Fortaleza EC vs Novorizontino Prediction

Fortaleza EC
1-0
Finished
HT 1-0
Novorizontino
Estádio Governador Plácido Castelo, Fortaleza·Savio Pereira Sampaio, Brazil 18/07/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
77%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.22
SignalHIGHModel45%SurpriseMediumGap-4.7%
Fortaleza EC Rest
5 days
Novorizontino Rest
5 days

Fortaleza EC vs Novorizontino: the result in context

Fortaleza EC beat Novorizontino 1-0 in the Serie B on 18 Jul 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Referee Savio Pereira Sampaio averages 4.53 cards a game, 0.65 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
41%2.08
X
33%3.15
2
26%3.75
Double Chance
1X
74%1.25
X2
59%1.70
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%1.85
No
49%1.83
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.3 + 1.1 = 2.40
Over 1.5
72%1.36
Over 2.5
47%2.17
Over 3.5
23%3.76
Under 1.5
28%2.90
Under 2.5
53%1.65
Under 3.5
77%1.22
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.5 + 4.9 = 10.4
Over 8.5
68%1.43
Over 9.5
56%1.73
Over 10.5
43%2.18
Under 8.5
32%2.60
Under 9.5
44%2.02
Under 10.5
57%1.61
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.8 + 2.7 = 5.6
Over 3.5
80%-
Over 4.5
64%1.58
Under 3.5
20%-
Under 4.5
36%2.20

Match Events

3'Vitinho
40'Joao RicardoDelay of game
45+1'NerisUnsportsmanlike conduct
45+1'RobsonUnsportsmanlike conduct
46'Luiz Fernando INWelliton out
46'Helio Borges INJuninho out
56'RodriguinhoFoul
61'Romulo INVinicius Paiva out
61'Luis Oyama INTavinho out
64'Lucas GazalFoul
65'Rodriguinho INMailton out
65'Rodrigo INPierre out
68'Robson INC. Ortiz out
68'Reidiney INCarlao out
74'Neris INLuan Freitas out
79'Pedro Henrique INPaulo Baya out

Lineups

Fortaleza EC
4-2-3-1Coach: Carpini Thiago
Novorizontino
4-4-2Coach: Moreira Enderson
Avg rating6.96
Avg rating6.84
João RicardoC7.51J. Ricardo
Rodriguinho6.675Rodriguinho
Neris6.723Neris
Lucas Gazal7.23L. Gazal
Gabriel Fuentes7.218G. Fuentes
Lucas Sasha7.288L. Sasha
Rodrigo Santos7.229R. Santos
Pedro Henrique6.916P. Henrique
Vitinho7.911Vitinho
Luiz Fernando6.732L. Fernando
Juan Miritello6.29J. Miritello
Jordi7.793Jordi
Nilson Castrillón6.520N. Castrillón
Gabriel Bahia7.526G. Bahia
Patrick7.34Patrick
Maykon Jesus6.666M. Jesus
Hélio Borges6.577H. Borges
Matheus Bianqui7.717M. Bianqui
Luís Oyama6.26L. Oyama
Reidiney6.741Reidiney
Rômulo6.510Rômulo
RobsonC6.211Robson

Fortaleza EC Substitutes

31Welliton46'for Luiz Fernando7.2
22Maílton65'for Rodriguinho6.9
5Pierre65'for Rodrigo6.7
4Luan Freitas74'for Neris6.6
77Paulo Baya79'for Pedro Henrique6.7
25Vinicius Silvestre
6Tomás Cardona
38Lucca Prior
37Ryan Gustavo
8Ronald
10Lucas Crispim
19Lucas Emanoel

Novorizontino Substitutes

50Juninho46'for Helio Borges6.9
16Vinicius Paiva61'for Romulo6.6
15Tavinho61'for Luis Oyama6.9
9Carlão68'for Reidiney6.5
8Christian Ortíz68'for Robson7.2
31César
3Carlinhos
14Eduardo Brock
22Alexis Alvarino
27Diego Mathias
18Leo Naldi

Match Stats

Fortaleza ECNovorizontino
38%Ball Possession62%
10Corner Kicks6
4Yellow Cards1
17Total Shots19
4Shots on Goal4
8Shots off Goal10
12Shots Inside Box10
5Shots Outside Box9
5Blocked Shots5
17Fouls6
2Offsides0
3Goalkeeper Saves3
333Total Passes530
264Passes Accurate452
79%Pass Accuracy85%

