Ellis ChapmanFoul

Lineups

Derry City
3-4-3Coach: Mark Connolly
Dundalk
4-2-3-1Coach: C. Kilduff
Avg rating6.84
Avg rating6.16
B. Maher7.11B. Maher
C. Dummigan7.323C. Dummigan
J. Stott6.74J. Stott
Patrick McClean7.23P. McClean
D. Burns7.112D. Burns
A. O'Reilly6.78A. O'Reilly
E. Chapman6.514E. Chapman
B. Fleming6.019B. Fleming
J. Clarke8.215J. Clarke
N. Twisk6.317N. Twisk
M. Duffy8.27M. Duffy
E. Minogue6.81E. Minogue
B. Burns6.73B. Burns
T. Grivosti5.744T. Grivosti
E. Vassenin5.416E. Vassenin
T. Wilson6.522T. Wilson
K. Buckley5.618K. Buckley
A. Dervin6.66A. Dervin
D. McDaid5.927D. McDaid
D. Horgan6.17D. Horgan
T. Clarke5.915T. Clarke
R. Teahan6.111R. Teahan

Derry City Substitutes

22C. Barr87'for Cameron Dummigan6.6
32T. Doherty87'for James Clarke6.6
24Brooklyn Lyons-Foster
10D. Markey67'for Adam O'Reilly6.4
13Tom Norcott
29T. Smith
11G. Whyte74'for Michael Duffy6.4
21Kévin Santos74'for Darragh Burns6.1
25Christy Grogan

Dundalk Substitutes

14Norman Garbett
10Leonardo Gaxha
8H. Groome56'for Declan McDaid6.2
12L. Mulligan
17S. Tracey69'for Keith Buckley79'7.0
5H. Warren69'for Tyreke Wilson5.9
9C. Dillon69'for Trevor Clarke6.3
24R. Cornwall56'for Egor Vassenin6.2
13P. Cherrie

Match Stats

Derry CityDundalk
53%Ball Possession47%
2Corner Kicks5
2Yellow Cards2
16Total Shots12
8Shots on Goal5
4Shots off Goal4
10Shots Inside Box6
6Shots Outside Box6
4Blocked Shots3
11Fouls13
5Offsides0
3Goalkeeper Saves5
499Total Passes424
401Passes Accurate320
12Free Kicks11

Team Comparison

Derry CityDerry City
DundalkDundalk
1616Elo Rating 1493
1.24Attack 1.02
2.34Defense 0.78
81%Hit Rate 0%
16.6Shots per Game 14.0
5.1Shots on Target 4.9
4.7Corners per Game 5.3
1.8Cards per Game 1.6

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+123 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy2.82 goals
📈BTTS Trend70% in H2H
📉Home Underperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Derry CityDerry City
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
DundalkDundalk
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0.2 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

Derry CityDerry City5Wins · 50%
Draws440%
DundalkDundalk1Wins · 10%
3.3Avg Goals
70%Both teams scored7 of 10
70%3+ goals7 of 10

Previous meetings

FAI Cup06/09/2026
Derry CityDundalk
42
Premier Division29/05/2026
DundalkDerry City
21
Premier Division10/04/2026
DundalkDerry City
22
Premier Division13/02/2026
Derry CityDundalk
22
Premier Division18/10/2024
DundalkDerry City
02
Premier Division09/08/2024
Derry CityDundalk
11
Premier Division31/05/2024
DundalkDerry City
00
Premier Division05/04/2024
Derry CityDundalk
41
Premier Division01/09/2023
DundalkDerry City
13
Premier Division15/05/2023
Derry CityDundalk
30

Recent Form

Derry CityDerry City
6W2D2L
19/10/2026
Derry CitySt Patrick's Athl.
10
W
16/10/2026
Drogheda UnitedDerry City
20
L
10/10/2026
Galway UnitedDerry City
02
W
18/09/2026
Derry CityGalway United
10
W
14/09/2026
WaterfordDerry City
22
D
11/09/2026
ShelbourneDerry City
01
W
06/09/2026
Derry CityDundalk
42
W
30/08/2026
Derry CityShamrock Rovers
33
D
21/08/2026
BohemiansDerry City
53
L
14/08/2026
UCDDerry City
12
W
DundalkDundalk
2W2D6L
17/10/2026
Sligo RoversDundalk
11
D
02/10/2026
DundalkBohemians
12
L
18/09/2026
DundalkShelbourne
23
L
14/09/2026
DundalkSt Patrick's Athl.
04
L
11/09/2026
WaterfordDundalk
11
D
06/09/2026
Derry CityDundalk
42
L
28/08/2026
Drogheda UnitedDundalk
23
W
21/08/2026
DundalkGalway United
12
L
15/08/2026
DundalkCastlebar Celtic
80
W
07/08/2026
Shamrock RoversDundalk
32
L

League Table

Premier Division 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Shamrock RoversShamrock Rovers35208758:35+2368WLWWW
2BohemiansBohemians35188960:42+1862LWLWW
3St Patrick's Athl.St Patrick's Athl.35179953:28+2560DLLWW
4ShelbourneShelbourne3512131050:47+349WWWDW
5Derry CityDerry City3511141048:45+347WWLWD
6Galway UnitedGalway United3510121346:51-542DLWDL
7DundalkDundalk3510121352:58-642LDLLL
8WaterfordWaterford359131351:59-840WWLLD
9Drogheda UnitedDrogheda United359101642:57-1537LWLLW
10Sligo RoversSligo Rovers35592126:64-3824LDLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Shamrock RoversShamrock Rovers3558:3568
2BohemiansBohemians3560:4262
3St Patrick's Athl.St Patrick's Athl.3553:2860
4ShelbourneShelbourne3550:4749
5Derry CityDerry City3548:4547
6Galway UnitedGalway United3546:5142
7DundalkDundalk3552:5842
8WaterfordWaterford3551:5940
9Drogheda UnitedDrogheda United3542:5737
10Sligo RoversSligo Rovers3526:6424
Relegation

About the Derry City vs Dundalk forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Derry City and Dundalk in the Premier Division table

Derry City and Dundalk are close in the Premier Division table, 5th and 7th, with 5 points between them. League goal record so far: Derry City 48-45, Dundalk 52-58. The full standings are on the Premier Division Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Derry City have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.