Team Comparison

Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC
NovorizontinoNovorizontino
1701Elo Rating 1745
1.32Attack 2.27
2.21Defense 2.18
34%Hit Rate 81%
14.3Shots per Game 16.8
3.7Shots on Target 5.9
6.2Corners per Game 5.5
2.7Cards per Game 3.0

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend

Game State Tendencies

Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Starts fast: scores more in 1st half (0.9 vs 0.4 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half, then tightens up after the break
NovorizontinoNovorizontino
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Starts fast: scores more in 1st half (1.5 vs 0.8 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half and can tire late

Recent Form

Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC
4W1D5L
NovorizontinoNovorizontino
5W3D2L
12/07/2026
Operario-PRNovorizontino
21
L
04/07/2026
NovorizontinoAtletico Goianiense
30
W
27/06/2026
NovorizontinoVila Nova
21
W
23/06/2026
Ponte PretaNovorizontino
02
W
15/06/2026
NovorizontinoNautico Recife
22
D
11/06/2026
GoiasNovorizontino
04
W
31/05/2026
São BernardoNovorizontino
11
D
28/05/2026
Chapecoense-scNovorizontino
22
D
23/05/2026
NovorizontinoCeara
21
W
21/05/2026
NovorizontinoChapecoense-sc
02
L

Referee Profile

Savio Pereira Sampaio169 matches

4.53Cards per match
4.35Yellow cards per match
0.18Red cards per match
26.8Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Savio Pereira Sampaio4.53
Other referees5.18

4.53 cards a match, 0.65 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.18).

Cards come from 152 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie B 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1NovorizontinoNovorizontino372010766:32+3470WWWDW
2JuventudeJuventude371911749:26+2368WDWDD
3Vila NovaVila Nova37199953:38+1566WDLDW
4CriciumaCriciuma371881138:31+762LWLWW
5Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC371614744:33+1162LDDWD
6CRBCRB371771357:51+658WLWLD
7GoiasGoias371771339:41-258WWWDW
8Atletico GoianienseAtletico Goianiense371513945:35+1058WDLDD
9Operario-PROperario-PR381691351:50+157WWLWL
10Sport RecifeSport Recife3714131050:42+855LDWLD
11São BernardoSão Bernardo3814111354:44+1053DLWWL
12Botafogo SPBotafogo SP371491445:39+651WDWWW
13Athletic ClubAthletic Club3811151246:46048DLWLD
14CuiabaCuiaba3711141234:32+247LLLLL
15Nautico RecifeNautico Recife3812101641:51-1046LLWLD
16CearaCeara3711101638:47-943LLLDL
17AvaiAvai371171935:47-1240WLLDW
18LondrinaLondrina38982147:59-1235WLLLW
19America MineiroAmerica Mineiro37852427:55-2829WWWWL
20Ponte PretaPonte Preta38362921:81-6015LLLDD
#TeamMPGPts
1NovorizontinoNovorizontino3766:3270
2JuventudeJuventude3749:2668
3Vila NovaVila Nova3753:3866
4CriciumaCriciuma3738:3162
5Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC3744:3362
6CRBCRB3757:5158
7GoiasGoias3739:4158
8Atletico GoianienseAtletico Goianiense3745:3558
9Operario-PROperario-PR3851:5057
10Sport RecifeSport Recife3750:4255
11São BernardoSão Bernardo3854:4453
12Botafogo SPBotafogo SP3745:3951
13Athletic ClubAthletic Club3846:4648
14CuiabaCuiaba3734:3247
15Nautico RecifeNautico Recife3841:5146
16CearaCeara3738:4743
17AvaiAvai3735:4740
18LondrinaLondrina3847:5935
19America MineiroAmerica Mineiro3727:5529
20Ponte PretaPonte Preta3821:8115
PromotionRelegation

About the Fortaleza EC vs Novorizontino forecast

The forecasts for this Serie B match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage is the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% means strong statistical confidence; 45-65% points to a competitive, open match; below 45% means the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for information and entertainment only.

Fortaleza EC and Novorizontino in the Serie B table

In the Serie B table, Novorizontino are 1st and Fortaleza EC 5th, 8 points apart. League goal record so far: Fortaleza EC 44-33, Novorizontino 66-32. The full standings are on the Serie B Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Fortaleza EC have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Novorizontino have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. Fortaleza EC and Novorizontino have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.